Changhua Holding (605018) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 7.4B CNY

A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.26 – ¥19.77 · fair‑value band ¥3.98 – ¥6.26 · the ¥12.74 price screens above the ¥5.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Changhua Holding (605018) currently trades at ¥12.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.12, implying the stock looks roughly 59.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Changhua Holding generated revenue of 2.2B CNY at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 193M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.98 (bear case) to ¥6.26 (bull case); at ¥12.74, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -60%, 605018 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥3.94) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.95). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Changhua Holding Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of automotive metal parts in China and internationally. It offers fasteners, such as bolts, nuts, and special-shaped parts.

Full company description

Changhua Holding Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of automotive metal parts in China and internationally. It offers fasteners, such as bolts, nuts, and special-shaped parts. The company also engages in sunroof reinforcement plate assembly, instrument assembly, trunk partition assembly, rear subframe reinforcement, wheel cover, floor center crossbeam, front subframe, etc.; and IPU fixing bracket, electric motor bracket, VCU bracket, battery fast and slow charging socket bracket, ECU bracket, rear subframe support, battery protection bracket, etc. for new energy vehicles sectors. In addition, it offers aluminum die-casting products mainly include body parts and chassis parts; and special fittings and fastener sets for carbon ceramic brake system. Further, the company provides metal parts, such as high-strength fasteners, bent parts, nut plates, stamped and welded parts, stamped aluminum parts, cast aluminum parts, carbon ceramic brake system structural parts, etc. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Cixi, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Changhua Holding reported revenue of ¥2.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥95.2M in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.

605018 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.