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Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc (605080) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.0B CNY

ZN Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc 605080 · SHG
Price¥21.14
Fair Value¥20.00
Upside-5.4%
Quality59/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 16.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.69% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: High Range ¥13.37 – ¥28.74 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price +6.2% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥13.37 to ¥28.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥55.56 ¥13.30 Fair Value ¥20.00 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥13.30 – ¥55.56 · fair‑value band ¥13.37 – ¥28.74 · the ¥21.14 price screens above the ¥20.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc (605080) currently trades at ¥21.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥20.00, implying the stock looks roughly 5.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc generated revenue of 1.0B CNY at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 180M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥13.37 (bear case) to ¥28.74 (bull case); at ¥21.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -5%, 605080 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥7.93 ¥11.23 ¥16.33 80
Residual Income ¥12.96 ¥13.98 ¥17.00 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.30 ¥12.29 ¥17.20 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥7.93 ¥11.43 ¥16.98 38
Owner Earnings ¥11.69 ¥17.68 ¥27.15 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥8.30 ¥12.36 ¥17.75 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.39 ¥22.44 ¥33.57 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥17.67 ¥30.90 ¥45.67 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥7.92 ¥11.62 ¥17.02 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥11.36 ¥18.68 ¥29.46 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥14.08 ¥24.60 ¥38.97 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥9.20 ¥36.66 ¥49.82 54
Lynch FV ¥9.10 ¥13.00 ¥16.90 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥9.10 ¥13.00 ¥16.90 46
EPV ¥12.17 ¥13.68 ¥14.99 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.78 ¥3.54 ¥5.36 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.78 ¥3.06 ¥3.74 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥22.31 ¥29.75 ¥37.19 63
P/S Multiple ¥6.51 ¥8.68 ¥10.85 58
P/B Multiple ¥17.24 ¥22.99 ¥28.74 55
EV/EBIT ¥19.65 ¥25.33 ¥31.01 53
EV/EBITDA ¥17.70 ¥22.74 ¥27.77 54
EV/Revenue ¥8.68 ¥11.28 ¥13.88 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥7.78 ¥10.43 ¥15.56 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥7.93 ¥11.23 ¥16.33 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.30 ¥12.29 ¥17.20 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥12.96 ¥13.98 ¥17.00 76
ROIC Compounder ¥12.17 ¥13.68 ¥14.99 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥16.48 ¥23.55 ¥30.61 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥23.55) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.7%
Net margin 16.0%
Return on equity 7.6%
Free cash flow 65.0M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 18.0
More key figures
Operating margin 22.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.19
Dividend yield 0.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -25.0%
Net cash 180M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc. engages in the research, design, development, production, and sale of outdoor sports products in China and internationally. Its products primarily include automatic inflatable mattresses, inflatable beds, waterproof bags, ice bags, pillows, seat cushions, TPU composite fabrics, shelters, and other products.

Full company description

Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc. engages in the research, design, development, production, and sale of outdoor sports products in China and internationally. Its products primarily include automatic inflatable mattresses, inflatable beds, waterproof bags, ice bags, pillows, seat cushions, TPU composite fabrics, shelters, and other products. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Taizhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc reported revenue of ¥1.0B in FY2025 versus ¥842M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥191M in FY2025, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.0B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.1%
Revenue +5.0%/yr
FY21 ¥842M
FY22 ¥946M
FY23 ¥823M
FY24 ¥1.0B
FY25 ¥1.0B
Net income −3.4%/yr
FY21 ¥220M
FY22 ¥213M
FY23 ¥131M
FY24 ¥185M
FY25 ¥191M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/605080

Peer Group

Leisure · 190 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.38× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.91× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 6.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.5× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 26 · sector 14
FUTURE 29 · sector 18
PAST 30 · sector 19
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 14 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 HK$74.15 HK$119.29 +61%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$160.20 HK$227.30 +42%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $36.44 $16.16 -56%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $81.55 $83.38 +2%
Life Time Group LTH $42.15 $16.15 -62%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $114.78 $37.79 -67%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$14.80 HK$29.26 +98%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,255 PLN 3,714 PLN -29%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.82 ¥39.17 +4%
Asmodee Group ASMDEEB kr 145.70 kr 41.90 -71%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc (605080) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥20.00 versus a price of ¥21.14, about −5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 605080?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc is ¥20.00 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥21.14.
What is the quality score of 605080?
Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc (605080)?
Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 605080?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc is about 16.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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