Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. ¥11.35, price ¥25.30, upside -55.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥16.16 – ¥52.65 · fair‑value band ¥10.53 – ¥13.21 · the ¥25.30 price screens above the ¥11.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co., Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and sells elevator components in China and internationally. The company provides escalator components, straight elevator components and elevator metal materials.
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Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co., Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and sells elevator components in China and internationally. The company provides escalator components, straight elevator components and elevator metal materials. It also offers skirts, covers, railings, handrail swivels, drive assemblies, handrail guides, and ladder guides for escalators; guide rail brackets, tractor brackets, counterweight frames, protective screen components, buffer brackets, car upper/lower beams, straight beams, car roof/bottom, car bottom brackets, and car walls for straight ladders; and handrails, siding boards, cold-formed profiles, public transport type cover, and stents. In addition, it is involved in the research, development, production and sales of electrochemical energy storage container systems; new energy power plant business; and component research and development. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd. and change its name to Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co., Ltd. in December 2025. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Danyang, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286) currently trades at ¥25.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.35, implying the stock looks roughly 122.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥20.31 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥25.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.24, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥10.53 (bear) to ¥13.21 (bull), the price of ¥25.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 199M CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.3B CNY (≈ $635M) · P/E ratio 31.6 · P/S ratio 2.93 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8000 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −55%, 605286 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥10.53Fair Value ¥11.35Bull ¥13.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4974 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Compare Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 264 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−55% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−28% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)31.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.14× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA72.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.35 versus a price of ¥25.30, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 605286?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is ¥11.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.30.
What is the quality score of 605286?
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥10.53, optimistic scenario ¥13.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.35, about −55% upside versus a price of ¥25.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥10.53, optimistic scenario ¥13.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. it is ¥11.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥25.30. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 605286 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥25.30, fair value ¥11.35, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 605286?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.35). For Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. the two are ¥13.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. at about 4.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.30; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 605286?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥10.53, base ¥11.35, optimistic ¥13.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥25.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 605286?
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 72.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 605286 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. trades at ¥25.30, about 51% below its 52-week high of ¥51.46 and 21% above the low of ¥20.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥25.30, calculated fair value ¥11.35 (−55%), Quality Score 39/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 605286 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥25.30. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.35, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 4.3B CNY (≈ $635M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 2.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. are ¥0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 0.5% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is growing −28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. are growing −88.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is −462M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. (605286) carry?
The net debt of Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co. Ltd. is 396M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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