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Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co (605286) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.9B CNY

JT Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co 605286 · SHG
Price¥23.28
Fair Value¥20.11
Upside-13.6%
Quality39/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 9.3% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/13)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥14.22 – ¥25.13 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price −4.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from ¥14.22 (bear) to ¥25.13 (bull), base ¥20.11. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 39/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥52.65 ¥16.16 Fair Value ¥20.11 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥16.16 – ¥52.65 · fair‑value band ¥14.22 – ¥25.13 · the ¥23.28 price screens above the ¥20.11 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co (605286) currently trades at ¥23.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥20.11, implying the stock looks roughly 13.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co generated revenue of 2.1B CNY at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue declined 24.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at 396M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥14.22 (bear case) to ¥25.13 (bull case); at ¥23.28, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -14%, 605286 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥10.84 ¥11.82 ¥15.58 76
ROIC Compounder ¥6.28 ¥7.32 ¥8.21 72
Gordon GGM ¥2.60 ¥4.51 ¥6.81 70
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥8.04 ¥19.47 ¥25.16 54
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.45 ¥4.93 ¥6.41 46
EPV ¥6.28 ¥7.32 ¥8.21 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.60 ¥4.51 ¥6.81 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.60 ¥3.82 ¥5.11 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥18.63 ¥24.84 ¥31.04 63
P/S Multiple ¥15.08 ¥20.11 ¥25.13 58
P/B Multiple ¥15.08 ¥20.11 ¥25.13 55
EV/EBIT ¥13.56 ¥18.18 ¥22.80 53
EV/EBITDA ¥14.78 ¥19.80 ¥24.83 54
EV/Revenue ¥9.59 ¥13.83 ¥18.07 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥6.40 ¥8.57 ¥12.79 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥10.84 ¥11.82 ¥15.58 76
ROIC Compounder ¥6.28 ¥7.32 ¥8.21 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥14.22 ¥20.31 ¥26.41 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥20.31) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.82). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -24.7%
Net margin 9.3%
Return on equity 13.3%
Free cash flow −462M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 36.6
More key figures
Operating margin -154%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.8000
EPS growth (YoY) -75.7%
Net debt 396M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co., Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and sells elevator components in China and internationally. The company provides escalator components, straight elevator components and elevator metal materials.

Full company description

Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co., Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and sells elevator components in China and internationally. The company provides escalator components, straight elevator components and elevator metal materials. It also offers skirts, covers, railings, handrail swivels, drive assemblies, handrail guides, and ladder guides for escalators; guide rail brackets, tractor brackets, counterweight frames, protective screen components, buffer brackets, car upper/lower beams, straight beams, car roof/bottom, car bottom brackets, and car walls for straight ladders; and handrails, siding boards, cold-formed profiles, public transport type cover, and stents. In addition, it is involved in the research, development, production and sales of electrochemical energy storage container systems; new energy power plant business; and component research and development. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd. and change its name to Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co., Ltd. in December 2025. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Danyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.1B in FY2025 versus ¥2.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥199M in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.1B CNY
Latest YoY
−15.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−4.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.2%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y)
+7.7%
Revenue −1.7%/yr
FY21 ¥2.3B
FY22 ¥2.5B
FY23 ¥2.4B
FY24 ¥2.5B
FY25 ¥2.1B
Net income +7.2%/yr
FY21 ¥151M
FY22 ¥144M
FY23 ¥217M
FY24 ¥246M
FY25 ¥199M

605286 screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/605286

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 243 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −14% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -154% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -25% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.27× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.29× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.30× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 26.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 15 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 35
PAST 53 · sector 21
HEALTH 87 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 25

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co (605286) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥20.11 versus a price of ¥23.28, about −14% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 605286?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co is ¥20.11 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥23.28.
What is the quality score of 605286?
Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co (605286)?
Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 605286?
The net profit margin of Jiangsu Tongli Tianqi Technology Co is about 9.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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