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Huzhou Gas Co Ltd (6661) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$1.0B

HG Huzhou Gas Co Ltd 6661 · HK
PriceHK$4.95
Fair ValueHK$8.68
Upside+75.5%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.01% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: High Range HK$6.19 – HK$11.68 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.67 to HK$8.68 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −0.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 76% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$6.19 to HK$11.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$5.77 HK$3.53 Fair Value HK$8.68 Jul 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

49‑month range HK$3.53 – HK$5.77 · fair‑value band HK$6.19 – HK$11.68 · the HK$4.95 price screens below the HK$8.68 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Huzhou Gas Co Ltd (6661) currently trades at HK$4.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.68, implying the stock looks roughly 75.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Huzhou Gas Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.3B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 9.3 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.19 (bear case) to HK$11.68 (bull case); at HK$4.95, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 76%, 6661 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.62 HK$4.17 HK$5.09 80
Residual Income HK$4.84 HK$5.01 HK$5.10 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$6.86 HK$10.08 HK$14.07 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.57 HK$4.14 HK$5.18 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.40 HK$2.66 HK$3.13 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$6.86 HK$10.06 HK$14.80 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.29 HK$10.79 HK$15.50 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$5.45 HK$7.66 HK$10.34 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$5.20 HK$7.61 HK$10.42 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.64 HK$8.05 HK$10.83 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.61 HK$6.16 HK$7.77 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.18 HK$5.31 HK$6.45 54
EPV HK$7.37 HK$8.18 HK$8.85 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.31 HK$8.41 HK$10.51 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.95 HK$7.94 HK$9.92 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.95 HK$7.94 HK$9.92 55
EV/EBIT HK$12.01 HK$15.53 HK$19.06 53
EV/EBITDA HK$11.47 HK$14.82 HK$18.18 54
EV/Revenue HK$9.98 HK$13.65 HK$17.32 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.14 HK$4.20 HK$6.27 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.62 HK$4.17 HK$5.09 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$6.86 HK$10.08 HK$14.07 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.84 HK$5.01 HK$5.10 76
ROIC Compounder HK$7.42 HK$8.34 HK$9.30 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.48 HK$6.40 HK$8.32 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$8.41) versus Growth DCF (HK$4.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.4%
Net margin 4.2%
Return on equity 11.0%
Free cash flow HK$51.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 6.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2600
Dividend yield 6.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -28.7%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Huzhou Gas Co., Ltd. engages in distributing piped natural gas and liquefied natural gas in the People's Republic of China. It constructs and installs end-user pipeline network and gas facilities for property developers, owners, and occupants of residential and non-residential properties.

Full company description

Huzhou Gas Co., Ltd. engages in distributing piped natural gas and liquefied natural gas in the People's Republic of China. It constructs and installs end-user pipeline network and gas facilities for property developers, owners, and occupants of residential and non-residential properties. The company also sells household gas appliances and relevant equipment, energy, and distributed photovoltaic power. In addition, it provides leasing of properties; and solar power generation technology services, solar thermal power generation equipment and photovoltaic equipment. Huzhou Gas Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Huzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Huzhou Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.3B in FY2025 versus HK$1.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$94.7M in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.3B
Latest YoY
−4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.7%
Revenue +5.2%/yr
FY21 HK$1.9B
FY22 HK$2.6B
FY23 HK$2.4B
FY24 HK$2.4B
FY25 HK$2.3B
Net income −5.7%/yr
FY21 HK$120M
FY22 HK$104M
FY23 HK$111M
FY24 HK$118M
FY25 HK$94.7M

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Huzhou Gas Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$8.68 +76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Huzhou Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6661

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +76% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth 0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.45× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 23
FUTURE 2 · sector 0
PAST 44 · sector 34
HEALTH 99 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.94 €31.58 +9%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $169.59 $85.67 -49%
NiSource Inc NI $42.01 $28.59 -32%
Uniper SE UN0 €47.45 €48.32 +2%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$6.76 HK$4.79 -29%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹177.95 ₹130.21 -27%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹654.05 ₹101.36 -85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.32 ¥25.71 +48%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$47.16 HK$107.98 +129%
China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 ¥7.26 ¥7.37 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Huzhou Gas Co Ltd (6661) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.68 versus a price of HK$4.95, about +76% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6661?
Our model-based fair value for Huzhou Gas Co Ltd is HK$8.68 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$4.95.
What is the quality score of 6661?
Huzhou Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Huzhou Gas Co Ltd (6661)?
Huzhou Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6661?
The net profit margin of Huzhou Gas Co Ltd is about 4.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Huzhou Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Huzhou Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.01% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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