Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Oriental System Technology Inc. TWD 9.95, price TWD 62.30, upside -84.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 9.95 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −28.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -7.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(4/11)
!Narrow moat22/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range 20.10 TWD – 70.70 TWD · fair‑value band 8.01 TWD – 11.90 TWD · the 62.30 TWD price screens above the 9.95 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Oriental System Technology Inc. engages in the production and sale of infrared sensors and optoelectronic components in Taiwan. It offers thermopile array modules, thermopile sensors, and NDIR gas sensors. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819) currently trades at 62.30 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.95 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 526.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 18.83 TWD per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the 62.30 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6.42 TWD, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 8.01 TWD (bear) to 11.90 TWD (bull), the price of 62.30 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Oriental System Technology Inc. reported revenue of 224M TWD in FY2025 versus 306M TWD in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −16.7M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.1B TWD (≈ $66.5M) · P/S ratio 5.87 · EPS (TTM) −0.4900 TWD · Net margin −7.4% · Return on equity −5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.5% · Operating margin 5.2% · Revenue (TTM) 224M TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −84%, 6819 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8.01 TWDFair Value 9.95 TWDBull 11.90 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
40.9% (2020) → 4.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.1% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.30× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oriental System Technology Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6819
Frequently asked questions
Is Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9.95 TWD versus a price of 62.30 TWD, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6819?
Our model-based fair value for Oriental System Technology Inc. is 9.95 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 62.30 TWD.
What is the quality score of 6819?
Oriental System Technology Inc. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9.95 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.01 TWD, optimistic scenario 11.90 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oriental System Technology Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9.95 TWD, about −84% upside versus a price of 62.30 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.01 TWD, optimistic scenario 11.90 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
Oriental System Technology Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 224M TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oriental System Technology Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +28.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -28.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6819 use?
Our models discount Oriental System Technology Inc. at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.61, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oriental System Technology Inc. that is +28.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oriental System Technology Inc. grew -28.7 % a year. The price currently implies +28.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oriental System Technology Inc. (+28.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.34 %: that much free cash flow Oriental System Technology Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oriental System Technology Inc. it is 9.95 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 62.30 TWD. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oriental System Technology Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6819 trades above its calculated fair value: price 62.30 TWD, fair value 9.95 TWD, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6819?
No. The price is what the market pays today (62.30 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9.95 TWD). For Oriental System Technology Inc. the two are 52.35 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oriental System Technology Inc. worth?
The market values Oriental System Technology Inc. at about 2.1B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 62.30 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 9.95 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6819?
Our models span a range for Oriental System Technology Inc.: cautious scenario 8.01 TWD, base 9.95 TWD, optimistic 11.90 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 62.30 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oriental System Technology Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Oriental System Technology Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oriental System Technology Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 62.30 TWD, calculated fair value 9.95 TWD (−84%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6819 calculated?
We run Oriental System Technology Inc. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 9.95 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Oriental System Technology Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 62.30 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 9.95 TWD, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oriental System Technology Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11.90 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Oriental System Technology Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The market capitalisation of Oriental System Technology Inc. is 2.1B TWD (≈ $66.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oriental System Technology Inc. is 5.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
Earnings per share at Oriental System Technology Inc. are −0.4900 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The net margin of Oriental System Technology Inc. is −7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oriental System Technology Inc. is −5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oriental System Technology Inc. is −7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
The operating margin of Oriental System Technology Inc. is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819)?
Revenue at Oriental System Technology Inc. is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Oriental System Technology Inc. (6819) hold?
Oriental System Technology Inc. holds more cash than debt, 73.5M TWD net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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