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Montage Technology Co (688008) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Montage Technology Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Montage Technology Co
688008 · SHGQuality Too ExpensiveQuality growthExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value ¥89.06 · Strongly overvalued (−54%)
✓Quality 84/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +24.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 44.9% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
·0.31% dividend yield
✓Wide moat 76/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥42.73 – ¥315.89 · fair‑value band ¥55.80 – ¥137.62 · the ¥191.96 price screens above the ¥89.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Montage Technology Co., Ltd., an integrated circuit (IC) design company, provides IC-based solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure in the People's Republic of China.
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Montage Technology Co., Ltd., an integrated circuit (IC) design company, provides IC-based solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure in the People's Republic of China. The company provides components for memory modules, such as multiplexed rank registering clock driver, multiplexed rank data buffer, registering clock driver, data buffer, clock driver, SPD EEPROM with hub, temperature sensor, and power management IC, as well as server and client memory module products. It also offers DDR5 PMIC, SPD Hub, and TS; PCIe retimers; CXL Memory eXpander Controller, a Type 3 Compute Express Link DRAM memory controller; clock chips; and Jintide server platform. Montage Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Montage Technology Co (688008) currently trades at ¥191.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥89.06, implying the stock looks roughly 115.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥93.89 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥191.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥10.07, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥55.80 (bear) to ¥137.62 (bull), the price of ¥191.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Montage Technology Co reported revenue of 5.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.8%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +28.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 218B CNY (≈ $32.5B) · P/E ratio 82.7 · P/S ratio 33.9 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.22 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 41.0% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 148% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −54%, 688008 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥55.80
Fair Value ¥89.06
Bull ¥137.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.15 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
¥34.80
¥51.58
¥106.44
74
Growth DCF
¥33.23
¥61.22
¥108.24
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
¥36.92
¥61.07
¥108.48
70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
¥34.80
¥51.58
¥106.44
74
Owner Earnings
¥37.95
¥78.98
¥168.96
68
5Y Revenue Exit
¥28.38
¥43.78
¥76.03
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
¥36.92
¥61.07
¥108.48
70
5Y P/E Exit
¥46.25
¥98.66
¥170.85
65
10Y Revenue Exit
¥29.84
¥56.99
¥74.33
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
¥37.01
¥75.82
¥144.27
62
10Y P/E Exit
¥43.97
¥96.38
¥184.40
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
¥13.28
¥92.61
¥129.96
63
Lynch FV
¥44.85
¥64.07
¥83.30
61
PEG = 1.0
¥44.85
¥64.07
¥83.30
57
EPV
¥25.66
¥28.88
¥31.74
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
¥5.63
¥12.29
¥20.68
65
DDM Multi-Stage
¥5.63
¥10.07
¥12.81
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
¥41.01
¥54.68
¥68.35
63
P/S Multiple
¥19.66
¥26.21
¥32.77
58
P/B Multiple
¥24.90
¥33.20
¥41.50
55
EV/EBIT
¥43.91
¥56.08
¥68.25
63
EV/EBITDA
¥36.34
¥45.99
¥55.63
64
EV/Revenue
¥24.09
¥31.24
¥38.39
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
¥5.35
¥7.17
¥10.71
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
¥33.23
¥61.22
¥108.24
72
Rev-Margin DCF
¥30.42
¥49.02
¥87.63
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
¥13.58
¥18.07
¥75.76
64
ROIC Compounder
¥30.17
¥41.30
¥56.20
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
¥65.72
¥93.89
¥122.06
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
84/100
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Profitability
71
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
95
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+49.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.5%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
’16
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’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18% vs 32%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 43%
2025 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+38.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+50.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+43.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+38.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+33.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+28.0%
688008 screens 116% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Compare Montage Technology Co with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Chinese Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $218.29 | $197.96 | −9% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $433.24 | $476.56 | +10% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $361.99 | $272.24 | −25% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,812,000 KRW | 1,993,200 KRW | +10% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $975.26 | $148.38 | −85% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $516.13 | $122.74 | −76% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $102.94 | $35.41 | −66% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $268.70 | $78.54 | −71% |
| Arm Holdings ARM | $264.79 | $44.44 | −83% |
| Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation 688981 | ¥117.41 | ¥16.54 | −86% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Montage Technology Co (688008) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥89.06 versus a price of ¥191.96, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688008?
Our model-based fair value for Montage Technology Co is ¥89.06 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥191.96.
What is the quality score of 688008?
Montage Technology Co has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥89.06 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥55.80, optimistic scenario ¥137.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Montage Technology Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥89.06, about −54% upside versus a price of ¥191.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥55.80, optimistic scenario ¥137.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Montage Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Montage Technology Co pay a dividend?
Montage Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Montage Technology Co (688008)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Montage Technology Co would have to grow free cash flow by +49.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688008 use?
Our models discount Montage Technology Co at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.48, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Montage Technology Co that is +49.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Montage Technology Co (688008) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Montage Technology Co grew +24.5 % a year. The price currently implies +49.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Montage Technology Co (688008) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Montage Technology Co (+49.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.81 %: that much free cash flow Montage Technology Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Montage Technology Co it is ¥89.06 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥191.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Montage Technology Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 688008 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥191.96, fair value ¥89.06, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688008?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥191.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥89.06). For Montage Technology Co the two are ¥102.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Montage Technology Co worth?
The market values Montage Technology Co at about 218B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥191.96; our models calculate a fair value of ¥89.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688008?
Our models span a range for Montage Technology Co: cautious scenario ¥55.80, base ¥89.06, optimistic ¥137.62 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥191.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688008?
Montage Technology Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 82.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥89.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 18.3, P/S 39.4, EV/EBITDA 98.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Balance-sheet figures for Montage Technology Co (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 15.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688008 from its 52-week high?
Montage Technology Co trades at ¥191.96, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥288.79 and 148% above the low of ¥77.45 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥89.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Montage Technology Co?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Montage Technology Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥191.96, calculated fair value ¥89.06 (−54%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688008 calculated?
We run Montage Technology Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥89.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Montage Technology Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Montage Technology Co right now?
A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥137.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (¥55.80 to ¥137.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Montage Technology Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The market capitalisation of Montage Technology Co is 218B CNY (≈ $32.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Montage Technology Co is 33.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Earnings per share at Montage Technology Co are ¥2.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 82.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The dividend yield of Montage Technology Co is 0.3% (payout 26.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The net margin of Montage Technology Co is 41.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Montage Technology Co is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Montage Technology Co is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Montage Technology Co (688008)?
The operating margin of Montage Technology Co is 46.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Revenue at Montage Technology Co is growing +19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Montage Technology Co (688008)?
Earnings per share at Montage Technology Co are growing +52.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Montage Technology Co (688008) hold?
Montage Technology Co holds more cash than debt, 6.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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