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Traffic Control Technology Co (688015) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY

TC Traffic Control Technology Co 688015 · SHG
Price¥15.90
Fair Value¥16.49
Upside+3.7%
Quality54/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
2.50% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range ¥12.34 – ¥20.61 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥16.92 to ¥16.49 (−2.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from ¥12.34 (bear) to ¥20.61 (bull), base ¥16.49. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥41.52 ¥11.29 Fair Value ¥16.49 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥11.29 – ¥41.52 · fair‑value band ¥12.34 – ¥20.61 · the ¥15.90 price screens below the ¥16.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Traffic Control Technology Co (688015) currently trades at ¥15.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.49, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Traffic Control Technology Co generated revenue of 2.5B CNY at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥12.34 (bear case) to ¥20.61 (bull case); at ¥15.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at 4%, 688015 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥10.90 ¥11.14 ¥10.98 76
ROIC Compounder ¥18.58 ¥22.47 ¥27.61 72
Gordon GGM ¥2.11 ¥4.21 ¥6.38 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥21.19 ¥32.02 ¥50.16 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.61 ¥26.13 ¥35.91 54
Lynch FV ¥6.90 ¥9.86 ¥12.82 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥6.90 ¥9.86 ¥12.82 46
EPV ¥17.41 ¥19.02 ¥20.42 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.11 ¥4.21 ¥6.38 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.11 ¥3.64 ¥4.45 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥12.37 ¥16.49 ¥20.61 63
P/S Multiple ¥10.51 ¥14.02 ¥17.52 58
P/B Multiple ¥10.51 ¥14.02 ¥17.52 55
EV/EBIT ¥24.52 ¥30.31 ¥36.09 53
EV/EBITDA ¥26.74 ¥33.27 ¥39.79 54
EV/Revenue ¥18.86 ¥23.88 ¥28.89 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥7.06 ¥9.45 ¥14.11 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥10.90 ¥11.14 ¥10.98 76
ROIC Compounder ¥18.58 ¥22.47 ¥27.61 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥10.69 ¥15.27 ¥19.85 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥32.02) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.64). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.5B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.5%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 7.3%
Free cash flow −53.7M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 20.4
More key figures
Operating margin 11.2%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.8300
Dividend yield 2.5%
Net cash 1.2B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. provides rail transit solutions. The company offers train operation control system based on communication, interconnected CBTC system, fully automatic operation system, train control system based on vehicle-vehicle communication, intelligent train passenger service system, urban rail transit cloud platform, and …

Full company description

Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. provides rail transit solutions. The company offers train operation control system based on communication, interconnected CBTC system, fully automatic operation system, train control system based on vehicle-vehicle communication, intelligent train passenger service system, urban rail transit cloud platform, and intelligent train obstacle detection system. It also engages in the research and development of urban rail transit signal systems; and the development of system integration and system general contracting signals, as well as the provision of maintenance and other related technical services. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Traffic Control Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.5B in FY2025 versus ¥2.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥156M in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.5B CNY
Latest YoY
+16.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y)
+12.4%
Revenue −0.4%/yr
FY21 ¥2.6B
FY22 ¥2.5B
FY23 ¥2.0B
FY24 ¥2.2B
FY25 ¥2.5B
Net income −14.5%/yr
FY21 ¥291M
FY22 ¥229M
FY23 ¥89.0M
FY24 ¥83.6M
FY25 ¥156M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Traffic Control Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688015

Peer Group

Communication Equipment · 290 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside +4% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.20× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.28× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 38 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 30
PAST 29 · sector 15
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 24

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO $119.25 $43.05 -64%
Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 ¥1,094 ¥171.09 -84%
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 ¥56.50 ¥28.65 -49%
Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 ¥482.88 ¥155.05 -68%
Nokia Oyj NOK $11.25 $2.67 -76%
Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI $413.31 $190.43 -54%
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 ¥244.13 ¥32.04 -87%
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC $11.72 $15.96 +36%
Accton Technology Corporation 2345 2,090 TWD 846.28 TWD -60%
ZTE Corporation 000063 ¥40.00 ¥15.75 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Traffic Control Technology Co (688015) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.49 versus a price of ¥15.90, about +4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 688015?
Our model-based fair value for Traffic Control Technology Co is ¥16.49 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥15.90.
What is the quality score of 688015?
Traffic Control Technology Co has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Traffic Control Technology Co (688015)?
Traffic Control Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 688015?
The net profit margin of Traffic Control Technology Co is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Traffic Control Technology Co pay a dividend?
Traffic Control Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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