Traffic Control Technology Co (688015) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥16.92 to ¥16.49 (−2.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥12.34 (bear) to ¥20.61 (bull), base ¥16.49. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.29 – ¥41.52 · fair‑value band ¥12.34 – ¥20.61 · the ¥15.90 price screens below the ¥16.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Traffic Control Technology Co (688015) currently trades at ¥15.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.49, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Traffic Control Technology Co generated revenue of 2.5B CNY at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥12.34 (bear case) to ¥20.61 (bull case); at ¥15.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at 4%, 688015 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥32.02) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.64). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. provides rail transit solutions. The company offers train operation control system based on communication, interconnected CBTC system, fully automatic operation system, train control system based on vehicle-vehicle communication, intelligent train passenger service system, urban rail transit cloud platform, and …
Full company description
Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. provides rail transit solutions. The company offers train operation control system based on communication, interconnected CBTC system, fully automatic operation system, train control system based on vehicle-vehicle communication, intelligent train passenger service system, urban rail transit cloud platform, and intelligent train obstacle detection system. It also engages in the research and development of urban rail transit signal systems; and the development of system integration and system general contracting signals, as well as the provision of maintenance and other related technical services. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Traffic Control Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.5B in FY2025 versus ¥2.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥156M in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 290 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $413.31 | $190.43 | -54% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥244.13 | ¥32.04 | -87% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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