Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd stock ¥12.89, price ¥13.55, that is 4.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.29 – ¥37.17 · fair‑value band ¥10.57 – ¥17.72 · the ¥13.55 price screens above the ¥12.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. provides rail transit solutions.
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The company offers train operation control system based on communication, interconnected CBTC system, fully automatic operation system, train control system based on vehicle-vehicle communication, intelligent train passenger service system, urban rail transit cloud platform, and intelligent train obstacle detection system.
It also engages in the research and development of urban rail transit signal systems; and the development of system integration and system general contracting signals, as well as the provision of maintenance and other related technical services.
The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015) currently trades at ¥13.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.89, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥25.84 per share, and 10 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥13.55 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.66, and 7 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥10.57 (bear) to ¥17.72 (bull), the price of ¥13.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 156M CNY in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.5B CNY (≈ $382M) Small · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8500 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −5%, 688015 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥10.57Fair Value ¥12.89Bull¥17.72
Price ¥13.55 · Downside -4.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3676 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.0% vs 6.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 10%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 302 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−4.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688015
Frequently asked questions
Is Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.89 versus a price of ¥13.55, about 5% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 688015?
Our model-based fair value for Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is ¥12.89 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.55.
What is the quality score of 688015?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.89 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥10.57, optimistic scenario ¥17.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.89, about 5% lower versus a price of ¥13.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥10.57, optimistic scenario ¥17.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.10% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.42 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 2, 2026. The payout ratio is 49.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd it is ¥12.89 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥13.55. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 688015 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.55, fair value ¥12.89, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688015?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.89). For Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥0.6600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd at about 2.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.55; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688015?
Our models span a range for Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥10.57, base ¥12.89, optimistic ¥17.72 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥13.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688015?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥12.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Balance-sheet figures for Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688015 from its 52-week high?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥13.55, about 49% below its 52-week high of ¥26.46 and 2% above the low of ¥13.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥13.55, calculated fair value ¥12.89 (−5%), Quality Score 54/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688015 calculated?
We run Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥12.89 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥13.55. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.89, about 5% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The market capitalisation of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 2.5B CNY (≈ $382M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 1.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Earnings per share at Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The dividend yield of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 3.1% (payout 49.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The net margin of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
The operating margin of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Revenue at Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015)?
Earnings per share at Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd are growing +7.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015) generate?
The free cash flow of Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd is −53.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd (688015) hold?
Traffic Control Technology Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 8, 2026