Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech ¥107, price ¥97.31, upside +9.8%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥84.21 – ¥186.50 · fair‑value band ¥58.59 – ¥189.63 · the ¥97.31 price screens below the ¥106.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shanghai BOCHU Electronic Technology Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of laser processing automation products in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Planar Solutions, Pipe Solutions, 3D Solutions, and others.
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Shanghai BOCHU Electronic Technology Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of laser processing automation products in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Planar Solutions, Pipe Solutions, 3D Solutions, and others. It offers high and low power cutting controllers; heavy tube cutting controllers; plane bevel and structural steel cutting controllers; intelligent welding system; 2D cutting head; and servo set. The company also provides industrial software, including TubesT, a 3D tube nesting software for CypTube/TubePro laser cutting system; and CypNesT, a nesting software for CypCut/HypCut sheet laser cutting system. In addition, it is involved in enterprise management; technical services; sale of electronic products; automation control equipment; and mechanical parts processing. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188) currently trades at ¥97.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥106.84, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥128.10 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥97.31 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥22.43, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥58.59 (bear) to ¥189.63 (bull), the price of ¥97.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech reported revenue of 2.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 913M CNY in FY2021, a compound +24.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 42.3B CNY (≈ $6.3B) · P/E ratio 33.7 · P/S ratio 17.0 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.89 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 50.5% · Return on equity 19.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 10%, 688188 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥58.59Fair Value ¥106.84Bull ¥189.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.07 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+25.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23% vs −23%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.69% → 57%
2025 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 31.1%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price.
Compare Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 335 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)52% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
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Is Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥106.84 versus a price of ¥97.31, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 688188?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is ¥106.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥97.31.
What is the quality score of 688188?
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥106.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥58.59, optimistic scenario ¥189.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥106.84, about +10% upside versus a price of ¥97.31 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥58.59, optimistic scenario ¥189.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech pay a dividend?
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech would have to grow free cash flow by +8.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688188 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech that is +8.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech grew +30.9 % a year. The price currently implies +8.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (+8.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.81 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech it is ¥106.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥97.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688188 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥97.31, fair value ¥106.84, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688188?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥97.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥106.84). For Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech the two are ¥9.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech worth?
The market values Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech at about 42.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥97.31; our models calculate a fair value of ¥106.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688188?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech: cautious scenario ¥58.59, base ¥106.84, optimistic ¥189.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥97.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688188?
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥106.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 18.8, EV/EBITDA 33.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688188 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech trades at ¥97.31, about 45% below its 52-week high of ¥177.81 and 8% above the low of ¥90.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥106.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥97.31, calculated fair value ¥106.84 (+10%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688188 calculated?
We run Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥106.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥97.31. Our model-based fair value is ¥106.84, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥58.59 to ¥189.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 42.3B CNY (≈ $6.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 17.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech are ¥2.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 2.7% (payout 89.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The net margin of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 50.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 16.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is 59.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Revenue at Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech are growing +23.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech (688188) hold?
Shanghai Friendess Electronics Tech holds more cash than debt, 2.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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