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Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co (688251) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 2.4B CNY

HJ Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co 688251 · SHG
Price¥21.66
Fair Value¥6.50
Upside-70.0%
Quality61/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.21% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: High Range ¥6.27 – ¥7.85 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price −4.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

¥38.16 ¥8.66 Fair Value ¥6.50 Jun 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

50‑month range ¥8.66 – ¥38.16 · fair‑value band ¥6.27 – ¥7.85 · the ¥21.66 price screens above the ¥6.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co (688251) currently trades at ¥21.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.50, implying the stock looks roughly 70.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co generated revenue of 1.1B CNY at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 30.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.8%. Net debt stands at 30.8M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥6.27 (bear case) to ¥7.85 (bull case); at ¥21.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -70%, 688251 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥16.35 ¥27.41 ¥48.55 80
Residual Income ¥6.26 ¥6.19 ¥5.44 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥9.61 ¥14.42 ¥21.68 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥17.14 ¥25.27 ¥49.53 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥9.61 ¥13.26 ¥20.31 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥10.65 ¥15.45 ¥24.29 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥10.41 ¥16.50 ¥24.15 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥11.70 ¥17.87 ¥22.90 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥12.56 ¥19.88 ¥32.60 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥12.40 ¥19.42 ¥31.02 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.14 ¥14.89 ¥20.90 54
Lynch FV ¥4.80 ¥6.86 ¥8.91 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.80 ¥6.86 ¥8.91 46
EPV ¥5.70 ¥6.12 ¥6.48 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.80 ¥3.59 ¥5.44 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.80 ¥3.11 ¥3.79 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥4.71 ¥6.28 ¥7.85 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.00 ¥5.34 ¥6.67 58
P/B Multiple ¥4.00 ¥5.34 ¥6.67 55
EV/EBIT ¥8.02 ¥9.67 ¥11.32 53
EV/EBITDA ¥8.11 ¥9.80 ¥11.48 54
EV/Revenue ¥6.41 ¥7.84 ¥9.27 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.27 ¥5.72 ¥8.54 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥16.35 ¥27.41 ¥48.55 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥9.61 ¥14.42 ¥21.68 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥6.26 ¥6.19 ¥5.44 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.70 ¥6.12 ¥6.48 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.27 ¥8.96 ¥11.64 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥17.87) versus Dividend Discount (¥3.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.1%
Net margin 1.4%
Return on equity 1.8%
Free cash flow 91.2M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 158.0
More key figures
Operating margin -18.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1500
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +147%
Net debt 30.8M CNY FY2019

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd. provides smart logistics system solutions in China. It offers smart warehousing, logistic software, logistics equipment, intelligent warehouse and distribution integrated, and smart material handling solutions. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Hefei, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co reported revenue of ¥1.0B in FY2025 versus ¥539M in FY2021, a compound +17.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥31.6M in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.0B CNY
Latest YoY
+23.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.8%
Revenue +17.7%/yr
FY21 ¥539M
FY22 ¥585M
FY23 ¥665M
FY24 ¥836M
FY25 ¥1.0B
Net income −17.5%/yr
FY21 ¥68.3M
FY22 ¥70.9M
FY23 ¥42.3M
FY24 ¥42.9M
FY25 ¥31.6M

688251 screens 70% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688251

Peer Group

Software - Application · 709 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -18% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 158.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.25× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 3.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 98.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 38
PAST 7 · sector 13
HEALTH 99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 4 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

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Salesforce, Inc CRM $170.77 $182.10 +7%
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Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $384.17 $80.41 -79%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $271.87 $34.04 -87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $230.61 $379.48 +65%
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Intuit Inc INTU $291.09 $258.69 -11%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co (688251) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.50 versus a price of ¥21.66, about −70% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688251?
Our model-based fair value for Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co is ¥6.50 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥21.66.
What is the quality score of 688251?
Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co (688251)?
Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 688251?
The net profit margin of Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co is about 1.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co pay a dividend?
Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.21% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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