Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co Ltd (688303) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 40.5B CNY
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from ¥5.28 to ¥10.56 (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +5.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 67% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥15.54 – ¥82.15 · fair‑value band ¥9.10 – ¥12.04 · the ¥17.60 price screens above the ¥10.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co Ltd (688303) currently trades at ¥17.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.56, implying the stock looks roughly 40.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co Ltd generated revenue of 4.1B CNY at a net margin of -33.3%. Revenue declined 79.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 5.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.10 (bear case) to ¥12.04 (bull case); at ¥17.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -40%, 688303 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥12.28) versus Multiples (¥5.06). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of polysilicon products in China and internationally.
Full company description
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of polysilicon products in China and internationally. The company offers P-type single crystal composite feed, P-type single crystal dense materials, large and small P-type monocrystalline coral materials, N-type single crystal material, and P-type single crystal loose materials. It also provides polycrystalline loose rods and dense rods, dense bulk materials, and loose block materials. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Shihezi, China. Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Daqo New Energy Corp.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥4.8B in FY2025 versus ¥10.8B in FY2021, a compound −18.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥1.1B in FY2025.
688303 screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 693 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $487.57 | $222.03 | -54% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $360.20 | $143.38 | -60% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $278.43 | $96.18 | -65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $304.07 | $122.14 | -60% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,162 | CHF 1,498 | -53% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥75.06 | ¥68.03 | -9% |
| 500820 500820 | ₹2,757 | ₹557.43 | -80% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 456.40 | kr 169.99 | -63% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,630 | ₹696.23 | -74% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $112.81 | $71.31 | -37% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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