China Railway Harbin Group (688459) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥8.29 to ¥4.86 (−41.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range ¥7.22 – ¥11.52 · fair‑value band ¥3.65 – ¥6.08 · the ¥8.16 price screens above the ¥4.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
China Railway Harbin Group (688459) currently trades at ¥8.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.86, implying the stock looks roughly 40.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Railway Harbin Group generated revenue of 1.1B CNY at a net margin of 8.5%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 40.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.65 (bear case) to ¥6.08 (bull case); at ¥8.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -40%, 688459 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥9.69) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Railway Harbin Group of Technology Corporation researches, develops, produces, and sells rail transit safety monitoring and testing/inspection, railway professional information, and intelligent equipment products.
Full company description
China Railway Harbin Group of Technology Corporation researches, develops, produces, and sells rail transit safety monitoring and testing/inspection, railway professional information, and intelligent equipment products. The company provides 5T equipment in the field of rail transit, dynamic detection system of wheel geometry, speed control systems, automatic identification systems for vehicle number, technical management information system for passenger and freight vehicles, locomotive 6A, automatic train cleaning machines, EMU ice melting and snow removal equipment, integrated video monitoring systems, Beidou series products and digital vehicle depots, and other products. It also offers online dynamic safety monitoring and detection of various rail transit ground-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-network, such as railway EMUs, passenger cars, freight cars, locomotives, subways, etc. China Railway Harbin Group of Technology Corporation was founded in 1996 and is based in Harbin, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Railway Harbin Group reported revenue of ¥1.1B in FY2025 versus ¥1.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥111M in FY2025, compounding +6.3%/yr from FY2021.
688459 screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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