Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A ¥6.98, price ¥27.12, upside -74.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range ¥20.40 – ¥97.10 · fair‑value band ¥5.08 – ¥10.22 · the ¥27.12 price screens above the ¥6.98 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Sansec Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, and production of commercial cryptographic products and solutions for internet information security in China.
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Sansec Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, and production of commercial cryptographic products and solutions for internet information security in China. The company develops PCI-E HSM, a cryptographic hardware device that enables data confidentiality, integrity, and other cryptographic functions through digital signature and data encryption; Cloud HSM that provides multiple authentication mechanisms based on PIN, and digital certificate; and General Purpose HSM, a cryptographic device, which offers security guarantee services for the development of social informatization. It also offers Financial HSM cryptographic equipment for cryptography-based protection for ICs, such as social security cards for inter-bank transactions in the financial system; and Sansec HSM Cryptographic Module, a cryptographic device used for financial, e-government, e-commerce, and enterprise information systems. In addition, it provides typical financial solutions, big data security solutions, and internet of vehicle solutions. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489) currently trades at ¥27.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.98, implying the stock looks roughly 288.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥7.25 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥27.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.9600, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥5.08 (bear) to ¥10.22 (bull), the price of ¥27.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 554M CNY in FY2025 versus 270M CNY in FY2021, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was −43.6M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.0B CNY (≈ $596M) · P/S ratio 7.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin −37.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −74%, 688489 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.08Fair Value ¥6.98Bull ¥10.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
33.6% (2020) → −6.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.8% a year for the price.
Compare Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 709 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−74.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−37.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.32× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF15.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688489
Frequently asked questions
Is Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.98 versus a price of ¥27.12, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688489?
Our model-based fair value for Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is ¥6.98 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥27.12.
What is the quality score of 688489?
Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.98 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.08, optimistic scenario ¥10.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.98, about −74% upside versus a price of ¥27.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.08, optimistic scenario ¥10.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 561M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by +37.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688489 use?
Our models discount Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A that is +37.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A grew +22.3 % a year. The price currently implies +37.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (+37.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.23 %: that much free cash flow Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A it is ¥6.98 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥27.12. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 688489 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥27.12, fair value ¥6.98, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688489?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥27.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.98). For Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥20.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A at about 4.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥27.12; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688489?
Our models span a range for Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥5.08, base ¥6.98, optimistic ¥10.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥27.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −1.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688489 from its 52-week high?
Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥27.12, about 49% below its 52-week high of ¥53.15 and 33% above the low of ¥20.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥27.12, calculated fair value ¥6.98 (−74%), Quality Score 54/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688489 calculated?
We run Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥27.12. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.98, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥5.08 to ¥10.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The market capitalisation of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is 4.0B CNY (≈ $596M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is 7.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Earnings per share at Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A are ¥−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The dividend yield of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The net margin of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is −7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
The operating margin of Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is −37.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Revenue at Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A (688489)?
Earnings per share at Sansec Technology Co. Ltd. A are growing −79.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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