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Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group (688543) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 10.1B CNY

JG Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group 688543 · SHG
Price¥38.37
Fair Value¥16.20
Upside-57.8%
Quality62/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 16.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.17% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Moderate moat 55/100
Evidence: High Range ¥12.14 – ¥20.25 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price +2.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥20.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

¥944,911 ¥19.52 Fair Value ¥16.20 Jun 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

38‑month range ¥19.52 – ¥944,911 · fair‑value band ¥12.14 – ¥20.25 · the ¥38.37 price screens above the ¥16.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group (688543) currently trades at ¥38.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.20, implying the stock looks roughly 57.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group generated revenue of 1.4B CNY at a net margin of 16.5%. Revenue grew 24.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at 4.4M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥12.14 (bear case) to ¥20.25 (bull case); at ¥38.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -58%, 688543 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥27.76 ¥50.26 ¥91.64 80
Residual Income ¥8.56 ¥9.52 ¥14.36 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥17.75 ¥26.14 ¥38.24 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥28.60 ¥45.80 ¥92.02 38
Owner Earnings ¥19.51 ¥35.32 ¥67.23 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥17.75 ¥25.74 ¥38.26 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥20.63 ¥32.15 ¥49.35 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥23.18 ¥38.82 ¥58.22 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥20.69 ¥30.76 ¥44.21 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥22.97 ¥35.95 ¥57.70 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥24.74 ¥40.53 ¥65.99 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥6.69 ¥43.31 ¥60.59 54
Lynch FV ¥12.58 ¥17.97 ¥23.36 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥12.58 ¥17.97 ¥23.36 46
EPV ¥13.15 ¥14.35 ¥15.40 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.77 ¥12.00 ¥19.04 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.77 ¥10.12 ¥12.59 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥15.50 ¥20.66 ¥25.83 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.44 ¥11.25 ¥14.07 58
P/B Multiple ¥12.55 ¥16.73 ¥20.91 55
EV/EBIT ¥18.14 ¥22.19 ¥26.25 53
EV/EBITDA ¥17.77 ¥21.70 ¥25.63 54
EV/Revenue ¥13.07 ¥16.11 ¥19.15 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.82 ¥6.45 ¥9.63 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥27.76 ¥50.26 ¥91.64 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥17.75 ¥26.14 ¥38.24 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.56 ¥9.52 ¥14.36 76
ROIC Compounder ¥14.79 ¥18.79 ¥24.47 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥17.71 ¥25.30 ¥32.89 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥35.32) versus Asset-Based (¥6.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +24.4%
Net margin 16.5%
Return on equity 10.0%
Free cash flow 377M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 42.9
More key figures
Operating margin 12.8%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.9400
Dividend yield 2.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -32.5%
Net debt 4.4M CNY FY2022

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group Co.,Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells military products in China and internationally. The company offers missiles, rockets, solid engine power modules, safety and control modules, ammunition equipment, and fuze and intelligent control products; and civilian products.

Full company description

Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group Co.,Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells military products in China and internationally. The company offers missiles, rockets, solid engine power modules, safety and control modules, ammunition equipment, and fuze and intelligent control products; and civilian products. Its products are used in air defense and anti-missile, armored assault, counter-terrorism and emergency response, marine survey, fire suppression, and other fields. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Nanchang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group reported revenue of ¥1.4B in FY2025 versus ¥672M in FY2021, a compound +20.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥247M in FY2025, compounding +34.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.4B CNY
Latest YoY
+17.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+19.0%
Revenue +20.3%/yr
FY21 ¥672M
FY22 ¥837M
FY23 ¥1.0B
FY24 ¥1.2B
FY25 ¥1.4B
Net income +34.5%/yr
FY21 ¥75.4M
FY22 ¥110M
FY23 ¥141M
FY24 ¥199M
FY25 ¥247M

688543 screens 58% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688543

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −58% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 42.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.19× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 7.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 26.6× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 46
PAST 40 · sector 38
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 43 · sector 15

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $381.22 $116.71 -69%
RTX Corporation RTX $195.93 $88.37 -55%
Airbus SE 1AIR €213.25 €86.20 -60%
The Boeing Company BA $217.11 $48.20 -78%
China CSSC Holdings 600150 ¥34.31 ¥21.90 -36%
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 466,000 KRW 272,966 KRW -41%
Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 967,000 KRW 573,468 KRW -41%
ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS 337.50 TRY 130.70 TRY -61%
Saab AB SAABB kr 520.40 kr 212.84 -59%
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG kr 277.50 kr 106.93 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group (688543) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.20 versus a price of ¥38.37, about −58% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688543?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group is ¥16.20 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥38.37.
What is the quality score of 688543?
Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group (688543)?
Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 688543?
The net profit margin of Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group is about 16.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group pay a dividend?
Jiangxi Guoke Defence Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.17% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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