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ZJLD Group Inc (6979) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$24.3B

ZG ZJLD Group Inc 6979 · HK
PriceHK$8.23
Fair ValueHK$3.88
Upside-52.9%
Quality33/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.86% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$2.91 – HK$4.29 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +5.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.

Fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, review alerts and the diversification check: 14 days of Pro free, no card.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$4.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

HK$12.07 HK$5.49 Fair Value HK$3.88 Apr 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range HK$5.49 – HK$12.07 · fair‑value band HK$2.91 – HK$4.29 · the HK$8.23 price screens above the HK$3.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

ZJLD Group Inc (6979) currently trades at HK$8.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.88, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, ZJLD Group Inc generated revenue of HK$3.7B at a net margin of 14.8%. Revenue declined 60.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$4.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.91 (bear case) to HK$4.29 (bull case); at HK$8.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -53%, 6979 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$3.02 HK$3.03 HK$2.78 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.08 HK$3.34 HK$3.58 72
Gordon GGM HK$1.72 HK$1.88 HK$2.13 70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$2.73 HK$3.22 HK$4.14 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.08 HK$1.32 HK$1.49 54
EPV HK$3.08 HK$3.34 HK$3.58 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.72 HK$1.88 HK$2.13 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.72 HK$2.16 HK$2.77 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.50 HK$3.34 HK$4.17 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.29 HK$1.72 HK$2.15 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.03 HK$2.70 HK$3.38 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.31 HK$5.26 HK$6.20 53
EV/EBITDA HK$4.64 HK$5.70 HK$6.76 54
EV/Revenue HK$2.60 HK$3.09 HK$3.57 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.01 HK$2.69 HK$4.02 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.02 HK$3.03 HK$2.78 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.08 HK$3.34 HK$3.58 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.77 HK$2.52 HK$3.28 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.22) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.32). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$3.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) -60.7%
Net margin 14.8%
Return on equity 3.9%
Free cash flow −HK$456M FY2025
P/E ratio 37.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin -18.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1700
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -23.5%
Net cash HK$4.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 22
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ZJLD Group Inc engages in the production and sale of baijiu products in China. The company produces and sells sauce aroma, mixed aroma, and strong aroma baijiu products. The company sells its products under the Zhen Jiu, Li Du, Xiang Jiao, Kai Kou Xiao, Shao Yang, and other brands.

Full company description

ZJLD Group Inc engages in the production and sale of baijiu products in China. The company produces and sells sauce aroma, mixed aroma, and strong aroma baijiu products. The company sells its products under the Zhen Jiu, Li Du, Xiang Jiao, Kai Kou Xiao, Shao Yang, and other brands. It sells its products through distribution and store partners, retailers, and direct sales force. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. ZJLD Group Inc operates as a subsidiary of Jindong Investment GroupCo., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ZJLD Group Inc reported revenue of HK$3.7B in FY2025 versus HK$5.1B in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$538M in FY2025, compounding −15.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$3.7B
Latest YoY
−48.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.8%
Revenue −8.0%/yr
FY21 HK$5.1B
FY22 HK$5.9B
FY23 HK$7.0B
FY24 HK$7.1B
FY25 HK$3.7B
Net income −15.0%/yr
FY21 HK$1.0B
FY22 HK$1.0B
FY23 HK$2.3B
FY24 HK$1.3B
FY25 HK$538M

6979 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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ZJLD Group Inc · Fair Value
HK$3.88 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ZJLD Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6979

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -19% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -61% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.66× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 21.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.69× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 17
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 16 · sector 17
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 17 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,343 ¥1,238 -8%
Diageo plc DEO $93.96 $73.29 -22%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥75.28 ¥48.44 -36%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥122.32 ¥185.80 +52%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €67.96 €76.13 +12%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥91.09 ¥149.17 +64%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $28.40 $27.69 -3%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,515 ₹381.12 -75%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4700 SGD 0.7000 SGD +49%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥41.62 ¥27.82 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ZJLD Group Inc (6979) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.88 versus a price of HK$8.23, about −53% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6979?
Our model-based fair value for ZJLD Group Inc is HK$3.88 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$8.23.
What is the quality score of 6979?
ZJLD Group Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ZJLD Group Inc (6979)?
ZJLD Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6979?
The net profit margin of ZJLD Group Inc is about 14.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ZJLD Group Inc pay a dividend?
ZJLD Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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