China Youzan Ltd (8083) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Youzan Ltd HK$0.36, price HK$1.21, upside -70.3%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0530 – HK$2.48 · fair‑value band HK$0.3400 – HK$0.4600 · the HK$1.21 price screens above the HK$0.3600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Youzan Technology Limited, an investment holding company, provides online and offline e-commerce solutions in the People's Republic of China, Japan, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Third Party Payment Services, Merchant Services, and Others.
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Youzan Technology Limited, an investment holding company, provides online and offline e-commerce solutions in the People's Republic of China, Japan, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Third Party Payment Services, Merchant Services, and Others. The company offers third party payment and related consultancy services; and an e-commerce platform with various Software as a Service (Saas) products and services. In addition, it provides a suite of SaaS products, such as Youzan WeiMall, Youzan Store, Youzan Chain, Youzan Beauty, and other SaaS products; wholesale and retail internet information services; and factoring and guarantee services. Further, the company provides customized services for merchants and offers applications by third-party developers on Youzan App; and value-added services, including payment services, merchandise sourcing and distribution, consumer protection, and online traffic monetisation. The company was formerly known as China Youzan Limited and changed its name to Youzan Technology Limited in August 2024. Youzan Technology Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Youzan Ltd (8083) currently trades at HK$1.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3600, implying the stock looks roughly 236.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2600 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$1.21 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.3400 (bear) to HK$0.4600 (bull), the price of HK$1.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Youzan Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 177M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$5.2B (≈ $667M) · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.78 · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.5% · Operating margin 8.3% · Revenue (TTM) 1.5B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 1,629% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −70%, 8083 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$0.0300 to HK$0.3300). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$0.3400Fair Value HK$0.3600Bull HK$0.4600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−32.0% (2020) → 7.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.2× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)12· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)56· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is China Youzan Ltd (8083) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3600 versus a price of HK$1.21, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8083?
Our model-based fair value for China Youzan Ltd is HK$0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.21.
What is the quality score of 8083?
China Youzan Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3400, optimistic scenario HK$0.4600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Youzan Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3600, about −70% upside versus a price of HK$1.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3400, optimistic scenario HK$0.4600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
China Youzan Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Youzan Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +51.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8083 use?
Our models discount China Youzan Ltd at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Youzan Ltd that is +51.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Youzan Ltd (8083) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Youzan Ltd grew -5.7 % a year. The price currently implies +51.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Youzan Ltd (8083) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Youzan Ltd (+51.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.84 %: that much free cash flow China Youzan Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Youzan Ltd it is HK$0.3600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.21. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Youzan Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8083 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.21, fair value HK$0.3600, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8083?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3600). For China Youzan Ltd the two are HK$0.8500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Youzan Ltd worth?
The market values China Youzan Ltd at about HK$5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.21; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8083?
Our models span a range for China Youzan Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3400, base HK$0.3600, optimistic HK$0.4600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8083?
China Youzan Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3600 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Youzan Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8083 from its 52-week high?
China Youzan Ltd trades at HK$1.21, about 28% below its 52-week high of HK$1.67 and 1,629% above the low of HK$0.0700 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Youzan Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Youzan Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.21, calculated fair value HK$0.3600 (−70%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8083 calculated?
We run China Youzan Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Youzan Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$1.21. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3600, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Youzan Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of China Youzan Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The market capitalisation of China Youzan Ltd is HK$5.2B (≈ $667M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Youzan Ltd is 1.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The net margin of China Youzan Ltd is 11.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Youzan Ltd is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Youzan Ltd is −6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
The operating margin of China Youzan Ltd is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Youzan Ltd (8083)?
Revenue at China Youzan Ltd is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does China Youzan Ltd (8083) hold?
China Youzan Ltd holds more cash than debt, 3.9B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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