Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$50.5M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1105 – HK$33.77 · fair‑value band HK$0.0700 – HK$0.1100 · the HK$0.1350 price screens above the HK$0.0900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) currently trades at HK$0.1350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0900, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Winto Group (Holdings) Limited generated revenue of HK$27.1M at a net margin of -24.3%. Revenue grew 15.9% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$1.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0700 (bear case) to HK$0.1100 (bull case); at HK$0.1350, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -33%, 8238 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides exhibition and trade show, and publication and advertising services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area.
Full company description
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides exhibition and trade show, and publication and advertising services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. It operates through Exhibition and Trade Show Business and Related Services; Publications and Advertising Business; Online sales of Beauty and Cosmetics Products; and Sales of Luxury Products segments. The company is involved in the provision of print and online media advertising, advertising and related production services and outdoor advertising, magazine advertising services; and sales of publications and magazines, as well as luxury products. It also sells and distributes publications; and online sales of beauty and cosmetics products. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Wanchai, Hong Kong. Winto Group (Holdings) Limited operates as a subsidiary of Source Creation International Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of HK$27.1M in FY2025 versus HK$61.1M in FY2021, a compound −18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$6.6M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +8.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
8238 screens 33% overvalued. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 200 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $303.76 | $252.45 | -17% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €99.98 | €146.36 | +46% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $85.51 | $99.84 | +17% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.29 | ¥5.71 | +8% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $13.49 | $29.07 | +115% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.00 | €20.99 | -13% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥37.40 | ¥5.62 | -85% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.04 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
| Affle 3i Limited AFFLE | ₹1,643 | ₹611.48 | -63% |
| Guangdong Advertising Group 002400 | ¥7.33 | ¥1.14 | -84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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