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Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · HK · ISIN KYG9722S1176

WG Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Winto Group (Holdings) Limited

8238 · HK

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value HK$0.0900 · Overvalued (−31.8%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -24.3% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$33.77 HK$0.1060 Fair Value HK$0.0900 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1060 – HK$33.77 · fair‑value band HK$0.0700 – HK$0.1100 · the HK$0.1320 price screens above the HK$0.0900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Winto Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides exhibition and trade show, and publication and advertising services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area.

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Winto Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides exhibition and trade show, and publication and advertising services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. It operates through Exhibition and Trade Show Business and Related Services; Publications and Advertising Business; Online sales of Beauty and Cosmetics Products; and Sales of Luxury Products segments. The company is involved in the provision of print and online media advertising, advertising and related production services and outdoor advertising, magazine advertising services; and sales of publications and magazines, as well as luxury products. It also sells and distributes publications; and online sales of beauty and cosmetics products. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Wanchai, Hong Kong. Winto Group (Holdings) Limited operates as a subsidiary of Source Creation International Limited.

Stock analysis

Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) currently trades at HK$0.1320, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0900, 31.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0700 (bear) to HK$0.1100 (bull), the price of HK$0.1320 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Winto Group (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of HK$27.1M in FY2025 versus HK$61.1M in FY2021, a compound −18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$6.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$50.5M (≈ $6.4M) · P/S ratio 1.87 · Net margin −24.3% · Return on equity −1,377% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.7% · Operating margin −35.7% · Revenue (TTM) HK$27.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +15.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −32%, 8238 screens richer than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.9% (2020) → −19.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

8238 screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 190 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −31.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −10.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −24.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −35.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)80 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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JCDecaux SE DEC €24.96 €20.99 −16%
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WPP plc WPP $25.99 $39.72 +53%
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.31 ¥0.6000 −86%
Magnite, Inc MGNI $25.67 $28.24 +10%
Mobvista Inc 1860 HK$13.51 HK$12.22 −10%

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Winto Group (Holdings) Limited · Fair Value
HK$0.0900 −32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Winto Group (Holdings) Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8238

Frequently asked questions

Is Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0900 versus a price of HK$0.1320, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8238?
Our model-based fair value for Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is HK$0.0900 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1320.
What is the quality score of 8238?
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0900 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0700, optimistic scenario HK$0.1100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Winto Group (Holdings) Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0900, about −32% upside versus a price of HK$0.1320 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0700, optimistic scenario HK$0.1100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$27.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Winto Group (Holdings) Limited it is HK$0.0900 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1320. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Winto Group (Holdings) Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 8238 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1320, fair value HK$0.0900, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8238?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1320); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0900). For Winto Group (Holdings) Limited the two are HK$0.0420 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Winto Group (Holdings) Limited worth?
The market values Winto Group (Holdings) Limited at about HK$50.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1320; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8238?
Our models span a range for Winto Group (Holdings) Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.0700, base HK$0.0900, optimistic HK$0.1100 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.1320). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
Balance-sheet figures for Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8238 from its 52-week high?
Winto Group (Holdings) Limited trades at HK$0.1320, about 70% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4366 and 25% above the low of HK$0.1060 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Winto Group (Holdings) Limited?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Winto Group (Holdings) Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.1320, calculated fair value HK$0.0900 (−32%), Quality Score 55/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8238 calculated?
We run Winto Group (Holdings) Limited through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Winto Group (Holdings) Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1320. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0900, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Winto Group (Holdings) Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) come from?
Earnings per share at Winto Group (Holdings) Limited grew −1.6 % a year from 2012 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −7.6 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
The market capitalisation of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is HK$50.5M (≈ $6.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is 1.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
The net margin of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is −24.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is −1,377% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is −11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
The operating margin of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is −35.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238)?
Revenue at Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) generate?
The free cash flow of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is −HK$10.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Winto Group (Holdings) Limited (8238) carry?
The net debt of Winto Group (Holdings) Limited is HK$1.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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