Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd HK$0.05, price HK$0.06, upside -9.5%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0410 – HK$0.4250 · the HK$0.0600 price screens above the HK$0.0543 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Asia Grocery Distribution Limited, an investment holding company, trades in and distributes food and beverage grocery products under Hung Fat Ho brand name in Hong Kong.
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Asia Grocery Distribution Limited, an investment holding company, trades in and distributes food and beverage grocery products under Hung Fat Ho brand name in Hong Kong. It offers commodities and cereal products, such as rice, wheat flour, noodle products, ramen and pasta, edible oil, sugar, and salt; and packaged food products, including meat and vegetables in preserved, canned, frozen, and other forms, as well as snacks and pre-packaged food items. The company also provides kitchen and hygiene products, including food wrap and food related products, such as cling film, baking sheet, and foil; cleaning products, comprising of detergent, bleach, and liquid soap; other products, consisting of tissue paper, toothpick, and towel; and hygiene products, such as face masks and gloves. In addition, it offers sauces and condiments; dairy products and eggs; and beverages and wines. Further, the company offers product sourcing, repackaging, quality assurance, warehousing and storage, transportation, and other value-added services. It serves restaurants, non-commercial dining establishments, hotels and private clubs, food processing operators, and wholesalers. Asia Grocery Distribution Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) currently trades at HK$0.0600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0543, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2400 per share, and 12 of the 20 models we run sit above the HK$0.0600 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0100, and 8 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd reported revenue of HK$282M in FY2026 versus HK$241M in FY2022, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.8M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$69.7M (≈ $8.9M) · P/S ratio 0.25 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin −1.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$282M · Revenue growth (YoY) −6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −10%, 8413 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0543Fair Value HK$0.0543Bull HK$0.0543
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → −1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8413
Frequently asked questions
Is Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0543 versus a price of HK$0.0600, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 8413?
Our model-based fair value for Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is HK$0.0543 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0600.
What is the quality score of 8413?
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0543 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 20 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0543, about −10% upside versus a price of HK$0.0600 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$282M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8413 use?
Our models discount Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.95 %: that much free cash flow Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd it is HK$0.0543 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0600. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8413 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0600, fair value HK$0.0543, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8413?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0543). For Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd the two are HK$0.0057 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd worth?
The market values Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd at about HK$69.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0600; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0543 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
Balance-sheet figures for Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8413 from its 52-week high?
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd trades at HK$0.0600, about 71% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2080 and 46% above the low of HK$0.0410 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0543 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0600, calculated fair value HK$0.0543 (−10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8413 calculated?
We run Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0543, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0600. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0543, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0543). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) come from?
Earnings per share at Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd grew −23.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin −21.3 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The market capitalisation of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is HK$69.7M (≈ $8.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The net margin of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is 0.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
The operating margin of Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
Revenue at Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd is growing −6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413)?
Earnings per share at Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd are growing +88.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) hold?
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$60.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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