Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$51.1M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.0406 to HK$0.0408 (+0.6%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +15.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0461). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0410 – HK$0.4250 · fair‑value band HK$0.0355 – HK$0.0461 · the HK$0.0530 price screens above the HK$0.0408 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd (8413) currently trades at HK$0.0530, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0408, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd generated revenue of HK$282M at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue declined 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$60.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0355 (bear case) to HK$0.0461 (bull case); at HK$0.0530, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -29% fair-value upside, at -23%, 8413 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$0.1900) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Asia Grocery Distribution Limited, an investment holding company, trades in and distributes food and beverage grocery products under Hung Fat Ho brand name in Hong Kong.
Full company description
Asia Grocery Distribution Limited, an investment holding company, trades in and distributes food and beverage grocery products under Hung Fat Ho brand name in Hong Kong. It offers commodities and cereal products, such as rice, wheat flour, noodle products, ramen and pasta, edible oil, sugar, and salt; and packaged food products, including meat and vegetables in preserved, canned, frozen, and other forms, as well as snacks and pre-packaged food items. The company also provides kitchen and hygiene products, including food wrap and food related products, such as cling film, baking sheet, and foil; cleaning products, comprising of detergent, bleach, and liquid soap; other products, consisting of tissue paper, toothpick, and towel; and hygiene products, such as face masks and gloves. In addition, it offers sauces and condiments; dairy products and eggs; and beverages and wines. Further, the company offers product sourcing, repackaging, quality assurance, warehousing and storage, transportation, and other value-added services. It serves restaurants, non-commercial dining establishments, hotels and private clubs, food processing operators, and wholesalers. Asia Grocery Distribution Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Asia Grocery Distribution Ltd reported revenue of HK$282M in FY2026 versus HK$241M in FY2022, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.8M in FY2026.
of which total revenue +6.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
8413 screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $84.69 | $59.83 | -29% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $110.94 | $53.53 | -52% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $113.96 | $37.94 | -67% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.80 THB | 17.42 THB | +18% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $111.07 | $37.27 | -66% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.34 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +58% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $47.27 | $6.00 | -87% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $65.61 | $47.78 | -27% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.47 | ¥6.75 | -79% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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