Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
A solid business, trading 15% below our fair value of €21.59.
As of Sep 9, 2026, the fair value of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is €21.59 per share against a price of €18.42, so the fair value sits 17% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.53% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: HighRange €16.19 to €26.98
Fair value as of: Sep 9, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
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What matters now
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €13.11 – €24.45 · fair‑value band €16.19 – €26.98 · the €18.42 price screens below the €21.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 9, 2026.
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) currently trades at €18.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.59, implying the stock looks roughly 14.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €35.46 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the €18.42 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.51, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA generated revenue of €36.5B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at €78.1M. Fundamentals as of Sep 9, 2026
Scenario range: €16.19 (bear) to €26.98 (bull), the price of €18.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 17%, JMT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2624 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio17.9
P/S ratio0.32P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€1.03price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9
Dividend yield3.5%payout 63.1%
Net margin1.8%FY2025
Return on equity18.6%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)7.9%avg 5y
Operating margin3.1%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)€36.5BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+6.3%3y avg +12.3%
EPS growth (YoY)−6.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€1.4BFY2025
Net debt€78.1MFY2018 · ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality56/100
Of which business quality 56
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Profitability61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance82
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments.
Full company description
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments. It engages in the operation of chain of food stores under the Biedronka brand; online sales offerings, such as deliveries under the Biek brand, alternative ordering and delivery solutions with e-commerce players, and non-food products through a website; supermarket chains under the Pingo Doce brand; cash and carry stores under the Recheio brand; Bem-Estar parapharmacies and petrol stations; and coffee shops and kiosks under the Jeronymo brand. The company is also involved in the provision of specialized retail of health and beauty products, as well as in-store consultation services under the Hebe brand; operation of a chain of proximity food stores under the Ara brand; and production of dairy, livestock farming, aquaculture, and fruit and vegetables. In addition, it engages in the real estate purchase and sale; sea passenger water transport; renting of air transport equipment; growing of crops and animal farming; saline brackish waters aquaculture; and retail management, consultancy, and logistics. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal. Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sociedade Francisco Manuel Dos Santos B.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA reported revenue of €36.0B in FY2025 versus €20.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was €646M in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€36.0B
Latest YoY
+7.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−11.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+10.6%
Dividend yield3.5%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3.5% (2020) → 3.4% (2025) · steady
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+18% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.9× · Pricier than median
P/B3.92× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.35× · Pricier than median
P/FCF9.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.89× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-6.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+13.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price11.82 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.2 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE56· sector 15
FUTURE32· sector 12
PAST74· sector 32
HEALTH92· sector 94
DIVIDEND71· sector 56
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 9, 2026).
Is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €21.59 versus a price of €18.42, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JMT?
Our model-based fair value for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is €21.59 (as of Sep 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €18.42.
What is the quality score of JMT?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €21.59 (as of Sep 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €16.19, optimistic scenario €26.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €21.59, about +17% upside versus a price of €18.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €16.19, optimistic scenario €26.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €36.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of JMT?
The net profit margin of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is about 1.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA pay a dividend?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA would have to grow free cash flow by -6.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Sep 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JMT use?
Our models discount Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA it is €21.59 per share (as of Sep 9, 2026), against a price of €18.42. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 9, 2026, JMT trades below its calculated fair value: price €18.42, fair value €21.59, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€18.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€21.59). For Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA the two are €3.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA worth?
The market values Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA at about €11.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 9, 2026). Per share that is €18.42; our models calculate a fair value of €21.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JMT?
Our models span a range for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA: cautious scenario €16.19, base €21.59, optimistic €26.98 per share (as of Sep 9, 2026, price €18.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JMT?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €21.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 3.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of JMT?
The PEG ratio of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (as of Sep 9, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JMT from its 52-week high?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA trades at €18.42, about 18% below its 52-week high of €22.45 and 6% above the low of €17.44 (as of Sep 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €21.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 9, 2026: price €18.42, calculated fair value €21.59 (+17%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JMT calculated?
We run Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €21.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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