Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock €21.69, price €19.33, upside +12.2%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €14.03 – €24.45 · fair‑value band €16.27 – €27.11 · the €19.33 price screens below the €21.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments.
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It engages in the operation of chain of food stores under the Biedronka brand; online sales offerings, such as deliveries under the Biek brand, alternative ordering and delivery solutions with e-commerce players, and non-food products through a website; supermarket chains under the Pingo Doce brand; cash and carry stores under the Recheio brand; Bem-Estar parapharmacies and petrol stations; and coffee shops and kiosks under the Jeronymo brand.
The company is also involved in the provision of specialized retail of health and beauty products, as well as in-store consultation services under the Hebe brand; operation of a chain of proximity food stores under the Ara brand; and production of dairy, livestock farming, aquaculture, and fruit and vegetables.
In addition, it engages in the real estate purchase and sale; sea passenger water transport; renting of air transport equipment; growing of crops and animal farming; saline brackish waters aquaculture; and retail management, consultancy, and logistics.
The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal. Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sociedade Francisco Manuel Dos Santos B.V.
Stock analysis
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) currently trades at €19.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.69, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €40.94 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the €19.33 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.64, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €16.27 (bear) to €27.11 (bull), the price of €19.33 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA reported revenue of €36.0B in FY2025 versus €20.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was €646M in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €12.1B Large · P/E ratio 19.1 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) €1.01 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 12%, JMT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€16.27Fair Value €21.69Bull€27.11
Price €19.33 · Upside +12.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3058 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.8% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (41 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The discount model's tight cost control and scale provide resilience, while commoditized operations and thin margins constrain competitive advantage.
Main risk: Lidl, Dino and Aldi could step up store expansion and price cuts in Poland, eroding Biedronka’s margins and share in the discount segment.
Bull case: Biedronka could use its new R&D lab and own-brand innovations to differentiate products enough to ease price pressure from rivals while keeping tight cost control.
Bear case: Persistent price wars with Lidl, Dino and Aldi combined with repeated regulatory fines could steadily compress margins and limit Biedronka’s ability to invest in growth.
Biedronka recently opened an R&D lab with Warsaw University of Life Sciences to create functional and healthier own-brand foods, with first items like protein jellies already developed. This innovation push comes as the group maintains its core discount model built on tight cost control and scale. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will deeper product development lift margins through better differentiation or simply raise expenses the price-focused business struggles to pass on?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+12.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.1× · Pricier than median
P/B3.69× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.33× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.9× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JMT
Frequently asked questions
Is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €21.69 versus a price of €19.33, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JMT?
Our model-based fair value for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is €21.69 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €19.33.
What is the quality score of JMT?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €21.69 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €16.27, optimistic scenario €27.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €21.69, about +12% upside versus a price of €19.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €16.27, optimistic scenario €27.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €37.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA pay a dividend?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA would have to grow free cash flow by -7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JMT use?
Our models discount Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA that is -7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies -7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (-7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.26 %: that much free cash flow Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA it is €21.69 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €19.33. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, JMT trades below its calculated fair value: price €19.33, fair value €21.69, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€19.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€21.69). For Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA the two are €2.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA worth?
The market values Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA at about €12.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €19.33; our models calculate a fair value of €21.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JMT?
Our models span a range for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA: cautious scenario €16.27, base €21.69, optimistic €27.11 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €19.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JMT?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €21.69 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 21.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 3.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of JMT?
The PEG ratio of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 1.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JMT from its 52-week high?
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA trades at €19.33, about 11% below its 52-week high of €21.70 and 15% above the low of €16.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €21.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €19.33, calculated fair value €21.69 (+12%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JMT calculated?
We run Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €21.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €19.33. Our model-based fair value is €21.69, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The market capitalisation of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is €12.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Earnings per share at Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA are €1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The dividend yield of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 3.4% (payout 64.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The net margin of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 1.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
The operating margin of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Revenue at Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT)?
Earnings per share at Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA are growing −29.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JMT) carry?
The net debt of Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA is €78.1M (fiscal year 2018, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026