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Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (JMT) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · PT · Market cap €11.1B

JM Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT · LS
Price€17.68
Fair Value€21.59
Upside+22.1%
Quality51/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.68% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range €16.19 – €27.31 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €25.30 to €21.59 (−14.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 22% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • Our model range runs from €16.19 (bear) to €27.31 (bull), base €21.59. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 51/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€24.45 €11.82 Fair Value €21.59 Apr 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €11.82 – €24.45 · fair‑value band €16.19 – €27.31 · the €17.68 price screens below the €21.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (JMT) currently trades at €17.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.59, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A generated revenue of €36.5B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at €78.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €16.19 (bear case) to €27.31 (bull case); at €17.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at 22%, JMT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €29.21 €46.35 €74.00 80
Residual Income €6.55 €8.17 €23.16 76
Rev-Margin DCF €23.07 €35.44 €50.58 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €29.07 €46.84 €75.78 38
Owner Earnings €16.85 €26.36 €41.84 31
5Y Revenue Exit €23.07 €35.46 €51.57 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €33.75 €56.43 €83.90 41
5Y P/E Exit €20.87 €31.15 €42.21 38
10Y Revenue Exit €24.35 €36.50 €53.60 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €31.87 €51.45 €79.42 37
10Y P/E Exit €23.50 €33.42 €46.13 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €6.99 €26.96 €36.54 54
Lynch FV €6.59 €9.42 €12.24 50
PEG = 1.0 €6.59 €9.42 €12.24 46
EPV €18.86 €21.54 €23.89 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €5.67 €11.79 €18.70 70
DDM Multi-Stage €5.67 €9.94 €12.37 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €15.42 €20.56 €25.70 63
P/S Multiple €13.11 €17.48 €21.84 58
P/B Multiple €11.78 €15.71 €19.64 55
EV/EBIT €29.18 €37.98 €46.78 53
EV/EBITDA €39.58 €51.85 €64.12 54
EV/Revenue €20.58 €28.21 €35.83 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.62 €3.51 €5.24 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €29.21 €46.35 €74.00 80
Rev-Margin DCF €23.07 €35.44 €50.58 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €6.55 €8.17 €23.16 76
ROIC Compounder €19.75 €23.66 €27.86 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €11.56 €16.51 €21.46 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€35.46) versus Asset-Based (€3.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €36.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.3%
Net margin 1.8%
Return on equity 18.6%
Free cash flow €1.4B FY2025
P/E ratio 17.2
More key figures
Operating margin 3.1%
EPS (TTM) €1.03
Dividend yield 3.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -6.0%
Net debt €78.1M FY2018

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments.

Full company description

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments. It engages in the operation of chain of food stores under the Biedronka brand; online sales offerings, such as deliveries under the Biek brand, alternative ordering and delivery solutions with e-commerce players, and non-food products through a website; supermarket chains under the Pingo Doce brand; cash and carry stores under the Recheio brand; Bem-Estar parapharmacies and petrol stations; and coffee shops and kiosks under the Jeronymo brand. The company is also involved in the provision of specialized retail of health and beauty products, as well as in-store consultation services under the Hebe brand; operation of a chain of proximity food stores under the Ara brand; and production of dairy, livestock farming, aquaculture, and fruit and vegetables. In addition, it engages in the real estate purchase and sale; sea passenger water transport; renting of air transport equipment; growing of crops and animal farming; saline brackish waters aquaculture; and retail management, consultancy, and logistics. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal. Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sociedade Francisco Manuel Dos Santos B.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of €36.0B in FY2025 versus €20.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was €646M in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€36.0B
Latest YoY
+7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+12.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
−11.6%
Revenue +14.6%/yr
FY21 €20.9B
FY22 €25.4B
FY23 €30.6B
FY24 €33.5B
FY25 €36.0B
Net income +8.7%/yr
FY21 €463M
FY22 €590M
FY23 €756M
FY24 €599M
FY25 €646M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JMT

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 78 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +22% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.16× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.89× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 9.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.89× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 63 · sector 7
FUTURE 32 · sector 13
PAST 74 · sector 35
HEALTH 92 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 74 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY $81.69 $60.58 -26%
US Foods Holding USFD $99.13 $55.10 -44%
Performance Food Group PFGC $113.17 $37.94 -66%
CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT 14.90 THB 17.04 THB +14%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF $95.79 $37.27 -61%
Olam Group VC2 1.22 SGD 2.12 SGD +74%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI $50.19 $6.00 -88%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE $79.24 $47.78 -40%
Metcash Limited MTS A$2.92 A$5.33 +83%
Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 ¥31.11 ¥6.75 -78%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (JMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €21.59 versus a price of €17.68, about +22% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JMT?
Our model-based fair value for Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is €21.59 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €17.68.
What is the quality score of JMT?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (JMT)?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €36.5B (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of JMT?
The net profit margin of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is about 1.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A pay a dividend?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.68% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 19, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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