Ubot Holding Ltd (8529) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Ubot Holding Ltd HK$0.29, price HK$0.28, upside +5.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range HK$0.1139 – HK$0.6495 · fair‑value band HK$0.1900 – HK$0.4000 · the HK$0.2750 price screens below the HK$0.2900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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UBoT Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of back-end semiconductor transport media, micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS), and sensor packaging products. The company operates through Back-end Semiconductor Transport Media; and MEMS and Sensor Packaging segments.
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UBoT Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of back-end semiconductor transport media, micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS), and sensor packaging products. The company operates through Back-end Semiconductor Transport Media; and MEMS and Sensor Packaging segments. The company offers tray and carrier tape that are primarily used for the protection of semiconductor devices, including power discrete semiconductor device, optoelectronic, integrated circuits (IC) and sensors, etc. It also provides promotion and marketing services; and technical and customer service support. The company serves fabless semiconductor enterprises, integrated device manufacturers, IC assembly, and packaging test providers. It operates in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, the United States, Europe, Korea, and Japan. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Ubot Holding Ltd (8529) currently trades at HK$0.2750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2900, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5200 per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$0.2750 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.0600, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1900 (bear) to HK$0.4000 (bull), the price of HK$0.2750 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ubot Holding Ltd reported revenue of HK$200M in FY2025 versus HK$203M in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$12.8M in FY2025, compounding −16.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$141M (≈ $18.0M) · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 0.95 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1% · Operating margin 11.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 5%, 8529 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1900Fair Value HK$0.2900Bull HK$0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 7%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+69.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +65.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 336 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+5.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ubot Holding Ltd (8529) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2900 versus a price of HK$0.2750, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 8529?
Our model-based fair value for Ubot Holding Ltd is HK$0.2900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2750.
What is the quality score of 8529?
Ubot Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1900, optimistic scenario HK$0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ubot Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2900, about +5% upside versus a price of HK$0.2750 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1900, optimistic scenario HK$0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
Ubot Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$224M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Ubot Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
Ubot Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ubot Holding Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +69.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -0.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8529 use?
Our models discount Ubot Holding Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ubot Holding Ltd that is +69.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ubot Holding Ltd (8529) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Ubot Holding Ltd grew -0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +69.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ubot Holding Ltd (+69.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.54 %: that much free cash flow Ubot Holding Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ubot Holding Ltd it is HK$0.2900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2750. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ubot Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8529 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2750, fair value HK$0.2900, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8529?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2900). For Ubot Holding Ltd the two are HK$0.0150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ubot Holding Ltd worth?
The market values Ubot Holding Ltd at about HK$141M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2750; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8529?
Our models span a range for Ubot Holding Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1900, base HK$0.2900, optimistic HK$0.4000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8529?
Ubot Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ubot Holding Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 22.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8529 from its 52-week high?
Ubot Holding Ltd trades at HK$0.2750, about 58% below its 52-week high of HK$0.6495 and 82% above the low of HK$0.1509 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ubot Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ubot Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2750, calculated fair value HK$0.2900 (+5%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8529 calculated?
We run Ubot Holding Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ubot Holding Ltd currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2750. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2900, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ubot Holding Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1900 to HK$0.4000) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ubot Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The market capitalisation of Ubot Holding Ltd is HK$141M (≈ $18.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ubot Holding Ltd is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The dividend yield of Ubot Holding Ltd is 6.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The net margin of Ubot Holding Ltd is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ubot Holding Ltd is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ubot Holding Ltd is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
The operating margin of Ubot Holding Ltd is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
Revenue at Ubot Holding Ltd is growing +27.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ubot Holding Ltd (8529)?
Earnings per share at Ubot Holding Ltd are growing +117% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ubot Holding Ltd (8529) carry?
The net debt of Ubot Holding Ltd is HK$81.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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