Watani Iron Steel Co (9513) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Watani Iron Steel Co stock SAR 0.78, price SAR 2.99, that is 73.9% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.50 SAR – 5.39 SAR · fair‑value band 0.6600 SAR – 0.9000 SAR · the 2.99 SAR price screens above the 0.7800 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Watani Iron Steel Company engages in the manufacture and sale of reinforcing steel and iron products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company offers sheets plates, strip coils, bar bars, wire corners, and clips of various shapes; iron products in the form of blocks of substrates and waste after being melted; and steel billets and rebars.
Watani Iron Steel Company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Watani Iron Steel Co (9513) currently trades at 2.99 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.7800 SAR, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 0.7800 SAR per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the 2.99 SAR price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 0.3900 SAR, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.6600 SAR (bear) to 0.9000 SAR (bull), the price of 2.99 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Watani Iron Steel Co reported revenue of 429M SAR in FY2025 versus 623M SAR in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −14.9M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 556M SAR (≈ $148M) Micro · P/E ratio 59.8 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) 0.0500 SAR · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 15.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −74%, 9513 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.0600 SAR to 0.7800 SAR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear0.6600 SARFair Value 0.7800 SARBull0.9000 SAR
Price 2.99 SAR · Downside -73.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0427 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF0.3400 SAR0.4000 SAR0.5100 SAR82
Growth DCF0.3400 SAR0.4100 SAR0.5000 SAR80
5Y EBITDA Exit0.3300 SAR0.4200 SAR0.5500 SAR76
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF0.3400 SAR0.4000 SAR0.5100 SAR82
5Y Revenue Exit0.2300 SAR0.2600 SAR0.2900 SAR74
5Y EBITDA Exit0.3300 SAR0.4200 SAR0.5500 SAR76
10Y Revenue Exit0.2800 SAR0.3000 SAR0.3200 SAR68
10Y EBITDA Exit0.3300 SAR0.3900 SAR0.4500 SAR70
Multiples
EV/EBITDAn/a0.0600 SAR0.1500 SAR62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)0.5800 SAR0.7800 SAR1.16 SAR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF0.3400 SAR0.4100 SAR0.5000 SAR80
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.6% (2020) → −2.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−73.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Return on assets−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)67.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)59.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.12× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Watani Iron Steel Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9513
Frequently asked questions
Is Watani Iron Steel Co (9513) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.7800 SAR versus a price of 2.99 SAR, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9513?
Our model-based fair value for Watani Iron Steel Co is 0.7800 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.99 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9513?
Watani Iron Steel Co has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.7800 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.6600 SAR, optimistic scenario 0.9000 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Watani Iron Steel Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.7800 SAR, about 74% lower versus a price of 2.99 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.6600 SAR, optimistic scenario 0.9000 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Watani Iron Steel Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 494M SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Watani Iron Steel Co would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9513 use?
Our models discount Watani Iron Steel Co at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Watani Iron Steel Co that is more than 80 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Watani Iron Steel Co (9513) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Watani Iron Steel Co grew -1.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of more than 80 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Watani Iron Steel Co (more than 80 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.17 %: that much free cash flow Watani Iron Steel Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Watani Iron Steel Co it is 0.7800 SAR per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 2.99 SAR. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Watani Iron Steel Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 9513 trades above its calculated fair value: price 2.99 SAR, fair value 0.7800 SAR, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9513?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.99 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.7800 SAR). For Watani Iron Steel Co the two are 2.21 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Watani Iron Steel Co worth?
The market values Watani Iron Steel Co at about 556M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 2.99 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.7800 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9513?
Our models span a range for Watani Iron Steel Co: cautious scenario 0.6600 SAR, base 0.7800 SAR, optimistic 0.9000 SAR per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 2.99 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9513?
Watani Iron Steel Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.7800 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Balance-sheet figures for Watani Iron Steel Co (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9513 from its 52-week high?
Watani Iron Steel Co trades at 2.99 SAR, about 15% below its 52-week high of 3.53 SAR and 99% above the low of 1.50 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.7800 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Watani Iron Steel Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Watani Iron Steel Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 2.99 SAR, calculated fair value 0.7800 SAR (−74%), Quality Score 42/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9513 calculated?
We run Watani Iron Steel Co through 8 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 0.7800 SAR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Watani Iron Steel Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 2.99 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 0.7800 SAR, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Watani Iron Steel Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.9000 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Watani Iron Steel Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The market capitalisation of Watani Iron Steel Co is 556M SAR (≈ $148M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Watani Iron Steel Co is 1.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Earnings per share at Watani Iron Steel Co are 0.0500 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The net margin of Watani Iron Steel Co is 2.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Watani Iron Steel Co is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Watani Iron Steel Co is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
The operating margin of Watani Iron Steel Co is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Revenue at Watani Iron Steel Co is growing +67.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Watani Iron Steel Co (9513)?
Earnings per share at Watani Iron Steel Co are growing −17.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Watani Iron Steel Co (9513) carry?
The net debt of Watani Iron Steel Co is 51.1M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 53.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026