Molan Steel Company (9553) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 25, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Molan Steel Company stock SAR 0.69, price SAR 0.71, upside -2.8%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range 0.6900 SAR – 8.18 SAR · fair‑value band 0.4200 SAR – 1.06 SAR · the 0.7100 SAR price screens above the 0.6900 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 24, 2026.
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Molan Steel Company produces and supplies steel products for construction and steel fabrication in the Middle East and Gulf region. The company offers hot rolled sheets and coils, cold rolled sheets and coils, galvanized sheets and coils, and pre painted coils.
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It also sells i beams, sheet, flat steel, pipes, tubes, and angle iron. Molan Steel Company was founded in 2015 and is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Molan Steel Company (9553) currently trades at 0.7100 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6900 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 0.7000 SAR per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 0.7100 SAR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.4100 SAR, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.4200 SAR (bear) to 1.06 SAR (bull), the price of 0.7100 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Molan Steel Company reported revenue of 60.9M SAR in FY2025 versus 48.2M SAR in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −21.8M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 18.9M SAR (≈ $5.0M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) −1.13 SAR · Net margin −81.6% · Return on equity −591% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.8% · Operating margin −68.4% · Revenue (TTM) 37.0M SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −3%, 9553 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.4200 SARFair Value 0.6900 SARBull1.06 SAR
Price 0.7100 SAR · Upside -2.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−29.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.6% (2020) → −17.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−2.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−47.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−81.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−68.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−72.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Molan Steel Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9553
Frequently asked questions
Is Molan Steel Company (9553) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.6900 SAR versus a price of 0.7100 SAR, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 9553?
Our model-based fair value for Molan Steel Company is 0.6900 SAR (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.7100 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9553?
Molan Steel Company has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Molan Steel Company (9553)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.6900 SAR (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.4200 SAR, optimistic scenario 1.06 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Molan Steel Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.6900 SAR, about −3% upside versus a price of 0.7100 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 0.4200 SAR, optimistic scenario 1.06 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
Molan Steel Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 37.0M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Molan Steel Company (9553)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Molan Steel Company would have to grow free cash flow by +5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9553 use?
Our models discount Molan Steel Company at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Molan Steel Company that is +5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Molan Steel Company (9553) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Molan Steel Company grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Molan Steel Company (9553) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Molan Steel Company (+5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.14 %: that much free cash flow Molan Steel Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Molan Steel Company it is 0.6900 SAR per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of 0.7100 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Molan Steel Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 9553 trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.7100 SAR, fair value 0.6900 SAR, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9553?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.7100 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.6900 SAR). For Molan Steel Company the two are 0.0200 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Molan Steel Company worth?
The market values Molan Steel Company at about 18.9M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is 0.7100 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.6900 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9553?
Our models span a range for Molan Steel Company: cautious scenario 0.4200 SAR, base 0.6900 SAR, optimistic 1.06 SAR per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price 0.7100 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
Balance-sheet figures for Molan Steel Company (as of Oct 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9553 from its 52-week high?
Molan Steel Company trades at 0.7100 SAR, about 65% below its 52-week high of 2.00 SAR and 3% above the low of 0.6900 SAR (as of Oct 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.6900 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Molan Steel Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Molan Steel Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price 0.7100 SAR, calculated fair value 0.6900 SAR (−3%), Quality Score 36/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9553 calculated?
We run Molan Steel Company through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.6900 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Molan Steel Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The closing price on Oct 25, 2026 was 0.7100 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 0.6900 SAR, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Molan Steel Company right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (0.4200 SAR to 1.06 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Molan Steel Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The market capitalisation of Molan Steel Company is 18.9M SAR (≈ $5.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Molan Steel Company is 0.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
Earnings per share at Molan Steel Company are −1.13 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The net margin of Molan Steel Company is −81.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Molan Steel Company is −591% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Molan Steel Company is −4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Molan Steel Company (9553)?
The operating margin of Molan Steel Company is −68.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Molan Steel Company (9553)?
Revenue at Molan Steel Company is growing −72.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Molan Steel Company (9553) carry?
The net debt of Molan Steel Company is 16.4M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 24, 2026