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Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Arabica Star Company establishes and is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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AS
Some data
Sep 13, 2026
Arabica Star Company establishes and
9617 · SRStructural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 2.90 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 18/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −3.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.2% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range 22.00 SAR – 41.16 SAR · fair‑value band 2.28 SAR – 3.94 SAR · the 22.30 SAR price screens above the 2.90 SAR fair value. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Arabica Star Company establishes and operates coffee shops under the Arabica Star brand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company also engages in restaurants with service, mobile food trucks, food service, ice cream shops, fresh juices, cold drinks, and food products. In addition, the company offers beverages and healthy snacks.
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Arabica Star Company establishes and operates coffee shops under the Arabica Star brand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company also engages in restaurants with service, mobile food trucks, food service, ice cream shops, fresh juices, cold drinks, and food products. In addition, the company offers beverages and healthy snacks. Arabica Star Company was founded in 2004 and is based in Buraydah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617) currently trades at 22.30 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.90 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 669.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 17.55 SAR per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the 22.30 SAR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 2.73 SAR, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 2.28 SAR (bear) to 3.94 SAR (bull), the price of 22.30 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Arabica Star Company establishes and reported revenue of 50.1M SAR in FY2025 versus 55.0M SAR in FY2022, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −3.1M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 33.7M SAR (≈ $9.0M) · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) −2.26 SAR · Net margin −6.2% · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin −3.7% · Revenue (TTM) 50.1M SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −87%, 9617 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (2.71 SAR to 96.24 SAR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 2.28 SAR
Fair Value 2.90 SAR
Bull 3.94 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
2.30 SAR
2.71 SAR
3.38 SAR
77
Growth DCF
2.34 SAR
2.73 SAR
3.31 SAR
74
5Y Revenue Exit
2.43 SAR
3.19 SAR
4.29 SAR
68
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
2.30 SAR
2.71 SAR
3.38 SAR
77
5Y Revenue Exit
2.43 SAR
3.19 SAR
4.29 SAR
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
33.71 SAR
57.23 SAR
88.34 SAR
68
10Y Revenue Exit
2.32 SAR
2.81 SAR
3.33 SAR
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
18.60 SAR
31.34 SAR
45.40 SAR
62
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
72.35 SAR
96.24 SAR
120.12 SAR
64
EV/Revenue
2.71 SAR
3.58 SAR
4.44 SAR
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
13.10 SAR
17.55 SAR
26.19 SAR
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
2.34 SAR
2.73 SAR
3.31 SAR
74
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
18/100
Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Profitability
15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
6
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
12/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.3% (2022) → −1.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
9617 screens 669% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 223 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Consumer Cyclical
- Valuation of the Saudi Arabia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $252.53 | $149.03 | −41% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $98.74 | $35.83 | −64% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $36.20 | $39.82 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $140.87 | $58.17 | −59% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$106.75 | C$100.88 | −5% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $209.89 | $173.68 | −17% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $42.32 | $49.95 | +18% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $181.22 | $128.38 | −29% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $43.90 | $12.80 | −71% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $311.60 | $227.31 | −27% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.90 SAR versus a price of 22.30 SAR, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9617?
Our model-based fair value for Arabica Star Company establishes and is 2.90 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 22.30 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9617?
Arabica Star Company establishes and has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.90 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.28 SAR, optimistic scenario 3.94 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arabica Star Company establishes and stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.90 SAR, about −87% upside versus a price of 22.30 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.28 SAR, optimistic scenario 3.94 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
Arabica Star Company establishes and reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 50.1M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arabica Star Company establishes and would have to grow free cash flow by +33.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -3.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9617 use?
Our models discount Arabica Star Company establishes and at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arabica Star Company establishes and that is +33.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Arabica Star Company establishes and grew -3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arabica Star Company establishes and (+33.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.99 %: that much free cash flow Arabica Star Company establishes and produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arabica Star Company establishes and it is 2.90 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 22.30 SAR. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arabica Star Company establishes and stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 9617 trades above its calculated fair value: price 22.30 SAR, fair value 2.90 SAR, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9617?
No. The price is what the market pays today (22.30 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.90 SAR). For Arabica Star Company establishes and the two are 19.40 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arabica Star Company establishes and worth?
The market values Arabica Star Company establishes and at about 33.7M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 22.30 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 2.90 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9617?
Our models span a range for Arabica Star Company establishes and: cautious scenario 2.28 SAR, base 2.90 SAR, optimistic 3.94 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 22.30 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arabica Star Company establishes and (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9617 from its 52-week high?
Arabica Star Company establishes and trades at 22.30 SAR, about 50% below its 52-week high of 44.90 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.90 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arabica Star Company establishes and?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arabica Star Company establishes and stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 22.30 SAR, calculated fair value 2.90 SAR (−87%), Quality Score 18/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9617 calculated?
We run Arabica Star Company establishes and through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.90 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Arabica Star Company establishes and itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Arabica Star Company establishes and right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.94 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Arabica Star Company establishes and
How large is the market capitalisation of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
The market capitalisation of Arabica Star Company establishes and is 33.7M SAR (≈ $9.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arabica Star Company establishes and is 0.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
Earnings per share at Arabica Star Company establishes and are −2.26 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
The net margin of Arabica Star Company establishes and is −6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arabica Star Company establishes and is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arabica Star Company establishes and is 7.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
The operating margin of Arabica Star Company establishes and is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617)?
Revenue at Arabica Star Company establishes and is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Arabica Star Company establishes and (9617) carry?
The net debt of Arabica Star Company establishes and is 14.8M SAR (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 48.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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