9863 (9863) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Market cap HK$49.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 3, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated today
Share price −20.2% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range HK$33.56 – HK$73.50 · fair‑value band HK$12.95 – HK$13.27 · the HK$34.90 price screens above the HK$13.12 fair value. As of Jul 3, 2026.
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9863 (9863) currently trades at HK$34.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.12 — implying the stock looks roughly 62.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, 9863 generated revenue of HK$64.7B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 73.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$9.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 3, 2026
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
9863 reported revenue of HK$64.7B in FY2025 versus HK$3.1B in FY2021, a compound +113.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$524M in FY2025.
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External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.