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XPeng Inc (9868) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$99.1B

XI XPeng Inc 9868 · HK
PriceHK$51.80
Fair ValueHK$42.81
Upside-17.4%
Quality46/100
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Evidence: Low Range HK$28.67 – HK$56.95

Fair value as of: Jul 3, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −24.0% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

HK$108.71 HK$45.67 Fair Value HK$42.81 Jun 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range HK$45.67 – HK$108.71 · fair‑value band HK$28.67 – HK$56.95 · the HK$51.80 price screens above the HK$42.81 fair value. As of Jul 3, 2026.

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Analysis

XPeng Inc (9868) currently trades at HK$51.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$42.81 — implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, XPeng Inc generated revenue of HK$73.9B at a net margin of -3.1%. Revenue declined 17.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.6%. Net debt stands at HK$6.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 3, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$73.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) -17.6%
Net margin -3.1%
Return on equity -7.6%
Free cash flow HK$4.9B FY2025
Operating margin -14.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-1.08
EPS growth (YoY) -10.2%
Net debt HK$6.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

About the company

XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China. The company offers P7 and P7i, a four-door sports sedan; G9, a smart EV and a mid- to large-sized sport utility vehicle (SUV); G7 for families and individual consumers seeking advanced technology and comfort; G6, a smart EV and a coupe SUV; X9, Smart EV and a large seven-seater multi-purpose vehicle (MPV); MONA M03, an all-electric hatchback coupe; Next P7, an all-new coupe sports sedan; and P7+, smart EV of XPeng series. It also provides XOS Tianji, smart in-car operating system; Powertrain; and SEPA 2.0, a smart electric platform architecture. In addition, the company offers various services, including services embedded in a sales contract, supercharging, maintenance, technical support, technical research and development, and second-hand vehicle sales services; and insurance technology support, and automotive loan referral and auto financing services. XPeng …

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

XPeng Inc reported revenue of HK$74.7B in FY2025 versus HK$21.0B in FY2021, a compound +37.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.1B in FY2025.

Revenue +37.4%/yr
FY21 HK$21.0B
FY22 HK$26.9B
FY23 HK$30.7B
FY24 HK$40.9B
FY25 HK$74.7B
Net income
FY21 −HK$4.9B
FY22 −HK$9.1B
FY23 −HK$10.4B
FY24 −HK$5.8B
FY25 −HK$1.1B

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Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.

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Frequently asked questions

Is XPeng Inc (9868) undervalued?
As of Jul 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$42.81 versus a price of HK$51.80 — about −17% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of 9868?
Our model-based fair value for XPeng Inc is HK$42.81 (as of Jul 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$51.80.
What is the quality score of 9868?
XPeng Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of XPeng Inc (9868)?
XPeng Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$73.9B (latest available figure, as of Jul 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9868?
The net profit margin of XPeng Inc is about -3.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.