Xpeng Inc (9868) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Xpeng Inc HK$83.54, price HK$36.36, upside +129.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$25.40 – HK$218.00 · fair‑value band HK$49.50 – HK$121.00 · the HK$36.36 price screens below the HK$83.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China.
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XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China. The company offers P7 and P7i, a four-door sports sedan; G9, a smart EV and a mid- to large-sized sport utility vehicle (SUV); G7 for families and individual consumers seeking advanced technology and comfort; G6, a smart EV and a coupe SUV; X9, Smart EV and a large seven-seater multi-purpose vehicle (MPV); MONA M03, an all-electric hatchback coupe; Next P7, an all-new coupe sports sedan; and P7+, smart EV of XPeng series. It also provides XOS Tianji, smart in-car operating system; Powertrain; and SEPA 2.0, a smart electric platform architecture. In addition, the company offers various services, including services embedded in a sales contract, supercharging, maintenance, technical support, technical research and development, and second-hand vehicle sales services; and insurance technology support, and automotive loan referral and auto financing services. XPeng Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xpeng Inc (9868) currently trades at HK$36.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$83.54, implying the stock looks roughly 56.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$95.26 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$36.36 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$12.49, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$49.50 (bear) to HK$121.00 (bull), the price of HK$36.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xpeng Inc reported revenue of 74.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 21.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +37.4%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$99.1B (≈ $12.6B) · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) HK$−1.08 · Net margin −1.5% · Return on equity −7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.5% · Operating margin −14.8% · Revenue (TTM) 73.9B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 130%, 9868 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$49.50Fair Value HK$83.54Bull HK$121.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+82.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+259.1%
’18
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−73.5% (2020) → −5.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.5% a year for the price and +20.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+161.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−14.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xpeng Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9868
Frequently asked questions
Is Xpeng Inc (9868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$83.54 versus a price of HK$36.36, about +130% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9868?
Our model-based fair value for Xpeng Inc is HK$83.54 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$36.36.
What is the quality score of 9868?
Xpeng Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$83.54 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$49.50, optimistic scenario HK$121.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xpeng Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$83.54, about +130% upside versus a price of HK$36.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$49.50, optimistic scenario HK$121.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Xpeng Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 73.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xpeng Inc (9868)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xpeng Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +66.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9868 use?
Our models discount Xpeng Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xpeng Inc that is -9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xpeng Inc (9868) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xpeng Inc grew +66.5 % a year. The price currently implies -9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xpeng Inc (9868) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xpeng Inc (-9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.30 %: that much free cash flow Xpeng Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xpeng Inc it is HK$83.54 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of HK$36.36. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xpeng Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 9868 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$36.36, fair value HK$83.54, a gap of about +130% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9868?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$36.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$83.54). For Xpeng Inc the two are HK$47.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xpeng Inc worth?
The market values Xpeng Inc at about HK$99.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$36.36; our models calculate a fair value of HK$83.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9868?
Our models span a range for Xpeng Inc: cautious scenario HK$49.50, base HK$83.54, optimistic HK$121.00 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price HK$36.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xpeng Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −7.6%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9868 from its 52-week high?
Xpeng Inc trades at HK$36.36, about 66% below its 52-week high of HK$108.50 and at the low of HK$36.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$83.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xpeng Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xpeng Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price HK$36.36, calculated fair value HK$83.54 (+130%), Quality Score 52/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9868 calculated?
We run Xpeng Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$83.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xpeng Inc currently trades 56 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$36.36. Our model-based fair value is HK$83.54, about +130% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xpeng Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$49.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$49.50 to HK$121.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Xpeng Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The market capitalisation of Xpeng Inc is HK$99.1B (≈ $12.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xpeng Inc is 1.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Earnings per share at Xpeng Inc are HK$−1.08. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The net margin of Xpeng Inc is −1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xpeng Inc is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xpeng Inc is −9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xpeng Inc (9868)?
The operating margin of Xpeng Inc is −14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Revenue at Xpeng Inc is growing −17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xpeng Inc (9868)?
Earnings per share at Xpeng Inc are growing −10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xpeng Inc (9868) carry?
The net debt of Xpeng Inc is 6.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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