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Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$2.4B

HI Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd 9869 · HK
PriceHK$1.51
Fair ValueHK$0.5300
Upside-64.9%
Quality70/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 6.3% net margin
generates free cash flow
9.31% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/13)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.4000 – HK$0.6600 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −21.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$15.62 HK$0.7543 Fair Value HK$0.5300 Sep 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range HK$0.7543 – HK$15.62 · fair‑value band HK$0.4000 – HK$0.6600 · the HK$1.51 price screens above the HK$0.5300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) currently trades at HK$1.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5300, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$541M at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue declined 20.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4000 (bear case) to HK$0.6600 (bull case); at HK$1.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -65%, 9869 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.5100 HK$0.5100 HK$0.4600 76
Growth DCF HK$1.07 HK$1.40 HK$1.93 72
Gordon GGM HK$1.93 HK$2.10 HK$2.36 70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.03 HK$1.37 HK$1.97 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.7700 HK$1.02 HK$1.45 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5900 HK$0.6900 HK$0.8400 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.8400 HK$1.13 HK$1.52 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.7100 HK$0.9000 HK$1.13 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7600 HK$0.8500 HK$0.9400 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9100 HK$1.12 HK$1.33 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.8300 HK$0.9700 HK$1.10 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2500 54
EPV HK$0.2800 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3300 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.93 HK$2.10 HK$2.36 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.93 HK$2.38 HK$3.00 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.4400 HK$0.5900 HK$0.7400 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3400 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5700 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3400 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5700 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.4000 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6000 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.8200 HK$1.06 HK$1.29 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.3100 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4800 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3500 HK$0.4600 HK$0.6900 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.07 HK$1.40 HK$1.93 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5900 HK$0.7100 HK$0.8800 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.5100 HK$0.5100 HK$0.4600 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.2800 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3300 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.3100 HK$0.4500 HK$0.5800 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$2.10) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.2200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$541M
Revenue growth (YoY) -20.2%
Net margin 6.3%
Return on equity 3.4%
Free cash flow HK$126M FY2025
P/E ratio 63.3 as of Jul 3, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin -5.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400
Dividend yield 9.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -27.4%
Net cash HK$1.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Helens International Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the bar operations and franchise business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It offers alcoholic drinks, such as spirituous drinks and beers, as well as snacks under the Helen's brand name, as well as third party brand alcoholic drinks and other products.

Full company description

Helens International Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the bar operations and franchise business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It offers alcoholic drinks, such as spirituous drinks and beers, as well as snacks under the Helen's brand name, as well as third party brand alcoholic drinks and other products. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China. Helens International Holdings Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of HHL International Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$539M in FY2025 versus HK$1.8B in FY2021, a compound −26.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$34.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$539M
Latest YoY
−28.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−29.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.7%
Revenue −26.4%/yr
FY21 HK$1.8B
FY22 HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$1.2B
FY24 HK$752M
FY25 HK$539M
Net income
FY21 −HK$230M
FY22 −HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$181M
FY24 −HK$78.0M
FY25 HK$34.0M

9869 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.5300 −65%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9869

Peer Group

Restaurants · 227 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 63.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.75× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.45× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 35.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 19
PAST 14 · sector 15
HEALTH 0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 71

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCDS C$24.01 C$10.84 -55%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $108.49 $35.83 -67%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $32.00 $17.92 -44%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $150.34 $58.17 -61%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$104.50 C$36.37 -65%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $218.90 $173.68 -21%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $47.90 $54.27 +13%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $214.28 $104.89 -51%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $51.02 $12.80 -75%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $353.72 $227.31 -36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5300 versus a price of HK$1.51, about −65% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9869?
Our model-based fair value for Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is HK$0.5300 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.51.
What is the quality score of 9869?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$541M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9869?
The net profit margin of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is about 6.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.31% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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