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Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd HK$0.56, price HK$0.89, upside -37.1%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN KYG4469K1040

HI Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd

9869 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$0.5600 · Strongly overvalued (−37.1%)
✓Quality 70/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.3% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!18.1% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 14 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$15.62 HK$0.7543 Fair Value HK$0.5600 Sep 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.7543 – HK$15.62 · fair‑value band HK$0.5600 – HK$0.6700 · the HK$0.8900 price screens above the HK$0.5600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Helens International Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the bar operations and franchise business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It offers alcoholic drinks, such as spirituous drinks and beers, as well as snacks under the Helen's brand name, as well as third party brand alcoholic drinks and other products.

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Helens International Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the bar operations and franchise business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It offers alcoholic drinks, such as spirituous drinks and beers, as well as snacks under the Helen's brand name, as well as third party brand alcoholic drinks and other products. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China. Helens International Holdings Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of HHL International Limited.

Stock analysis

Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) currently trades at HK$0.8900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5600, 37.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$2.15 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.8900 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2600, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.5600 (bear) to HK$0.6700 (bull), the price of HK$0.8900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd reported revenue of 539M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −26.4%/yr. Reported net income was 34.0M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.4B (≈ $306M) · P/E ratio 63.3 · P/S ratio 3.99 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400 · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin −5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −37%, 9869 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.5600 Fair Value HK$0.5600 Bull HK$0.6700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$1.12 HK$1.42 HK$1.93 80
Growth DCF HK$1.15 HK$1.44 HK$1.88 77
Residual Income HK$0.5700 HK$0.5700 HK$0.5800 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.12 HK$1.42 HK$1.93 80
Owner Earnings HK$0.8600 HK$1.08 HK$1.45 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6800 HK$0.8000 HK$0.9600 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9600 HK$1.28 HK$1.71 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.8200 HK$1.03 HK$1.28 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.8700 HK$0.9600 HK$1.06 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.03 HK$1.24 HK$1.45 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.9500 HK$1.09 HK$1.23 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 HK$0.2900 67
EPV HK$0.3000 HK$0.3300 HK$0.3500 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.99 HK$2.15 HK$2.38 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.99 HK$2.37 HK$2.86 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.5200 HK$0.6900 HK$0.8600 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.4000 HK$0.5300 HK$0.6700 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.4000 HK$0.5300 HK$0.6700 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.4700 HK$0.5800 HK$0.7000 63
EV/EBITDA HK$0.9600 HK$1.23 HK$1.51 64
EV/Revenue HK$0.3600 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5600 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.8100 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.15 HK$1.44 HK$1.88 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.6800 HK$0.8200 HK$1.01 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.5700 HK$0.5700 HK$0.5800 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.3000 HK$0.3300 HK$0.3500 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.3600 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6800 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 5%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−23.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −25.1% a year for the price.

9869 screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 214 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −37.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3.4% · Below median
Return on assets 1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −5.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −20.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 18.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 63.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.80× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 16.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 29.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)14 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 66

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $233.60 $162.81 −30%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $94.86 $35.83 −62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $31.33 $34.46 +10%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $138.28 $76.78 −44%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $71.48 $73.34 +3%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $199.75 $175.20 −12%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $40.80 $50.76 +24%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $158.45 $128.55 −19%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $301.81 $233.22 −23%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $37.89 $10.27 −73%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9869

Frequently asked questions

Is Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5600 versus a price of HK$0.8900, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9869?
Our model-based fair value for Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is HK$0.5600 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.8900.
What is the quality score of 9869?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5600 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5600, optimistic scenario HK$0.6700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.5600, about −37% upside versus a price of HK$0.8900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5600, optimistic scenario HK$0.6700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 541M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -23.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9869 use?
Our models discount Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd that is -23.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd grew -8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -23.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (-23.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.16 %: that much free cash flow Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd it is HK$0.5600 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.8900. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9869 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.8900, fair value HK$0.5600, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9869?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.8900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5600). For Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd the two are HK$0.3300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd worth?
The market values Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd at about HK$2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.8900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9869?
Our models span a range for Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5600, base HK$0.5600, optimistic HK$0.6700 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.8900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9869?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 63.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.5600 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 29.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Balance-sheet figures for Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9869 from its 52-week high?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd trades at HK$0.8900, about 56% below its 52-week high of HK$2.02 and 18% above the low of HK$0.7543 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.8900, calculated fair value HK$0.5600 (−37%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9869 calculated?
We run Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.8900. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5600, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The market capitalisation of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is HK$2.4B (≈ $306M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is 3.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Earnings per share at Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd are HK$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 63.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The net margin of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
The operating margin of Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is −5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Revenue at Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd is growing −20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −29.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869)?
Earnings per share at Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd are growing −27.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd (9869) hold?
Helens Intl Hldg Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.1M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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