9869 (9869) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · Market cap HK$2.4B

9 9869 9869 · HK

PriceHK$1.90

Fair ValueHK$0.5300

Upside-72.1%

Quality74/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$0.4000 – HK$0.6600

Fair value as of: Jul 3, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price +49.6% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.7543 – HK$1.90 · fair‑value band HK$0.4000 – HK$0.6600 · the HK$1.90 price screens above the HK$0.5300 fair value. As of Jul 3, 2026.

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Analysis

9869 (9869) currently trades at HK$1.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5300 — implying the stock looks roughly 72.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, 9869 generated revenue of HK$541M at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue declined 20.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 3, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$541M

Revenue growth (YoY) -20.2%

Net margin 6.3%

Return on equity 3.4%

Free cash flow HK$126M FY2025

P/E ratio 63.3

More key figures

Operating margin -5.0%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400

Dividend yield 9.3%

EPS growth (YoY) -27.4%

Net cash HK$1.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

9869 reported revenue of HK$539M in FY2025 versus HK$1.8B in FY2021, a compound −26.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$34.0M in FY2025.

Revenue −26.4%/yr

FY21 HK$1.8B

FY22 HK$1.6B

FY23 HK$1.2B

FY24 HK$752M

FY25 HK$539M

Net income

FY21 −HK$230M

FY22 −HK$1.6B

FY23 HK$181M

FY24 −HK$78.0M

FY25 HK$34.0M

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Similar stocks

6 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 3, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD	4,928 MXN	2,845 MXN	-42%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX	C$27.68	C$5.93	-79%
Compass Group CMPGF	$32.63	$24.90	-24%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMGS	C$12.49	C$6.55	-48%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM	$150.87	$71.29	-53%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR	$73.20	$42.90	-41%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 9869 (9869) undervalued?

As of Jul 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5300 versus a price of HK$1.90 — about −72% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 9869?

Our model-based fair value for 9869 is HK$0.5300 (as of Jul 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.90.

What is the quality score of 9869?

9869 has a Quality Score of 74/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 9869 (9869)?

9869 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$541M (latest available figure, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9869?

The net profit margin of 9869 is about 6.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 9869 pay a dividend?

9869 currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.31% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 3, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.