National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of National Petroleum Co Ltd TWD 39.25, price TWD 54.20, upside -27.6%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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National Petroleum Co., Ltd. engages in the gas stations business in Taiwan. The company sells gasoline, lubricant, and diesel fuel. It offers car wash services. National Petroleum Co., Ltd. was founded in 1977 and is based in Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) currently trades at 54.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 39.25 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 38.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 40.16 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 54.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.63 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 27.48 TWD (bear) to 50.03 TWD (bull), the price of 54.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
National Petroleum Co Ltd reported revenue of 22.5B TWD in FY2025 versus 21.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was 730M TWD in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.8B TWD (≈ $528M) · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) 2.35 TWD · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −28%, 9937 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 27.48 TWDFair Value 39.25 TWDBull 50.03 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1097 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.4% a year for the price.
Compare National Petroleum Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.76× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)81· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Petroleum Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9937
Frequently asked questions
Is National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 39.25 TWD versus a price of 54.20 TWD, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9937?
Our model-based fair value for National Petroleum Co Ltd is 39.25 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9937?
National Petroleum Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 39.25 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 27.48 TWD, optimistic scenario 50.03 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Petroleum Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 39.25 TWD, about −28% upside versus a price of 54.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 27.48 TWD, optimistic scenario 50.03 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
National Petroleum Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does National Petroleum Co Ltd pay a dividend?
National Petroleum Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Petroleum Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9937 use?
Our models discount National Petroleum Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Petroleum Co Ltd that is +12.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Petroleum Co Ltd grew +4.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Petroleum Co Ltd (+12.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.04 %: that much free cash flow National Petroleum Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Petroleum Co Ltd it is 39.25 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 54.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Petroleum Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9937 trades above its calculated fair value: price 54.20 TWD, fair value 39.25 TWD, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9937?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (39.25 TWD). For National Petroleum Co Ltd the two are 14.95 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Petroleum Co Ltd worth?
The market values National Petroleum Co Ltd at about 16.8B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 54.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 39.25 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9937?
Our models span a range for National Petroleum Co Ltd: cautious scenario 27.48 TWD, base 39.25 TWD, optimistic 50.03 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 54.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9937?
National Petroleum Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 39.25 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 16.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Petroleum Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9937 from its 52-week high?
National Petroleum Co Ltd trades at 54.20 TWD, about 14% below its 52-week high of 63.10 TWD and 2% above the low of 53.26 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 39.25 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Petroleum Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Petroleum Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 54.20 TWD, calculated fair value 39.25 TWD (−28%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9937 calculated?
We run National Petroleum Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 39.25 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. National Petroleum Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 54.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 39.25 TWD, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Petroleum Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (50.03 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (27.48 TWD to 50.03 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) come from?
Earnings per share at National Petroleum Co Ltd grew +4.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin +8.0 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Petroleum Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The market capitalisation of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 16.8B TWD (≈ $528M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 0.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
Earnings per share at National Petroleum Co Ltd are 2.35 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The dividend yield of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 4.1% (payout 93.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The net margin of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
The operating margin of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
Revenue at National Petroleum Co Ltd is growing −6.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937)?
Earnings per share at National Petroleum Co Ltd are growing +23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does National Petroleum Co Ltd (9937) carry?
The net debt of National Petroleum Co Ltd is 1.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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