National Petroleum Co (9937) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 17.3B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price −0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (50.20 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 41.19 TWD – 77.63 TWD · fair‑value band 30.12 TWD – 50.20 TWD · the 55.10 TWD price screens above the 40.16 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
National Petroleum Co (9937) currently trades at 55.10 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 40.16 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 27.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Petroleum Co generated revenue of 22.1B TWD at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at 1.8B TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 30.12 TWD (bear case) to 50.20 TWD (bull case); at 55.10 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -27%, 9937 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (42.58 TWD) versus Asset-Based (12.63 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Petroleum Co., Ltd. engages in the gas stations business in Taiwan. The company sells gasoline, lubricant, and diesel fuel. It offers car wash services. National Petroleum Co., Ltd. was founded in 1977 and is based in Taipei City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National Petroleum Co reported revenue of 22.5B TWD in FY2025 versus 21.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was 730M TWD in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
9937 screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare National Petroleum Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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