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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN KYG017191142

AG Some data Sep 22, 2026

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

9988 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$65.40 · Strongly overvalued (−43%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.90% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (7/11)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 15 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$212.42 HK$58.80 Fair Value HK$65.40 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$58.80 – HK$212.42 · fair‑value band HK$54.21 – HK$123.84 · the HK$114.80 price screens above the HK$65.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 22, 2026.

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Company profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

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Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) currently trades at HK$114.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$65.40, implying the stock looks roughly 75.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$237.16 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$114.80 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$15.24, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$54.21 (bear) to HK$123.84 (bull), the price of HK$114.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2026 versus 853B CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was 104B CNY in FY2026, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.1T (≈ $264B) · P/E ratio 17.1 · P/S ratio 1.73 · EPS (TTM) HK$3.36 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −43%, 9988 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$54.21 Fair Value HK$65.40 Bull HK$123.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.12 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$12.49 HK$15.24 HK$17.68 74
Residual Income HK$48.99 HK$54.65 HK$96.03 74
ROIC Compounder HK$12.49 HK$15.24 HK$17.68 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$17.56 HK$45.27 HK$106.04 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$36.74 HK$256.20 HK$359.53 63
Lynch FV HK$123.36 HK$176.23 HK$229.10 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$123.36 HK$176.23 HK$229.10 57
EPV HK$12.49 HK$15.24 HK$17.68 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$16.92 HK$36.94 HK$62.16 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$16.92 HK$30.26 HK$38.50 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$89.14 HK$118.85 HK$148.57 63
P/S Multiple HK$48.05 HK$64.06 HK$80.08 58
P/B Multiple HK$68.88 HK$91.84 HK$114.80 55
EV/EBIT HK$38.94 HK$52.94 HK$66.95 66
EV/EBITDA HK$47.05 HK$63.76 HK$80.47 67
EV/Revenue HK$25.25 HK$37.39 HK$49.52 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$27.57 HK$36.94 HK$55.14 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$48.99 HK$54.65 HK$96.03 74
ROIC Compounder HK$12.49 HK$15.24 HK$17.68 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$166.01 HK$237.16 HK$308.31 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+34.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45% vs 35%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
2026 sits 996% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

9988 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.96× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.03× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 19.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.47× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)59 · sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)15 · sector 53
PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)18 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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PDD Holdings PDD $78.08 $298.09 +282%
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DoorDash, Inc DASH $198.26 $203.66 +3%
Sea Limited SE $103.50 $129.32 +25%
JD.com, Inc 89618 ¥90.85 ¥70.41 −22%
eBay Inc EBAY $108.03 $118.83 +10%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $14.40 $4.06 −72%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €36.61 €12.71 −65%
Wayfair Inc W $103.24 $34.24 −67%

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HK$65.40 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alibaba Group Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9988

Frequently asked questions

Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$65.40 versus a price of HK$114.80, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9988?
Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is HK$65.40 (as of Sep 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$114.80.
What is the quality score of 9988?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$65.40 (as of Sep 22, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$54.21, optimistic scenario HK$123.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$65.40, about −43% upside versus a price of HK$114.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$54.21, optimistic scenario HK$123.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.0T (latest available figure, as of Sep 22, 2026).
Does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alibaba Group Holding Ltd it is HK$65.40 per share (as of Sep 22, 2026), against a price of HK$114.80. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 22, 2026, 9988 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$114.80, fair value HK$65.40, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9988?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$114.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$65.40). For Alibaba Group Holding Ltd the two are HK$49.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd worth?
The market values Alibaba Group Holding Ltd at about HK$2.1T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 22, 2026). Per share that is HK$114.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$65.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9988?
Our models span a range for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd: cautious scenario HK$54.21, base HK$65.40, optimistic HK$123.84 per share (as of Sep 22, 2026, price HK$114.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9988?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1 (as of Sep 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$65.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 19.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 9988?
The PEG ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 0.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (as of Sep 22, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9988 from its 52-week high?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd trades at HK$114.80, about 38% below its 52-week high of HK$186.20 and 13% above the low of HK$101.80 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$65.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 22, 2026: price HK$114.80, calculated fair value HK$65.40 (−43%), Quality Score 54/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9988 calculated?
We run Alibaba Group Holding Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$65.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$114.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$65.40, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$54.21 to HK$123.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) come from?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd grew +14.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +32.8 %, EBIT margin −10.9 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is HK$2.1T (≈ $264B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 1.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd are HK$3.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The dividend yield of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 0.9% (payout 30.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
The operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Revenue at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) generate?
The free cash flow of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is −HK$50.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) carry?
The net debt of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is HK$86.1B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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