Aoyama Trading Co (9B7) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aoyama Trading Co stock €3.69, price €4.32, upside -14.6%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.15 – €4.87 · fair‑value band €2.50 – €5.08 · the €4.32 price screens above the €3.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. engages in the business wear, credit card, printing and media, sundry sales, repair service, franchisee, real estate and other businesses in Japan. It offers suits, shoes, and casual clothing and other men's items; and ladies suits for job hunting, formal wear, and others.
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The company also issues and manages credit cards, as well as manages finance; provides direct mail and sales promotion services for the distribution and retailing industry.
In addition, it offers shoe repair and shoe polishing, sneaker repair, and suitcase repair under the Mister Minit brand; operates food service under Yakiniku King and Yuzu an brands; reuse business under 2nd STREET; and wellness business under Anytime Fitness brand.
Further, it engaged in the management and leasing of real estate; and operates in the web media business. Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1964 and is headquartered in Fukuyama, Japan.
Stock analysis
Aoyama Trading Co (9B7) currently trades at €4.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.69, 14.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €6.09 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the €4.32 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.03, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.50 (bear) to €5.08 (bull), the price of €4.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Aoyama Trading Co reported revenue of ¥189B in FY2026 versus ¥166B in FY2022, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.9B in FY2026, compounding +50.5%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €613M Small · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) €0.2700 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −15%, 9B7 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.50Fair Value €3.69Bull€5.08
Price €4.32 · Upside -14.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1553 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€1.85€2.24€2.9379
Growth DCF€1.89€2.26€2.8677
Owner Earnings€1.47€1.76€2.2875
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€1.85€2.24€2.9379
Owner Earnings€1.47€1.76€2.2875
5Y Revenue Exit€2.94€4.34€6.4469
5Y EBITDA Exit€4.09€6.29€9.2872
5Y P/E Exit€3.15€4.69€6.5868
10Y Revenue Exit€2.35€3.34€4.4665
10Y EBITDA Exit€3.04€4.44€6.0266
10Y P/E Exit€2.54€3.54€4.5462
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€1.88€2.83€3.3664
EPV€2.79€3.11€3.3671
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€2.26€2.53€2.8367
DDM Multi-Stage€2.26€2.75€3.3065
Multiples
P/E Multiple€4.57€6.09€7.6163
P/S Multiple€3.53€4.70€5.8858
P/B Multiple€20.21€26.95€33.6955
EV/EBIT€5.20€7.10€9.0166
EV/EBITDA€6.05€8.24€10.4367
EV/Revenue€3.33€4.98€6.6453
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€1.34€2.03€2.5355
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€1.89€2.26€2.8677
Rev-Margin DCF€2.94€4.39€6.1770
Economic Profit
Residual Income€4.90€4.80€4.8473
ROIC Compounder€2.79€3.11€3.3669
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€3.22€4.60€5.9865
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−14.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aoyama Trading Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9B7
Frequently asked questions
Is Aoyama Trading Co (9B7) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.69 versus a price of €4.32, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9B7?
Our model-based fair value for Aoyama Trading Co is €3.69 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.32.
What is the quality score of 9B7?
Aoyama Trading Co has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.69 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.50, optimistic scenario €5.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aoyama Trading Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.69, about −15% upside versus a price of €4.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.50, optimistic scenario €5.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Aoyama Trading Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥189B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Aoyama Trading Co pay a dividend?
Aoyama Trading Co currently shows a dividend yield of 4.96% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aoyama Trading Co would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9B7 use?
Our models discount Aoyama Trading Co at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aoyama Trading Co that is +18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aoyama Trading Co (9B7) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Aoyama Trading Co grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies +18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aoyama Trading Co (+18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.20 %: that much free cash flow Aoyama Trading Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aoyama Trading Co it is €3.69 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €4.32. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aoyama Trading Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9B7 trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.32, fair value €3.69, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9B7?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.69). For Aoyama Trading Co the two are €0.6301 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aoyama Trading Co worth?
The market values Aoyama Trading Co at about €613M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €4.32; our models calculate a fair value of €3.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9B7?
Our models span a range for Aoyama Trading Co: cautious scenario €2.50, base €3.69, optimistic €5.08 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €4.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9B7?
Aoyama Trading Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aoyama Trading Co (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9B7 from its 52-week high?
Aoyama Trading Co trades at €4.32, about 9% below its 52-week high of €4.74 and 26% above the low of €3.43 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aoyama Trading Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aoyama Trading Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €4.32, calculated fair value €3.69 (−15%), Quality Score 43/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9B7 calculated?
We run Aoyama Trading Co through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Aoyama Trading Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €4.32. Our model-based fair value is €3.69, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aoyama Trading Co right now?
A fairly wide model range (€2.50 to €5.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Aoyama Trading Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The market capitalisation of Aoyama Trading Co is €613M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aoyama Trading Co is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Earnings per share at Aoyama Trading Co are €0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The dividend yield of Aoyama Trading Co is 5.0% (payout 79.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The net margin of Aoyama Trading Co is 3.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aoyama Trading Co is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aoyama Trading Co is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
The operating margin of Aoyama Trading Co is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Revenue at Aoyama Trading Co is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aoyama Trading Co (9B7)?
Earnings per share at Aoyama Trading Co are growing −48.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aoyama Trading Co (9B7) carry?
The net debt of Aoyama Trading Co is ¥13.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026