Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Paper Industries Co stock €8.65, price €7.20, upside +20.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.98 – €9.42 · fair‑value band €8.15 – €12.50 · the €7.20 price screens below the €8.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of pulp and paper products in Japan, Oceania, Asia, North America, and internationally.
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It offers paper products, including printing and writing, business communication, wrapping, functional specialty, and converting papers; newsprints; household paper and professional products, which comprise facial and bath tissue, paper towels, pre-moistened and industrial-use wipes, and personal-care products; health care products; paper-based materials under the SHIELDPLUS brand; and paper straws.
The company also provides kitchen products; kraft and dissolving pulps; cellulose nanofiber; agriculture products, such as seedlings; plywood and laminated lumber products; and other products comprising Cu-TOP copper ion-loaded cellulose and wet non-woven fabric, as well as a shelf-life-extending agent under the Wasa Green brand.
In addition, it offers chemicals, including sulfite dissolving pulp, functional chemicals, lignin products, ribonucleic acid/yeast products, functional coating resin, and optical films for display devices. Further, the company is involved in the energy business and construction-related business.
The company was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI) currently trades at €7.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.65, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €16.39 per share, and 13 of the 19 models we run sit above the €7.20 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €6.12, and 6 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €8.15 (bear) to €12.50 (bull), the price of €7.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nippon Paper Industries Co reported revenue of ¥1.2T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.7B in FY2026, compounding +55.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €830M Small · P/E ratio 12.6 · EPS (TTM) €0.5700 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at 20%, 9NI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€8.15Fair Value €8.65Bull€12.50
Price €7.20 · Upside +20.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2789 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.8% vs 3.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 2%
Compare Nippon Paper Industries Co with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 120 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+20.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Paper Industries Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9NI
Frequently asked questions
Is Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.65 versus a price of €7.20, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9NI?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Paper Industries Co is €8.65 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.20.
What is the quality score of 9NI?
Nippon Paper Industries Co has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.65 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.15, optimistic scenario €12.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Paper Industries Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.65, about +20% upside versus a price of €7.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €8.15, optimistic scenario €12.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Nippon Paper Industries Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.2T (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Nippon Paper Industries Co pay a dividend?
Nippon Paper Industries Co currently shows a dividend yield of 1.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Paper Industries Co it is €8.65 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €7.20. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Paper Industries Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9NI trades below its calculated fair value: price €7.20, fair value €8.65, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9NI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.65). For Nippon Paper Industries Co the two are €1.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Paper Industries Co worth?
The market values Nippon Paper Industries Co at about €830M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €7.20; our models calculate a fair value of €8.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9NI?
Our models span a range for Nippon Paper Industries Co: cautious scenario €8.15, base €8.65, optimistic €12.50 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €7.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9NI?
Nippon Paper Industries Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Paper Industries Co (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9NI from its 52-week high?
Nippon Paper Industries Co trades at €7.20, about 13% below its 52-week high of €8.32 and 30% above the low of €5.53 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Paper Industries Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Empresas CMPC S.A, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Paper Industries Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €7.20, calculated fair value €8.65 (+20%), Quality Score 52/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9NI calculated?
We run Nippon Paper Industries Co through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €8.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Paper Industries Co currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €7.20. Our model-based fair value is €8.65, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Paper Industries Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€8.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Nippon Paper Industries Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Paper Industries Co is €830M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Paper Industries Co are €0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Paper Industries Co is 1.2% (payout 14.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
The net margin of Nippon Paper Industries Co is 0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Paper Industries Co is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Paper Industries Co is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
The operating margin of Nippon Paper Industries Co is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Revenue at Nippon Paper Industries Co is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Paper Industries Co are growing −10.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI) generate?
The free cash flow of Nippon Paper Industries Co is ¥75.0B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nippon Paper Industries Co (9NI) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Paper Industries Co is ¥651B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 8.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 27, 2026