Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. BRL 99.19, price BRL 209, upside -52.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$157.76 – R$435.43 · fair‑value band R$72.10 – R$99.19 · the R$209.16 price screens above the R$99.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional.
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Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo in the United States, and in parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34) currently trades at R$209.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$99.19, 52.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of R$129.31 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the R$209.16 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$70.02, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$72.10 (bear) to R$99.19 (bull), the price of R$209.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. reported revenue of $14.2B in FY2025 versus $9.6B in FY2022, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap R$28.2B (≈ $5.4B) · P/E ratio 82.7 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) R$2.53 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin −7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −53%, A1LK34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$72.10Fair Value R$99.19Bull R$99.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.91 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−4.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−7.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alaska Air Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A1LK34
Frequently asked questions
Is Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$99.19 versus a price of R$209.16, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of A1LK34?
Our model-based fair value for Alaska Air Group, Inc. is R$99.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$209.16.
What is the quality score of A1LK34?
Alaska Air Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$99.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$72.10, optimistic scenario R$99.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alaska Air Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$99.19, about −53% upside versus a price of R$209.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$72.10, optimistic scenario R$99.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Alaska Air Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alaska Air Group, Inc. it is R$99.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$209.16. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alaska Air Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, A1LK34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$209.16, fair value R$99.19, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A1LK34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$209.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$99.19). For Alaska Air Group, Inc. the two are R$109.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alaska Air Group, Inc. worth?
The market values Alaska Air Group, Inc. at about R$28.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$209.16; our models calculate a fair value of R$99.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A1LK34?
Our models span a range for Alaska Air Group, Inc.: cautious scenario R$72.10, base R$99.19, optimistic R$99.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$209.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of A1LK34?
Alaska Air Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 82.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$99.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alaska Air Group, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is A1LK34 from its 52-week high?
Alaska Air Group, Inc. trades at R$209.16, about 32% below its 52-week high of R$308.76 and 17% above the low of R$178.79 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$99.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alaska Air Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alaska Air Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$209.16, calculated fair value R$99.19 (−53%), Quality Score 50/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A1LK34 calculated?
We run Alaska Air Group, Inc. through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$99.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alaska Air Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$209.16. Our model-based fair value is R$99.19, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alaska Air Group, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$99.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Alaska Air Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
The market capitalisation of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is R$28.2B (≈ $5.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Earnings per share at Alaska Air Group, Inc. are R$2.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 82.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
The net margin of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is 1.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
The operating margin of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Revenue at Alaska Air Group, Inc. is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34)?
Earnings per share at Alaska Air Group, Inc. are growing −68.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34) generate?
The free cash flow of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is −$339M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alaska Air Group, Inc. (A1LK34) carry?
The net debt of Alaska Air Group, Inc. is $4.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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