Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk IDR 16,058, price IDR 7,850, upside +104.6%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,786 IDR – 10,712 IDR · fair‑value band 12,043 IDR – 20,072 IDR · the 7,850 IDR price screens below the 16,058 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk engages in the crude palm oil and related derivatives business in Indonesia. It also offers palm kernel and its derivatives. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Astra International Tbk.
Stock analysis
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) currently trades at 7,850 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,058 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 27,250 IDR per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the 7,850 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 7,432 IDR, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12,043 IDR (bear) to 20,072 IDR (bull), the price of 7,850 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk reported revenue of 28.7T IDR in FY2025 versus 24.3T IDR in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5T IDR in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 15.1T IDR (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) 814.69 IDR · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 105%, AALI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12,043 IDRFair Value 16,058 IDRBull 20,072 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (260.95 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs −4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.9% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 290 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+105% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,058 IDR versus a price of 7,850 IDR, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AALI?
Our model-based fair value for Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 16,058 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7,850 IDR.
What is the quality score of AALI?
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16,058 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12,043 IDR, optimistic scenario 20,072 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Astra Agro Lestari Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16,058 IDR, about +105% upside versus a price of 7,850 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12,043 IDR, optimistic scenario 20,072 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Astra Agro Lestari Tbk pay a dividend?
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Astra Agro Lestari Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -20.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AALI use?
Our models discount Astra Agro Lestari Tbk at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Astra Agro Lestari Tbk that is -20.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies -20.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (-20.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.65 %: that much free cash flow Astra Agro Lestari Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Astra Agro Lestari Tbk it is 16,058 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 7,850 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Astra Agro Lestari Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AALI trades below its calculated fair value: price 7,850 IDR, fair value 16,058 IDR, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AALI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7,850 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16,058 IDR). For Astra Agro Lestari Tbk the two are 8,208 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Astra Agro Lestari Tbk worth?
The market values Astra Agro Lestari Tbk at about 15.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 7,850 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 16,058 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AALI?
Our models span a range for Astra Agro Lestari Tbk: cautious scenario 12,043 IDR, base 16,058 IDR, optimistic 20,072 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 7,850 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AALI?
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16,058 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AALI?
The PEG ratio of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 0.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AALI from its 52-week high?
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk trades at 7,850 IDR, about 10% below its 52-week high of 8,675 IDR and 34% above the low of 5,875 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16,058 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Astra Agro Lestari Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Astra Agro Lestari Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 7,850 IDR, calculated fair value 16,058 IDR (+105%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AALI calculated?
We run Astra Agro Lestari Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16,058 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk currently trades 105 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 7,850 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 16,058 IDR, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Astra Agro Lestari Tbk right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (12,043 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) come from?
Earnings per share at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk grew −5.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin −9.5 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The market capitalisation of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 15.1T IDR (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Earnings per share at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk are 814.69 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The dividend yield of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 5.8% (payout 56.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The net margin of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
The operating margin of Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Revenue at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is growing +6.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
Earnings per share at Astra Agro Lestari Tbk are growing +34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) hold?
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk holds more cash than debt, 2.8T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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