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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 12.4T IDR

PA PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk AALI · JK
Price7,325 IDR
Fair Value16,058 IDR
Upside+119.2%
Quality72/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 5.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
7.13% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (14/15)
Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range 12,043 IDR – 20,072 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +19.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 119% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (12,043 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

10,712 IDR 4,786 IDR Fair Value 16,058 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4,786 IDR – 10,712 IDR · fair‑value band 12,043 IDR – 20,072 IDR · the 7,325 IDR price screens below the 16,058 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) currently trades at 7,325 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,058 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 119.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk generated revenue of 29.1T IDR at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.8T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 12,043 IDR (bear case) to 20,072 IDR (bull case); at 7,325 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at 119%, AALI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 23,544 IDR 39,486 IDR 67,203 IDR 80
Residual Income 9,871 IDR 10,297 IDR 10,790 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 16,031 IDR 24,654 IDR 35,354 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 23,408 IDR 39,822 IDR 68,219 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 15,831 IDR 26,586 IDR 45,192 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 16,031 IDR 24,630 IDR 35,788 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 20,607 IDR 33,707 IDR 49,568 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 15,906 IDR 24,382 IDR 33,594 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 17,923 IDR 26,815 IDR 39,373 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 21,369 IDR 33,473 IDR 50,745 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 18,231 IDR 26,633 IDR 37,562 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5,200 IDR 20,890 IDR 28,406 IDR 54
Lynch FV 5,203 IDR 7,432 IDR 9,662 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 5,203 IDR 7,432 IDR 9,662 IDR 46
EPV 10,410 IDR 11,994 IDR 13,402 IDR 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 12,043 IDR 16,058 IDR 20,072 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 9,749 IDR 12,999 IDR 16,249 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 9,749 IDR 12,999 IDR 16,249 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 17,443 IDR 22,781 IDR 28,118 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 21,042 IDR 27,578 IDR 34,115 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 12,860 IDR 17,757 IDR 22,655 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 6,119 IDR 8,200 IDR 12,239 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 23,544 IDR 39,486 IDR 67,203 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 16,031 IDR 24,654 IDR 35,354 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 9,871 IDR 10,297 IDR 10,790 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 10,410 IDR 11,994 IDR 15,147 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 9,116 IDR 13,023 IDR 16,930 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (26,633 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (7,432 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 29.1T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.8%
Net margin 5.4%
Return on equity 6.8%
Free cash flow 3.3T IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 7.9
More key figures
Operating margin 7.1%
EPS (TTM) 814.69 IDR
Dividend yield 7.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +34.8%
Net cash 2.8T IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk engages in the crude palm oil and related derivatives business in Indonesia. It also offers palm kernel and its derivatives. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Astra International Tbk.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk reported revenue of 28.7T IDR in FY2025 versus 24.3T IDR in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5T IDR in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
28.7T IDR
Latest YoY
+31.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.8%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+13.8%
Revenue +4.2%/yr
FY21 24.3T IDR
FY22 21.8T IDR
FY23 20.7T IDR
FY24 21.8T IDR
FY25 28.7T IDR
Net income −7.0%/yr
FY21 2.0T IDR
FY22 1.7T IDR
FY23 1.1T IDR
FY24 1.1T IDR
FY25 1.5T IDR

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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk · Fair Value
16,058 IDR +119%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AALI

Peer Group

Farm Products · 291 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +119% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.43× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.94× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 34 · sector 21
PAST 27 · sector 17
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.90 ¥48.19 +18%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.51 ¥12.08 -17%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 188.40 kr 262.59 +39%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,120 IDR 7,076 IDR +127%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.00 THB 55.71 THB +153%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,540 IDR 3,105 IDR +102%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,300 IDR 7,463 IDR +2%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,070 IDR 7,231 IDR +249%
Thaifoods Group TFGR 10.60 THB 23.53 THB +122%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,845 IDR 610.80 IDR -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,058 IDR versus a price of 7,325 IDR, about +119% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AALI?
Our model-based fair value for PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is 16,058 IDR (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 7,325 IDR.
What is the quality score of AALI?
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)?
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AALI?
The net profit margin of PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is about 5.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.18% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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