Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc $0.29, price $0.10, upside +191.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0600 – $0.7990 · fair‑value band $0.1891 – $0.3574 · the $0.0990 price screens below the $0.2881 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Adaptive Ad Systems Inc. operates as a digital media and video communications company in the United States. It, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, develops, and deploys dynamic digital ad insertion (DDAI) and streaming media hardware and proprietary processing software (DDAI) for the cable TV, satellite, and IPTV markets.
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Adaptive Ad Systems Inc. operates as a digital media and video communications company in the United States. It, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, develops, and deploys dynamic digital ad insertion (DDAI) and streaming media hardware and proprietary processing software (DDAI) for the cable TV, satellite, and IPTV markets. The company also offers high speed fixed wireless internet services (WISP) to residences and small offices via a network of Hybrid Access Points and Micro POPs. It serves approximately seventy-five designated marketing areas in approximately forty states. The company was formerly known as Adaptive Media, Inc. and changed its name to Adaptive Ad Systems, Inc. in June 2014. Adaptive Ad Systems Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Vancouver, Washington.
Stock analysis
Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV) currently trades at $0.0990, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2881, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.1891 (bear) to $0.3574 (bull), the price of $0.0990 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Adaptive Ad Systems Inc reported revenue of $1.9M in FY2025 versus $5.6M in FY2021, a compound −23.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.0M · Net margin −78.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Free cash flow −$1.8M · Net cash $11.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 191%, AATV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1891Fair Value $0.2881Bull $0.3574
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−74.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−43.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
51.5% (2020) → −128.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Adaptive Ad Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+191% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−79% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adaptive Ad Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AATV
Frequently asked questions
Is Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2881 versus a price of $0.0990, about +191% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AATV?
Our model-based fair value for Adaptive Ad Systems Inc is $0.2881 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0990.
What is the quality score of AATV?
Adaptive Ad Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2881 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1891, optimistic scenario $0.3574. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adaptive Ad Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2881, about +191% upside versus a price of $0.0990 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1891, optimistic scenario $0.3574. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adaptive Ad Systems Inc it is $0.2881 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0990. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adaptive Ad Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AATV trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0990, fair value $0.2881, a gap of about +191% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AATV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0990); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2881). For Adaptive Ad Systems Inc the two are $0.1891 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adaptive Ad Systems Inc worth?
The market values Adaptive Ad Systems Inc at about $5.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0990; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2881 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AATV?
Our models span a range for Adaptive Ad Systems Inc: cautious scenario $0.1891, base $0.2881, optimistic $0.3574 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0990). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AATV from its 52-week high?
Adaptive Ad Systems Inc trades at $0.0990, about 43% below its 52-week high of $0.1750 and 65% above the low of $0.0600 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2881 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adaptive Ad Systems Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adaptive Ad Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0990, calculated fair value $0.2881 (+191%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AATV calculated?
We run Adaptive Ad Systems Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2881, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Adaptive Ad Systems Inc currently trades 191 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.0990. Our model-based fair value is $0.2881, about +191% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adaptive Ad Systems Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1891). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.1891 to $0.3574) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV) come from?
Earnings per share at Adaptive Ad Systems Inc grew +1.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin −6.4 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV)?
The market capitalisation of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc is $5.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV)?
The net margin of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc is −78.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV) generate?
The free cash flow of Adaptive Ad Systems Inc is −$1.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Adaptive Ad Systems Inc (AATV) hold?
Adaptive Ad Systems Inc holds more cash than debt, $11.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026