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Air Canada (ACDVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Air Canada $40.07, price $17.68, upside +126.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Air Canada
ACDVF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $40.07 · Strongly undervalued (+126.6%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +30.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 38/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.95 – $21.99 · fair‑value band $22.13 – $52.09 · the $17.68 price screens below the $40.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Air Canada provides domestic, U.S. transborder, and international airline services. It provides scheduled passenger services under the Air Canada Vacations and Air Canada Rouge brand names in the Canadian market, the Canada-U.S.
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Air Canada provides domestic, U.S. transborder, and international airline services. It provides scheduled passenger services under the Air Canada Vacations and Air Canada Rouge brand names in the Canadian market, the Canada-U.S. transborder market, and in the international market to and from Canada, as well as through capacity purchase agreements on other regional carriers. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated a fleet of 223 aircraft under the Air Canada brand name comprising 132 Airbus narrow-body aircraft, and 91 Airbus wide-body aircraft; 33 aircraft under the Air Canada Rouge brand name consisting of 13 Airbus A321 aircraft, 5 Airbus A320 aircraft, and 15 Airbus A319 aircraft; 105 aircraft under the Air Canada Express brand name, including 25 Embraer 175, 35 Mitsubishi CRJ-900, and 45 De Havilland Dash 8-400aircraft; and 15 Mitsubishi CRJ-200 aircraft. It provides air cargo services for routes between Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, South America, and Australia. In addition, the company develops, operates, markets, and distributes vacation travel packages in the Caribbean, Mexico, the United States, Europe, Central and South America, Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East; offers cruise packages in North America, Europe, the Caribbean, Japan, and Dubai; and provides travel loyalty programs. It also operates Air Canada Café. Air Canada was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.
Stock analysis
Air Canada (ACDVF) currently trades at $17.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.07, implying the stock looks roughly 55.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $50.11 per share, and 19 of the 23 models we run sit above the $17.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.25, and 4 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.13 (bear) to $52.09 (bull), the price of $17.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Air Canada reported revenue of C$22.4B in FY2025 versus C$6.4B in FY2021, a compound +36.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$644M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $1.73 · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 33.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 127%, ACDVF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.13
Fair Value $40.07
Bull $52.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.31 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$34.27
$65.89
$146.83
74
EPV
$8.32
$10.93
$13.17
74
Growth DCF
$32.72
$73.04
$140.38
74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$34.27
$65.89
$146.83
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$19.34
$40.69
$72.45
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$51.27
$112.29
$199.65
71
5Y P/E Exit
$21.28
$45.77
$75.65
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$23.11
$46.75
$81.75
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$45.45
$101.99
$201.24
64
10Y P/E Exit
$25.18
$50.11
$89.22
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$10.71
$67.41
$94.18
63
Lynch FV
$19.45
$27.78
$36.11
61
PEG = 1.0
$19.45
$27.78
$36.11
57
EPV
$8.32
$10.93
$13.17
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$24.80
$33.07
$41.34
63
P/S Multiple
$20.08
$26.77
$33.47
58
P/B Multiple
$20.08
$26.77
$33.47
55
EV/EBIT
$20.45
$29.99
$39.53
65
EV/EBITDA
$61.69
$84.97
$108.26
67
EV/Revenue
$12.26
$21.01
$29.77
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.17
$4.25
$6.34
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$32.72
$73.04
$140.38
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$19.34
$40.65
$71.14
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$9.75
$13.79
$27.55
66
ROIC Compounder
$9.76
$17.47
$23.64
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$27.69
$39.56
$51.43
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
’13
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−59% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.3% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
Watch ACDVF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Aeroplan Credit Cards to Include New Travel Benefits and 15% Savings on Air Canada Flight Rewards
- Air Canada Completes $800 Million Substantial Issuer Bid
- The table is set for the 14th edition of MTLàTABLE, presented by Amex Canada, featuring 165 Montréal restaurants
- Air Canada (TSX:AC) Could Be 22% Undervalued On Its $800 Million Buyback
Compare Air Canada with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.13 | $121.83 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $111.51 | $149.61 | +34% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €23.79 | €48.63 | +104% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $42.28 | $14.74 | −65% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹4,940 | ₹3,073 | −38% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 6.65 SGD | 7.88 SGD | +18% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.45 | $106.79 | +104% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.86 | ¥2.78 | −43% |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 | HK$14.37 | HK$31.02 | +116% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.60 | €9.90 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Air Canada (ACDVF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.07 versus a price of $17.68, about +127% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ACDVF?
Our model-based fair value for Air Canada is $40.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.68.
What is the quality score of ACDVF?
Air Canada has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Air Canada (ACDVF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.13, optimistic scenario $52.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Air Canada stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.07, about +127% upside versus a price of $17.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $22.13, optimistic scenario $52.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
Air Canada reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$23.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Air Canada (ACDVF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Air Canada would have to grow free cash flow by +14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACDVF use?
Our models discount Air Canada at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Air Canada that is +14.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Air Canada (ACDVF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Air Canada grew +30.9 % a year. The price currently implies +14.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Air Canada (ACDVF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Air Canada (+14.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.07 %: that much free cash flow Air Canada produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Air Canada it is $40.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $17.68. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Air Canada stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ACDVF trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.68, fair value $40.07, a gap of about +127% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACDVF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.07). For Air Canada the two are $22.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Air Canada worth?
The market values Air Canada at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $17.68; our models calculate a fair value of $40.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACDVF?
Our models span a range for Air Canada: cautious scenario $22.13, base $40.07, optimistic $52.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $17.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ACDVF from its 52-week high?
Air Canada trades at $17.68, about 20% below its 52-week high of $21.99 and 46% above the low of $12.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Air Canada?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Air Canada stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $17.68, calculated fair value $40.07 (+127%), Quality Score 50/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACDVF calculated?
We run Air Canada through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Air Canada currently trades 56 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $17.68. Our model-based fair value is $40.07, about +127% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Air Canada right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($22.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($22.13 to $52.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Air Canada
How large is the market capitalisation of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The market capitalisation of Air Canada is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Air Canada is 10.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Air Canada is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
Earnings per share at Air Canada are $1.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The net margin of Air Canada is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Air Canada is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Air Canada is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Air Canada (ACDVF)?
The operating margin of Air Canada is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Air Canada (ACDVF)?
Revenue at Air Canada is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Air Canada (ACDVF)?
Earnings per share at Air Canada are growing −83.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Air Canada (ACDVF) carry?
The net debt of Air Canada is C$5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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