ACEA S.p.A (ACE) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IT · Market cap €4.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€14.55 to €40.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from €14.55 (bear) to €40.28 (bull), base €19.01. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €9.08 – €26.44 · fair‑value band €14.55 – €40.28 · the €21.18 price screens above the €19.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
ACEA S.p.A (ACE) currently trades at €21.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.01, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ACEA S.p.A generated revenue of €2.8B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. Net debt stands at €4.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €14.55 (bear case) to €40.28 (bull case); at €21.18, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -10%, ACE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€30.99) versus Earnings-Based (€5.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ACEA S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-utility company in Italy. The company operates through Environment, Commercial, Water, Water (Overseas), Production, Engineering & Infrastructure Projects, and Network & Public Lighting segments.
Full company description
ACEA S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-utility company in Italy. The company operates through Environment, Commercial, Water, Water (Overseas), Production, Engineering & Infrastructure Projects, and Network & Public Lighting segments. It is involved in the waste management, power generation, water management, energy distribution and production, gas distribution, management of engineering services, and sale of electricity and natural gas, as well as supplies value added environmental services. The company also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and photovoltaic sources. In addition, it provides sludge management, treatment, recycling; waste-to-energy and waste disposal management of recyclable plastics; water services; laboratory analysis, and engineering and consultancy services; public lighting; energy management; and design, construction, and management of integrated water systems. ACEA S.p.A. was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ACEA S.p.A reported revenue of €2.9B in FY2025 versus €3.8B in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was €481M in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ACE screens 10% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €21.25 | €9.34 | -56% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €10.28 | €5.83 | -43% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €26.59 | €17.39 | -35% |
| Sempra SRE | $93.15 | $47.77 | -49% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €19.34 | €11.71 | -39% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.52 | €29.64 | -48% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 198.20 SAR | 25.38 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$55.05 | C$17.66 | -68% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €69.00 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.41 | €3.81 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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