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ACEA S.p.A (ACE) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €4.8B

AS ACEA S.p.A ACE · MI
Price€21.18
Fair Value€19.01
Upside-10.3%
Quality52/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
4.20% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: High Range €14.55 – €40.28 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Share price −0.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (€14.55 to €40.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Our model range runs from €14.55 (bear) to €40.28 (bull), base €19.01. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€26.44 €9.08 Fair Value €19.01 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €9.08 – €26.44 · fair‑value band €14.55 – €40.28 · the €21.18 price screens above the €19.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

ACEA S.p.A (ACE) currently trades at €21.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.01, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, ACEA S.p.A generated revenue of €2.8B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. Net debt stands at €4.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €14.55 (bear case) to €40.28 (bull case); at €21.18, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -10%, ACE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €0.3900 80
Residual Income €14.28 €18.66 €54.51 76
Rev-Margin DCF €7.48 €19.71 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.8400 38
5Y Revenue Exit €7.23 €21.65 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.78 €26.61 €50.55 41
5Y P/E Exit €0.0500 €11.64 €25.63 38
10Y Revenue Exit €1.29 €9.51 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €1.31 €13.32 €26.78 37
10Y P/E Exit €4.03 €11.90 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €15.38 €21.44 €25.02 54
EPV €2.38 €5.90 €8.94 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €6.59 €7.26 €8.20 70
DDM Multi-Stage €6.59 €8.35 €10.62 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €30.52 €40.70 €50.87 63
P/S Multiple €25.57 €34.10 €42.62 58
P/B Multiple €17.66 €23.55 €29.44 55
EV/EBIT €15.50 €27.30 €39.10 53
EV/EBITDA €27.44 €43.22 €59.00 54
EV/Revenue €3.96 €14.19 €24.42 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €6.54 €8.77 €13.08 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.3900 80
Rev-Margin DCF €7.48 €19.71 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €14.28 €18.66 €54.51 76
ROIC Compounder €2.38 €5.90 €8.94 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €21.69 €30.99 €40.28 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€30.99) versus Earnings-Based (€5.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €2.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.6%
Net margin 17.8%
Return on equity 13.2%
Free cash flow €236M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.6
More key figures
Operating margin 21.1%
EPS (TTM) €1.78
Dividend yield 4.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.0%
Net debt €4.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ACEA S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-utility company in Italy. The company operates through Environment, Commercial, Water, Water (Overseas), Production, Engineering & Infrastructure Projects, and Network & Public Lighting segments.

Full company description

ACEA S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-utility company in Italy. The company operates through Environment, Commercial, Water, Water (Overseas), Production, Engineering & Infrastructure Projects, and Network & Public Lighting segments. It is involved in the waste management, power generation, water management, energy distribution and production, gas distribution, management of engineering services, and sale of electricity and natural gas, as well as supplies value added environmental services. The company also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and photovoltaic sources. In addition, it provides sludge management, treatment, recycling; waste-to-energy and waste disposal management of recyclable plastics; water services; laboratory analysis, and engineering and consultancy services; public lighting; energy management; and design, construction, and management of integrated water systems. ACEA S.p.A. was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ACEA S.p.A reported revenue of €2.9B in FY2025 versus €3.8B in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was €481M in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€2.9B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Revenue −6.8%/yr
FY21 €3.8B
FY22 €5.0B
FY23 €4.4B
FY24 €4.2B
FY25 €2.9B
Net income +11.3%/yr
FY21 €313M
FY22 €280M
FY23 €294M
FY24 €332M
FY25 €481M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2012-2023) +9.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.2 pp

of which total revenue +3.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +1.3 pp
Tax rate +2.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ACE screens 10% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ACEA S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACE

Peer Group

Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −10% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Above median
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.75× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.97× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.99× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 23.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 4.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 20 · sector 14
FUTURE 8 · sector 0
PAST 53 · sector 33
HEALTH 13 · sector 49
DIVIDEND 84 · sector 80

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Iberdrola, S.A IBE €21.25 €9.34 -56%
Enel SpA ENEL €10.28 €5.83 -43%
Engie SA 1ENGI €26.59 €17.39 -35%
Sempra SRE $93.15 $47.77 -49%
E.ON SE EOAN €19.34 €11.71 -39%
RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE €56.52 €29.64 -48%
ACWA Power Company 2082 198.20 SAR 25.38 SAR -87%
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN C$55.05 C$17.66 -68%
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK €69.00 €21.11 -69%
EDP, S.A EDP €4.41 €3.81 -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ACEA S.p.A (ACE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €19.01 versus a price of €21.18, about −10% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACE?
Our model-based fair value for ACEA S.p.A is €19.01 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €21.18.
What is the quality score of ACE?
ACEA S.p.A has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ACEA S.p.A (ACE)?
ACEA S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ACE?
The net profit margin of ACEA S.p.A is about 17.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ACEA S.p.A pay a dividend?
ACEA S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.20% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 14, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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