Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi stock TRY 14.18, price TRY 38.92, upside -63.6%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range 24.92 TRY – 71.00 TRY · fair‑value band 12.02 TRY – 16.17 TRY · the 38.92 TRY price screens above the 14.18 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi operates as a real estate investment trust in Turkey. The company manages portfolios of real estate, real estate projects, real estate-based rights, capital market instruments, and other assets. It also engages in real estate investment activities.
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In addition, the company engages in establishment, rental, operation of hotels, motels, hostels, campsites, and guesthouses for tourism, and business operations. Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Izmir, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO) currently trades at 38.92 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.18 TRY, 63.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 19.67 TRY per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 38.92 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.70 TRY, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.02 TRY (bear) to 16.17 TRY (bull), the price of 38.92 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi reported revenue of 807M TRY in FY2025 versus 10.6M TRY in FY2021, a compound +195.3%/yr. Reported net income was −606M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 21.2B TRY (≈ $425M) Small · P/S ratio 29.0 · EPS (TTM) −2.09 TRY · Net margin −75.1% · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% · Operating margin 34.7% · Revenue (TTM) 759M TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −64%, ADGYO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear12.02 TRYFair Value 14.18 TRYBull16.17 TRY
Price 38.92 TRY · Upside -63.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF16.30 TRY19.60 TRY24.76 TRY79
Growth DCF16.59 TRY19.67 TRY24.14 TRY77
5Y EBITDA Exit13.20 TRY16.68 TRY21.28 TRY74
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF16.30 TRY19.60 TRY24.76 TRY79
5Y Revenue Exit12.21 TRY14.95 TRY18.91 TRY71
5Y EBITDA Exit13.20 TRY16.68 TRY21.28 TRY74
10Y Revenue Exit14.14 TRY16.05 TRY17.92 TRY65
10Y EBITDA Exit14.74 TRY16.89 TRY19.02 TRY67
Multiples
EV/EBIT12.40 TRY16.59 TRY20.77 TRY66
EV/EBITDA9.64 TRY12.91 TRY16.18 TRY67
EV/Revenue6.76 TRY9.73 TRY12.70 TRY53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)5.08 TRY7.70 TRY9.62 TRY54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF16.59 TRY19.67 TRY24.14 TRY77
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
42.8% (2021) → 60.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.9% a year for the price.
Compare Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 41 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−63.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−137.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−25.9% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)27.98× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow17.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA49.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 77
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.18 TRY versus a price of 38.92 TRY, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADGYO?
Our model-based fair value for Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is 14.18 TRY (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 38.92 TRY.
What is the quality score of ADGYO?
Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 14.18 TRY (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.02 TRY, optimistic scenario 16.17 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 14.18 TRY, about −64% upside versus a price of 38.92 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.02 TRY, optimistic scenario 16.17 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 759M TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi would have to grow free cash flow by +15.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +195.3 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADGYO use?
Our models discount Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi that is +15.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi grew +195.3 % a year. The price currently implies +15.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (+15.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.89 %: that much free cash flow Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi it is 14.18 TRY per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of 38.92 TRY. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ADGYO trades above its calculated fair value: price 38.92 TRY, fair value 14.18 TRY, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADGYO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (38.92 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (14.18 TRY). For Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi the two are 24.74 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi worth?
The market values Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi at about 21.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is 38.92 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 14.18 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADGYO?
Our models span a range for Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi: cautious scenario 12.02 TRY, base 14.18 TRY, optimistic 16.17 TRY per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price 38.92 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADGYO from its 52-week high?
Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi trades at 38.92 TRY, about 45% below its 52-week high of 71.00 TRY and at the low of 38.92 TRY (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 14.18 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Essex Property Trust, Inc, Sun Communities, Inc, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, UDR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price 38.92 TRY, calculated fair value 14.18 TRY (−64%), Quality Score 34/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADGYO calculated?
We run Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 14.18 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was 38.92 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 14.18 TRY, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (16.17 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi
How large is the market capitalisation of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The market capitalisation of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is 21.2B TRY (≈ $425M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is 29.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Earnings per share at Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi are −2.09 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The net margin of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is −75.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
The operating margin of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Revenue at Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is growing −25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO)?
Earnings per share at Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi are growing −62.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi (ADGYO) carry?
The net debt of Adra Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi is 91.1M TRY (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 1, 2026