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Adairs Limited (ADH) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$253M

AL Adairs Limited ADH · AU
PriceA$1.53
Fair ValueA$3.16
Upside+106.5%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.71% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Narrow moat 40/100
Evidence: High Range A$2.37 – A$3.95 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +2.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 107% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$2.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$3.70 A$1.05 Fair Value A$3.16 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.05 – A$3.70 · fair‑value band A$2.37 – A$3.95 · the A$1.53 price screens below the A$3.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Adairs Limited (ADH) currently trades at A$1.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.16, implying the stock looks roughly 106.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Adairs Limited generated revenue of A$637M at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at A$304M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$2.37 (bear case) to A$3.95 (bull case); at A$1.53, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 107%, ADH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$3.68 A$6.17 A$10.06 80
Residual Income A$1.05 A$1.15 A$1.35 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$3.42 A$6.12 A$11.77 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$3.95 A$5.69 A$10.77 38
Owner Earnings A$4.37 A$8.96 A$16.95 31
5Y Revenue Exit A$3.08 A$5.30 A$9.92 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$5.02 A$9.21 A$17.43 41
5Y P/E Exit A$2.69 A$5.64 A$9.51 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$3.30 A$6.88 A$8.93 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$4.60 A$10.44 A$20.54 37
10Y P/E Exit A$3.15 A$6.17 A$10.81 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.9800 A$6.82 A$9.57 54
Lynch FV A$3.52 A$5.03 A$6.54 50
PEG = 1.0 A$3.52 A$5.03 A$6.54 46
EPV A$1.37 A$1.58 A$1.75 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$0.7700 A$1.29 A$1.67 70
DDM Multi-Stage A$0.7700 A$1.22 A$1.39 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$2.37 A$3.16 A$3.95 63
P/S Multiple A$1.83 A$2.44 A$3.06 58
P/B Multiple A$1.83 A$2.44 A$3.06 55
EV/EBIT A$3.74 A$5.11 A$6.48 53
EV/EBITDA A$5.59 A$7.58 A$9.57 54
EV/Revenue A$2.40 A$3.58 A$4.77 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.6300 A$0.8400 A$1.26 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$3.68 A$6.17 A$10.06 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$3.42 A$6.12 A$11.77 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.05 A$1.15 A$1.35 76
ROIC Compounder A$1.47 A$2.00 A$2.42 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$4.68 A$6.68 A$8.68 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$6.68) versus Asset-Based (A$0.8400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$637M
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.9%
Net margin 3.0%
Return on equity 8.2%
Free cash flow A$65.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.2
More key figures
Operating margin 8.5%
EPS (TTM) A$0.1000
Dividend yield 6.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -35.0%
Net debt A$304M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Adairs Limited operates as a specialty retailer of home furnishings, furniture, and decoration products in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka.

Full company description

Adairs Limited operates as a specialty retailer of home furnishings, furniture, and decoration products in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka. It offers bedroom products, such as bedlinen, bedding, and bedroom furniture and accessories; bathroom and laundry products, including towels, bath mats and runners, bathrobes and slippers, bathroom accessories, and laundry and home care products; furniture products, such as bedroom, office, living room, and kids furniture; and floor rugs and mats. The company also home and outdoor products comprising of home styling, home care and gifting, pets, outdoor, storage, and kitchen products; kid's products, including kids bedlinen, bedding, décor, bathroom, furniture, and nursery, as well as gifting products. It sells its products under Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka brands and through online stores. The company was formerly known as Home & Decor Holdings Pty Ltd and changed its name to Adairs Limited in May 2015. Adairs Limited was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Chadstone, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Adairs Limited reported revenue of A$618M in FY2025 versus A$500M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$25.7M in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$618M
Latest YoY
+4.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.6%
Revenue +5.5%/yr
FY21 A$500M
FY22 A$564M
FY23 A$621M
FY24 A$594M
FY25 A$618M
Net income −20.3%/yr
FY21 A$63.7M
FY22 A$44.9M
FY23 A$37.8M
FY24 A$31.1M
FY25 A$25.7M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +9.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.1 pp

of which total revenue +12.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.5 pp

EBIT margin −3.9 pp
Tax rate −0.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adairs Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADH

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +107% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.34× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 29
FUTURE 30 · sector 23
PAST 33 · sector 27
HEALTH 83 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $827.04 $405.44 -51%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $222.84 $164.16 -26%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $479.57 $488.39 +2%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $208.89 $181.10 -13%
Best Buy Co BBY $83.98 $109.12 +30%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥52.90 ¥40.40 -24%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $31.01 $35.52 +15%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $618.57 $423.35 -32%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $197.71 $117.29 -41%
Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 110.50 TWD 80.98 TWD -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Adairs Limited (ADH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.16 versus a price of A$1.53, about +107% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADH?
Our model-based fair value for Adairs Limited is A$3.16 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$1.53.
What is the quality score of ADH?
Adairs Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Adairs Limited (ADH)?
Adairs Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$637M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ADH?
The net profit margin of Adairs Limited is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Adairs Limited pay a dividend?
Adairs Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.34% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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