Adairs Limited (ADH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$253M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 107% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$2.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.05 – A$3.70 · fair‑value band A$2.37 – A$3.95 · the A$1.53 price screens below the A$3.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Adairs Limited (ADH) currently trades at A$1.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.16, implying the stock looks roughly 106.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Adairs Limited generated revenue of A$637M at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at A$304M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.37 (bear case) to A$3.95 (bull case); at A$1.53, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 107%, ADH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$6.68) versus Asset-Based (A$0.8400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Adairs Limited operates as a specialty retailer of home furnishings, furniture, and decoration products in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka.
Full company description
Adairs Limited operates as a specialty retailer of home furnishings, furniture, and decoration products in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka. It offers bedroom products, such as bedlinen, bedding, and bedroom furniture and accessories; bathroom and laundry products, including towels, bath mats and runners, bathrobes and slippers, bathroom accessories, and laundry and home care products; furniture products, such as bedroom, office, living room, and kids furniture; and floor rugs and mats. The company also home and outdoor products comprising of home styling, home care and gifting, pets, outdoor, storage, and kitchen products; kid's products, including kids bedlinen, bedding, décor, bathroom, furniture, and nursery, as well as gifting products. It sells its products under Adairs, Focus on Furniture, and Mocka brands and through online stores. The company was formerly known as Home & Decor Holdings Pty Ltd and changed its name to Adairs Limited in May 2015. Adairs Limited was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Chadstone, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Adairs Limited reported revenue of A$618M in FY2025 versus A$500M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$25.7M in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch ADH: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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