ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.2B
ADTRAN Holdings
ADTN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −41.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 39% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.42 to $13.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.38 – $24.32 · fair‑value band $7.42 – $13.59 · the $7.56 price screens below the $10.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) currently trades at $7.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.51, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ADTRAN Holdings generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of -3.2%. Revenue grew 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.9%. Net debt stands at $149M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.42 (bear case) to $13.59 (bull case); at $7.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at 39%, ADTN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($13.89) versus Asset-Based ($1.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support.
Full company description
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. It offers residential gateways; ethernet passive optical network ONUs; gigabit passive optical network/XGS-PON ONTs; routers, and switches; edge cloud; carrier ethernet network interface devices; Optical Line Terminals; Packet Aggregation, Copper Access, and Oscilloquartz; optical transport and engine solutions; infrastructure monitoring solution; and training, professional, software, and managed services. The company provides various software, such as Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E. It serves large, medium, and small service providers; alternative service providers, such as utilities, municipalities and fiber overbuilders; cable/MSOs; and SMBs and distributed enterprises. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ADTRAN Holdings reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $563M in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$45.7M in FY2025.
Watch ADTN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ADTN Falls 46.2% in 3 Months: Is the Selloff Now Overdone?
- Should Investors Buy ADTN or Wait for Better Execution Signals?
- Can ADTRAN's AI Networking Push Offset Near-Term Execution Risks?
- ADTRAN Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Healthy Revenue Growth
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 290 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $413.31 | $190.43 | -54% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥244.13 | ¥32.04 | -87% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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