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Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 17, 2026: fair value of Andrew Peller Limited $4.66, price $5.59, upside -16.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AP
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Andrew Peller Limited
ADWPF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $4.66 · Overvalued (−16.6%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.9% net margin (FY2025)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 40/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.38 – $10.56 · fair‑value band $3.49 – $5.82 · the $5.59 price screens above the $4.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Andrew Peller Limited produces and markets wines and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada.
Show more
Andrew Peller Limited produces and markets wines and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada. The company offers wines under the Peller Estates, Trius, Thirty Bench, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, Red Rooster, Black Hills Estate Winery, Tinhorn Creek Vineyards, Gray Monk Estate Winery, Raven Conspiracy, and Conviction brands; Peller Family Vineyards, Copper Moon, Black Cellar, Vivo, Honest Lot, and XOXO brands; and Hochtaler, Domaine D'Or, Schloss Laderheim, Royal, and Sommet brands. It also produces craft ciders under the No Boats on Sunday brand; and various spirits and cream whisky products under the Wayne Gretzky No. 99 brand. In addition, the company produces and markets personal winemaking products under the Winexpert, Vine Co., Apres, Limited Edition, Passport Series, On the House, Wild Grapes, Island Mist, and Niagara Mist brands. Further, it owns and operates independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store names; and operates Andrew Peller Import Agency and The Small Winemaker's Collection Inc., which import and market premium wines. Andrew Peller Limited was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Grimsby, Canada.
Stock analysis
Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) currently trades at $5.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.66, 16.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.89 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the $5.59 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.31, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.49 (bear) to $5.82 (bull), the price of $5.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Andrew Peller Limited reported revenue of C$390M in FY2025 versus C$393M in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$11.1M in FY2025, compounding −20.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $245M · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.3300 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −17%, ADWPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.49
Fair Value $4.66
Bull $5.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3300 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.80
$7.35
$10.28
80
Growth DCF
$4.90
$7.21
$9.74
79
Residual Income
$3.32
$3.27
$3.34
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.80
$7.35
$10.28
80
Owner Earnings
$0.8900
$2.29
$3.90
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.65
$6.73
$10.44
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.82
$10.57
$15.81
74
5Y P/E Exit
$1.71
$3.29
$4.81
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.95
$6.52
$9.56
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.26
$8.73
$12.89
68
10Y P/E Exit
$3.06
$4.54
$6.07
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.49
$3.43
$4.40
65
PEG = 1.0
$0.5800
$0.8200
$1.07
57
EPV
$0.7600
$1.31
$1.76
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.43
$2.08
$2.65
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.43
$1.92
$2.36
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.45
$4.60
$5.75
63
P/S Multiple
$2.79
$3.72
$4.65
58
P/B Multiple
$2.79
$3.72
$4.65
55
EV/EBIT
$6.00
$9.28
$12.56
65
EV/EBITDA
$8.24
$12.27
$16.30
66
EV/Revenue
$3.18
$6.19
$9.21
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.40
$3.22
$4.80
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.90
$7.21
$9.74
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.65
$6.89
$10.38
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.32
$3.27
$3.34
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.7600
$1.31
$1.76
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.60
$3.71
$4.82
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
97
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.5% vs −1.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price.
ADWPF screens overvalued: fair value 17% below the price. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
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| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥69.67 | ¥76.64 | +10% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥111.18 | ¥209.69 | +89% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €59.00 | €56.69 | −4% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥70.65 | ¥149.17 | +111% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4400 SGD | 0.7300 SGD | +66% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥37.47 | ¥24.22 | −35% |
| Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO | ₹4,557 | ₹947.39 | −79% |
| Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co 603369 | ¥26.92 | ¥38.66 | +44% |
| Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co 603198 | ¥37.20 | ¥30.27 | −19% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.66 versus the last price from Aug 17, 2026 of $5.59, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADWPF?
Our model-based fair value for Andrew Peller Limited is $4.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 17, 2026): $5.59.
What is the quality score of ADWPF?
Andrew Peller Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.49, optimistic scenario $5.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Andrew Peller Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.66, about −17% upside versus the last price from Aug 17, 2026 of $5.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.49, optimistic scenario $5.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Andrew Peller Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$389M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Andrew Peller Limited pay a dividend?
Andrew Peller Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Andrew Peller Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADWPF use?
Our models discount Andrew Peller Limited at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Andrew Peller Limited that is +3.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Andrew Peller Limited grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Andrew Peller Limited (+3.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.43 %: that much free cash flow Andrew Peller Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Andrew Peller Limited it is $4.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.59. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Andrew Peller Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADWPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.59, fair value $4.66, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADWPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.66). For Andrew Peller Limited the two are $0.9300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Andrew Peller Limited worth?
The market values Andrew Peller Limited at about $245M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.59; our models calculate a fair value of $4.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADWPF?
Our models span a range for Andrew Peller Limited: cautious scenario $3.49, base $4.66, optimistic $5.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADWPF?
Andrew Peller Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Andrew Peller Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADWPF from its 52-week high?
Andrew Peller Limited trades at $5.59, about 2% below its 52-week high of $5.68 and 63% above the low of $3.42 (as of Aug 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Andrew Peller Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Andrew Peller Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.59, calculated fair value $4.66 (−17%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADWPF calculated?
We run Andrew Peller Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Andrew Peller Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 17, 2026 and stands at $5.59. Our model-based fair value is $4.66, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Andrew Peller Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Andrew Peller Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The market capitalisation of Andrew Peller Limited is $245M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Andrew Peller Limited is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Earnings per share at Andrew Peller Limited are $0.3300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The dividend yield of Andrew Peller Limited is 4.2% (payout 71.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The net margin of Andrew Peller Limited is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Andrew Peller Limited is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Andrew Peller Limited is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Revenue at Andrew Peller Limited is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF)?
Earnings per share at Andrew Peller Limited are growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) carry?
The net debt of Andrew Peller Limited is C$203M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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