AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) $6.40, price $5.00, upside +28.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.35 – $7.77 · fair‑value band $4.27 – $8.07 · the $5.00 price screens below the $6.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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AECI Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services for mining, water treatment, plant and animal health, food and beverage, manufacturing, and general industrial sectors. The company operates through four segments: AECI Mining, AECI Chemicals, AECI Managed Businesses, and AECI Property Services and Corporate.
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AECI Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services for mining, water treatment, plant and animal health, food and beverage, manufacturing, and general industrial sectors. The company operates through four segments: AECI Mining, AECI Chemicals, AECI Managed Businesses, and AECI Property Services and Corporate. The AECI Mining segment provides mine-to-mineral solutions for the mining sector, which includes commercial explosives, initiating systems, and blasting services, as well as surfactants for explosives manufacture. The AECI Chemicals segment supplies industrial and speciality chemical products; water treatment chemicals; and technology, equipment, and plant and crop protection products, as well as plant nutrients. The AECI Managed Businesses segment supplies products and services to customers in agriculture, industrial, manufacturing, road infrastructure, food and beverage, public water, and animal feed and products, as well as the textile sector. The AECI Property Services and Corporate segment offers property leasing and management services in the office, industrial, and retail sectors. It operates in South Africa, rest of the African continent, Europe, Asia, North America, South America, and Australia. AECI Ltd was founded in 1894 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR (AECLY) currently trades at $5.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.40, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $54.61 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $17.76, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.27 (bear) to $8.07 (bull), the price of $5.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR reported revenue of 32.2B ZAR in FY2025 versus 26.1B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 339M ZAR in FY2025, compounding −26.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $534M · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) $0.2400 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 28%, AECLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.27Fair Value $6.40Bull $8.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −10%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
Compare AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 706 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+28% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AECLY
Frequently asked questions
Is AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.40 versus a price of $5.00, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AECLY?
Our model-based fair value for AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is $6.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.00.
What is the quality score of AECLY?
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.27, optimistic scenario $8.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.40, about +28% upside versus a price of $5.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.27, optimistic scenario $8.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $32.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR pay a dividend?
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR it is $6.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AECLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.00, fair value $6.40, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AECLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.40). For AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR the two are $1.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR worth?
The market values AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR at about $534M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.00; our models calculate a fair value of $6.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AECLY?
Our models span a range for AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR: cautious scenario $4.27, base $6.40, optimistic $8.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AECLY?
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.40 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AECLY from its 52-week high?
AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR trades at $5.00, about 36% below its 52-week high of $7.77 and 2% above the low of $4.92 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.00, calculated fair value $6.40 (+28%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AECLY calculated?
We run AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $5.00. Our model-based fair value is $6.40, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR right now?
Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($4.27 to $8.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY) come from?
Earnings per share at AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate −4.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The market capitalisation of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is $534M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
Earnings per share at AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR are $0.2400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The dividend yield of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is 3.4% (payout 71.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The net margin of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
The operating margin of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
Revenue at AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is growing −2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY)?
Earnings per share at AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR are growing +27.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY) generate?
The free cash flow of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) (AECLY) carry?
The net debt of AE & CI Ltd. (South Africa) ADR is $507M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026