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Aedas Homes, S.A (AEDAS) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · ES · Market cap €983M

AH Aedas Homes, S.A AEDAS · MC
Price€21.20
Fair Value€23.68
Upside+11.7%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Narrow moat 42/100
Evidence: High Range €17.76 – €30.64 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −7.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
  • Our model range runs from €17.76 (bear) to €30.64 (bull), base €23.68. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 56/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€26.56 €7.62 Fair Value €23.68 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.62 – €26.56 · fair‑value band €17.76 – €30.64 · the €21.20 price screens below the €23.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Aedas Homes, S.A (AEDAS) currently trades at €21.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €23.68, implying the stock looks roughly 11.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Aedas Homes, S.A generated revenue of €368M at a net margin of 10.4%. Revenue grew 13.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.4%. Net debt stands at €327M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €17.76 (bear case) to €30.64 (bull case); at €21.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 12%, AEDAS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €26.26 €43.18 €69.78 80
Residual Income €15.67 €16.26 €16.26 76
Rev-Margin DCF €28.58 €48.80 €91.07 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €27.82 €39.23 €73.31 38
5Y Revenue Exit €26.18 €43.06 €78.38 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €32.62 €56.08 €102.09 41
10Y Revenue Exit €26.07 €52.88 €69.79 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €31.15 €65.55 €125.54 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €24.30 €43.78 €60.27 70
DDM Multi-Stage €24.30 €39.99 €46.77 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple €17.76 €23.68 €29.60 58
P/B Multiple €17.76 €23.68 €29.60 55
EV/EBIT €40.25 €52.66 €65.07 53
EV/EBITDA €34.36 €44.81 €55.25 54
EV/Revenue €23.55 €32.35 €41.15 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €10.18 €13.64 €20.36 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €26.26 €43.18 €69.78 80
Rev-Margin DCF €28.58 €48.80 €91.07 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €15.67 €16.26 €16.26 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€52.88) versus Asset-Based (€13.64). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €368M
Revenue growth (YoY) -38.6%
Net margin 10.4%
Return on equity 4.4%
Free cash flow €79.6M FY2026
P/E ratio 16.2
More key figures
Operating margin 11.7%
EPS (TTM) €1.39
EPS growth (YoY) -68.4%
Net debt €327M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Aedas Homes, S.A. engages in the development of residential properties in Spain. The company focuses on multi and single-family homes; provides real estate services; audiovisual distribution; and decoration and interior design services, as well as develop turnkey build-to-rent properties. It serves individuals and institutional investors.

Full company description

Aedas Homes, S.A. engages in the development of residential properties in Spain. The company focuses on multi and single-family homes; provides real estate services; audiovisual distribution; and decoration and interior design services, as well as develop turnkey build-to-rent properties. It serves individuals and institutional investors. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain. As of December 11, 2025, Aedas Homes, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Neinor Homes, S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Aedas Homes, S.A reported revenue of €869M in FY2026 versus €766M in FY2022, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was €60.9M in FY2026, compounding −10.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
€869M
Latest YoY
−24.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y)
+238.2%
Revenue +3.2%/yr
FY22 €766M
FY23 €920M
FY24 €1.1B
FY25 €1.2B
FY26 €869M
Net income −10.1%/yr
FY22 €93.1M
FY23 €105M
FY24 €109M
FY25 €150M
FY26 €60.9M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aedas Homes, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AEDAS

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +12% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth -39% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.23× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.28× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.09× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 14.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 15.5× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 49 · sector 48
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 18 · sector 10
HEALTH 89 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,100 IDR 6,239 IDR +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Aedas Homes, S.A (AEDAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €23.68 versus a price of €21.20, about +12% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AEDAS?
Our model-based fair value for Aedas Homes, S.A is €23.68 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €21.20.
What is the quality score of AEDAS?
Aedas Homes, S.A has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Aedas Homes, S.A (AEDAS)?
Aedas Homes, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €368M (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AEDAS?
The net profit margin of Aedas Homes, S.A is about 10.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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