Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Aegean Airlines S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.17 – €15.26 · fair‑value band €12.89 – €28.43 · the €11.60 price screens below the €19.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Aegean Airlines S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an airline company that engages in the provision of public airline transportation services in Greece and internationally.
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Aegean Airlines S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an airline company that engages in the provision of public airline transportation services in Greece and internationally. It transports passengers and cargo through scheduled and non-scheduled flights; and offers aviation applications, aircraft technical support, and ground handling aircraft services. The company also offers charter flights; and imports, markets, and leases aircraft and spare parts. Aegean Airlines S.A. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
Stock analysis
Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN) currently trades at €11.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.08, implying the stock looks roughly 39.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €34.60 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the €11.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.25, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €12.89 (bear) to €28.43 (bull), the price of €11.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aegean Airlines S.A. reported revenue of €1.7B in FY2025 versus €675M in FY2021, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was €148M in FY2025, compounding +134.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €1.1B · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) €1.65 · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% · Operating margin −1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at 64%, AEGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €12.89Fair Value €19.08Bull €28.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.1%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−51% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+78% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Is Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €19.08 versus a price of €11.60, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AEGN?
Our model-based fair value for Aegean Airlines S.A. is €19.08 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.60.
What is the quality score of AEGN?
Aegean Airlines S.A. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €19.08 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.89, optimistic scenario €28.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aegean Airlines S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €19.08, about +64% upside versus a price of €11.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €12.89, optimistic scenario €28.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Aegean Airlines S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aegean Airlines S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AEGN use?
Our models discount Aegean Airlines S.A. at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aegean Airlines S.A. that is +9.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aegean Airlines S.A. grew +32.1 % a year. The price currently implies +9.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aegean Airlines S.A. (+9.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.85 %: that much free cash flow Aegean Airlines S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aegean Airlines S.A. it is €19.08 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €11.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aegean Airlines S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AEGN trades below its calculated fair value: price €11.60, fair value €19.08, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AEGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€19.08). For Aegean Airlines S.A. the two are €7.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aegean Airlines S.A. worth?
The market values Aegean Airlines S.A. at about €1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €11.60; our models calculate a fair value of €19.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AEGN?
Our models span a range for Aegean Airlines S.A.: cautious scenario €12.89, base €19.08, optimistic €28.43 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price €11.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AEGN?
Aegean Airlines S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €19.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aegean Airlines S.A. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 23.7%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AEGN from its 52-week high?
Aegean Airlines S.A. trades at €11.60, about 24% below its 52-week high of €15.36 and 7% above the low of €10.80 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €19.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aegean Airlines S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aegean Airlines S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €11.60, calculated fair value €19.08 (+64%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AEGN calculated?
We run Aegean Airlines S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €19.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Aegean Airlines S.A. currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Aegean Airlines S.A. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€12.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (€12.89 to €28.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Aegean Airlines S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
The market capitalisation of Aegean Airlines S.A. is €1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aegean Airlines S.A. is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Earnings per share at Aegean Airlines S.A. are €1.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
The net margin of Aegean Airlines S.A. is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aegean Airlines S.A. is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aegean Airlines S.A. is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
The operating margin of Aegean Airlines S.A. is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Revenue at Aegean Airlines S.A. is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN)?
Earnings per share at Aegean Airlines S.A. are growing +25.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN) carry?
The net debt of Aegean Airlines S.A. is €160K (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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