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Air France-KLM SA (AFR0) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Air France-KLM SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Air France-KLM SA
AFR0 · XETRALow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value €11.49 · Fairly valued (−1%)
!Quality 48/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +7.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 46/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.02 – €54.10 · fair‑value band €6.95 – €17.32 · the €11.62 price screens above the €11.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Air France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance, and component support services, including electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, and other services.
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Air France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance, and component support services, including electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, and other services. The company provides its services under the Air France, KLM, and Transavia brand names. It operates in France, rest of Europe, North Africa, the Caribbean, West Indies, French Guyana, Indian Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, North America, Mexico, French Polynesia, South America, Asia, and New Caledonia. Air France-KLM SA was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Air France-KLM SA (AFR0) currently trades at €11.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.49, implying the stock looks roughly 1.1% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €110.36 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the €11.62 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €19.44, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €6.95 (bear) to €17.32 (bull), the price of €11.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Air France-KLM SA reported revenue of €33.0B in FY2025 versus €26.4B in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025, compounding +29.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €3.5B · P/E ratio 2.1 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) €5.51 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 93.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at −1%, AFR0 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.95
Fair Value €11.49
Bull €17.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.88 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€29.11
€41.22
€58.62
77
Growth DCF
€29.53
€40.31
€54.92
76
Owner Earnings
€20.46
€28.29
€39.55
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€29.11
€41.22
€58.62
77
Owner Earnings
€20.46
€28.29
€39.55
74
5Y Revenue Exit
€55.74
€92.38
€139.37
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
€123.46
€217.34
€326.97
71
5Y P/E Exit
€67.22
€113.55
€161.84
67
10Y Revenue Exit
€43.37
€73.86
€114.98
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
€87.36
€158.06
€253.19
64
10Y P/E Exit
€52.49
€88.13
€131.53
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€41.28
€120.01
€158.48
62
Lynch FV
€24.90
€35.57
€46.24
58
PEG = 1.0
€24.90
€35.57
€46.24
55
EPV
€59.97
€68.71
€76.25
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€0.0700
€0.1300
€0.2000
64
DDM Multi-Stage
€0.0700
€0.1100
€0.1400
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€95.60
€127.47
€159.34
63
P/S Multiple
€77.39
€103.19
€128.99
58
P/B Multiple
€3.83
€5.11
€6.39
55
EV/EBIT
€102.89
€135.65
€168.41
66
EV/EBITDA
€200.43
€265.71
€330.98
67
EV/Revenue
€74.75
€104.82
€134.88
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€0.5700
€0.7600
€1.14
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€29.53
€40.31
€54.92
76
Rev-Margin DCF
€55.74
€91.78
€132.10
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€8.32
€19.44
€914.64
61
ROIC Compounder
€59.97
€68.71
€76.25
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€77.25
€110.36
€143.46
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 114% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%
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Compare Air France-KLM SA with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $79.91 | $115.82 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $109.82 | $136.89 | +25% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €22.62 | €47.05 | +108% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $39.24 | $14.76 | −62% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹4,973 | ₹3,073 | −38% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 6.66 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +18% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.81 | ¥22.78 | +292% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $51.29 | $106.79 | +108% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.93 | ¥2.78 | −44% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.72 | €9.90 | +28% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Air France-KLM SA (AFR0) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.49 versus a price of €11.62, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AFR0?
Our model-based fair value for Air France-KLM SA is €11.49 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.62.
What is the quality score of AFR0?
Air France-KLM SA has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.49 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.95, optimistic scenario €17.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Air France-KLM SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.49, about −1% upside versus a price of €11.62 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €6.95, optimistic scenario €17.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
Air France-KLM SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €33.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Air France-KLM SA pay a dividend?
Air France-KLM SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Air France-KLM SA would have to grow free cash flow by -15.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFR0 use?
Our models discount Air France-KLM SA at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Air France-KLM SA that is -15.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Air France-KLM SA (AFR0) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Air France-KLM SA grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -15.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Air France-KLM SA (-15.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.86 %: that much free cash flow Air France-KLM SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Air France-KLM SA it is €11.49 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €11.62. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Air France-KLM SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AFR0 trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.62, fair value €11.49, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFR0?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.49). For Air France-KLM SA the two are €0.1213 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Air France-KLM SA worth?
The market values Air France-KLM SA at about €3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €11.62; our models calculate a fair value of €11.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFR0?
Our models span a range for Air France-KLM SA: cautious scenario €6.95, base €11.49, optimistic €17.32 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price €11.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFR0?
Air France-KLM SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €11.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 13.6, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AFR0?
The PEG ratio of Air France-KLM SA is 0.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
Balance-sheet figures for Air France-KLM SA (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 93.3%, debt of 11.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFR0 from its 52-week high?
Air France-KLM SA trades at €11.62, about 23% below its 52-week high of €15.18 and 50% above the low of €7.72 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Air France-KLM SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Air France-KLM SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €11.62, calculated fair value €11.49 (−1%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFR0 calculated?
We run Air France-KLM SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Air France-KLM SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Air France-KLM SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€6.95 to €17.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Air France-KLM SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The market capitalisation of Air France-KLM SA is €3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Air France-KLM SA is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
Earnings per share at Air France-KLM SA are €5.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The dividend yield of Air France-KLM SA is 0.1% (payout 0.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The net margin of Air France-KLM SA is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Air France-KLM SA is 93.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Air France-KLM SA is 4.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
The operating margin of Air France-KLM SA is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Air France-KLM SA (AFR0)?
Revenue at Air France-KLM SA is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Air France-KLM SA (AFR0) carry?
The net debt of Air France-KLM SA is €163M (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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