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Alamos Gold Inc (AGI) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $12.3B

AG Alamos Gold Inc logo Alamos Gold Inc AGI · US
Price$31.10
Fair Value$27.83
Upside-10.5%
Quality53/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 51.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.40% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Wide moat 87/100
Evidence: High Range $15.63 – $59.61 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +1.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($15.63 to $59.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Our model range runs from $15.63 (bear) to $59.61 (bull), base $27.83. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$55.22 $6.34 Fair Value $27.83 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.34 – $55.22 · fair‑value band $15.63 – $59.61 · the $31.10 price screens above the $27.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Alamos Gold Inc (AGI) currently trades at $31.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.83, implying the stock looks roughly 10.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Alamos Gold Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 51.2%. Revenue grew 79.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $388M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $15.63 (bear case) to $59.61 (bull case); at $31.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -11%, AGI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $11.23 $21.29 $37.79 80
Residual Income $14.66 $20.94 $124.71 76
Rev-Margin DCF $11.05 $19.15 $36.09 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $11.87 $18.10 $37.95 38
Owner Earnings $23.23 $51.58 $111.09 31
5Y Revenue Exit $10.09 $16.87 $31.06 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $22.04 $41.04 $78.40 41
5Y P/E Exit $27.97 $66.73 $120.48 38
10Y Revenue Exit $10.43 $22.02 $29.48 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $19.50 $47.76 $98.81 37
10Y P/E Exit $23.82 $60.52 $123.02 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $14.40 $100.43 $140.94 54
Lynch FV $51.89 $74.12 $96.36 50
PEG = 1.0 $51.89 $74.12 $96.36 46
EPV $14.68 $16.96 $18.96 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8800 $1.83 $2.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8800 $1.54 $1.92 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $31.77 $42.36 $52.95 63
P/S Multiple $8.09 $10.79 $13.49 58
P/B Multiple $23.78 $31.70 $39.63 55
EV/EBIT $26.95 $35.60 $44.25 53
EV/EBITDA $24.92 $32.90 $40.87 54
EV/Revenue $8.56 $11.79 $15.03 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.28 $7.08 $10.57 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $11.23 $21.29 $37.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF $11.05 $19.15 $36.09 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.66 $20.94 $124.71 76
ROIC Compounder $19.11 $27.32 $34.06 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $66.86 $95.51 $124.17 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($95.51) versus Dividend Discount ($1.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $2.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +79.2%
Net margin 51.2%
Return on equity 25.9%
Free cash flow $271M FY2025
P/E ratio 15.8
More key figures
Operating margin 52.4%
EPS (TTM) $2.51
Dividend yield 0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +1,145%
Net cash $388M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 93
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 4
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 24
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 55
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alamos Gold Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $824M in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was $889M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.8B
Latest YoY
+34.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+30.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+19.4%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y)
+47.8%
Revenue +21.8%/yr
FY21 $824M
FY22 $821M
FY23 $1.0B
FY24 $1.3B
FY25 $1.8B
Net income
FY21 −$66.7M
FY22 $37.1M
FY23 $210M
FY24 $284M
FY25 $889M

AGI screens 11% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Alamos Gold Inc · Fair Value
$27.83 −11%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alamos Gold Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGI

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Gold · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 52% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 79% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.05× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.95× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 45.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 19 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 8 · sector 24

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $132.73 +19%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.36 ¥30.58 +8%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$191.93 C$154.33 -20%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $34.93 $50.66 +45%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$152.57 C$52.47 -66%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$284.75 C$97.76 -66%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $76.35 $88.63 +16%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $33.33 $59.06 +77%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.57 $34.62 +53%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$20.48 A$15.98 -22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alamos Gold Inc (AGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.83 versus a price of $31.10, about −11% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGI?
Our model-based fair value for Alamos Gold Inc is $27.83 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $31.10.
What is the quality score of AGI?
Alamos Gold Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alamos Gold Inc (AGI)?
Alamos Gold Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AGI?
The net profit margin of Alamos Gold Inc is about 51.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 51.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alamos Gold Inc pay a dividend?
Alamos Gold Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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