AGL Energy Limited (AGL) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AU · Market cap A$5.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$13.00 to A$9.87 (−24.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 20% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (A$6.29 to A$13.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from A$6.29 (bear) to A$13.45 (bull), base A$9.87. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 41/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.16 – A$11.21 · fair‑value band A$6.29 – A$13.45 · the A$8.23 price screens below the A$9.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
AGL Energy Limited (AGL) currently trades at A$8.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$9.87, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AGL Energy Limited generated revenue of A$14.3B at a net margin of -1.2%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.3%. Net debt stands at A$3.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$6.29 (bear case) to A$13.45 (bull case); at A$8.23, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at 20%, AGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$10.60) versus Asset-Based (A$4.84). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AGL Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies energy and other essential services in Australia. It operates through in segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments.
Full company description
AGL Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies energy and other essential services in Australia. It operates through in segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in the retailing of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, and solar and energy efficiency products and services; and selling, marketing, and branding of customer contact, as well as call center operations. It also operates power generation facilities, including coal, gas-fired, wind, hydro, solar, grid-scale batteries, and natural gas storage; and other firming and storage technology. In addition, the company is involved in the development projects. Further, it provides electric vehicle services, such as electricity plans, chargers, and subscriptions; and moving house services. It serves the residential, small and large businesses, wholesale, energy, telecommunications, and Netflix customers. The company was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AGL Energy Limited reported revenue of A$13.8B in FY2025 versus A$10.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$98.0M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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