AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AGL Energy Ltd stock A$9.91, price A$9.00, upside +10.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.04 – A$10.88 · fair‑value band A$7.64 – A$17.88 · the A$9.00 price screens below the A$9.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow AGL Energy in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether AGL Energy is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
AGL Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies energy and other essential services in Australia. It operates through in segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments.
Show moreShow less
The company engages in the retailing of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, and solar and energy efficiency products and services; and selling, marketing, and branding of customer contact, as well as call center operations.
It also operates power generation facilities, including coal, gas-fired, wind, hydro, solar, grid-scale batteries, and natural gas storage; and other firming and storage technology. In addition, the company is involved in the development projects.
Further, it provides electric vehicle services, such as electricity plans, chargers, and subscriptions; and moving house services. It serves the residential, small and large businesses, wholesale, energy, telecommunications, and Netflix customers.
The company was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) currently trades at A$9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$9.91, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.2%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$21.18 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$9.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.98, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$7.64 (bear) to A$17.88 (bull), the price of A$9.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
AGL Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$13.6B in FY2026 versus A$13.2B in FY2022, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$756M in FY2026, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.1B (≈ $4.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) A$1.12 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 10%, AGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$7.64Fair Value A$9.91BullA$17.88
Price A$9.00 · Upside +10.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2242 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.0436
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.0% vs 7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 11%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (46 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Regulated elements offer some stability while a weak moat in commoditized generation pairs with negative profitability and limited differentiation.
Main risk: The class action over offsets used in carbon-neutral products threatens the behind-the-meter renewables expansion and would hit revenue from green commercial offerings.
AGL is expanding behind-the-meter renewables and carbon-neutral products for commercial customers. It now faces a class action alleging misleading conduct over the offsets used in those offerings and plans to defend the case. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but does stronger compliance work here support the transition or expose limits in scaling green claims faster than verified results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)14.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AGL Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGL
Frequently asked questions
Is AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$9.91 versus a price of A$9.00, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AGL?
Our model-based fair value for AGL Energy Ltd is A$9.91 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$9.00.
What is the quality score of AGL?
AGL Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$9.91 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$7.64, optimistic scenario A$17.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGL Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$9.91, about +10% upside versus a price of A$9.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$7.64, optimistic scenario A$17.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
AGL Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$13.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does AGL Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
AGL Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
AGL Energy Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.5 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 44.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGL Energy Ltd it is A$9.91 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$9.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is AGL Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AGL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$9.00, fair value A$9.91, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$9.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$9.91). For AGL Energy Ltd the two are A$0.9100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGL Energy Ltd worth?
The market values AGL Energy Ltd at about A$6.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$9.00; our models calculate a fair value of A$9.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGL?
Our models span a range for AGL Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$7.64, base A$9.91, optimistic A$17.88 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$9.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGL?
AGL Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$9.91 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AGL?
The PEG ratio of AGL Energy Ltd is 1.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for AGL Energy Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGL from its 52-week high?
AGL Energy Ltd trades at A$9.00, about 10% below its 52-week high of A$10.05 and 14% above the low of A$7.89 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$9.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGL Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGL Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$9.00, calculated fair value A$9.91 (+10%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGL calculated?
We run AGL Energy Ltd through 16 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$9.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. AGL Energy Ltd currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$9.00. Our model-based fair value is A$9.91, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGL Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$7.64 to A$17.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) come from?
Earnings per share at AGL Energy Ltd grew +7.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AGL Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The market capitalisation of AGL Energy Ltd is A$6.1B (≈ $4.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AGL Energy Ltd is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
Earnings per share at AGL Energy Ltd are A$1.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The dividend yield of AGL Energy Ltd is 5.6% (payout 44.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The net margin of AGL Energy Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGL Energy Ltd is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGL Energy Ltd is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
The operating margin of AGL Energy Ltd is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
Revenue at AGL Energy Ltd is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AGL Energy Ltd (AGL)?
Earnings per share at AGL Energy Ltd are growing −42.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) generate?
The free cash flow of AGL Energy Ltd is −A$290M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AGL Energy Ltd (AGL) carry?
The net debt of AGL Energy Ltd is A$3.7B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch AGL Energy Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts AGL Energy Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026