Adecoagro SA (AGRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Adecoagro SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
Adecoagro SA
AGRO · US
Below-average quality, trading 24% below our fair value of $16.01.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Adecoagro SA is $16.01 per share against a price of $12.24, so the fair value sits 31% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +29.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (12/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($8.58 to $23.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.90 – $15.18 · fair‑value band $8.58 – $23.44 · the $12.24 price screens below the $16.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) currently trades at $12.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.01, implying the stock looks roughly 23.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.69 per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the $12.24 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.10, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Adecoagro SA generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 22.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: $8.58 (bear) to $23.44 (bull), the price of $12.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 31%, AGRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0138 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($7.69) versus Multiples ($0.9200). Highest evidence: 5Y EBITDA Exit (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming.
Full company description
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Adecoagro SA reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.3M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +7.6 % · buybacks/dilution +1.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AGRO, get fair value alerts →
Peer Group
Farm Products · 290 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Adecoagro SA deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM | $84.61 | $38.02 | −55% |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.15 | ¥47.42 | +18% |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $118.71 | $56.19 | −53% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $51.42 | $28.60 | −44% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥13.80 | ¥11.18 | −19% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 201.80 | kr 256.14 | +27% |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥201.06 | ¥143.09 | −29% |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 32.60 MYR | 23.34 MYR | −28% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 23.40 THB | 43.24 THB | +85% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 2,960 IDR | 6,818 IDR | +130% |
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