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AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of AGTech Holdings Limited $0.15, price $0.19, upside -22.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · Home Hong Kong

AH AGTech Holdings Limited logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AGTech Holdings Limited

AGTEF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $0.1500 · Overvalued (−22.4%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +28.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -14.7% net margin (FY2024)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.1932 $0.0056 Fair Value $0.1500 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0056 – $0.1932 · fair‑value band $0.1200 – $0.1900 · the $0.1932 price screens above the $0.1500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Digital Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments.

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AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Digital Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments. The Digital Payment and Related Businesses segment offers payment card and ancillary services, as well as e-wallet services; acquiring services for other payment service providers and merchants; engages in the sale and leasing of payment terminals and equipment; and other related services. The Digital Banking Business segment provides digital banking services for individuals and SMEs, including deposits, loans, transfers and cross-border remittances, cross-border e-commerce/supply chain financing, wealth management, etc.; internet securities investment services; insurance agency services; and other related services. The Lottery Operation segment engages in the sale and leasing of lottery hardware, including the provision of related after-sale services; offline lottery distribution and ancillary activities; and other integrated business. It offers local consumer services, such as lifestyle, culture and entertainment, marketing technical, and e-commerce services; and engages in travel agency and related businesses, as well as research, development, and sale of sports lottery terminals and systems. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. AGTech Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Ali Fortune Investment Holding Limited.

Stock analysis

AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF) currently trades at $0.1932, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1500, 22.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.2700 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.1932 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0200, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.1200 (bear) to $0.1900 (bull), the price of $0.1932 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AGTech Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$615M in FY2024 versus HK$162M in FY2020, a compound +39.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$90.4M in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap $2.3B · P/S ratio 1.66 · Net margin −14.7% · Return on equity −4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$713M · Revenue growth (YoY) +36.1% · Free cash flow HK$1.1B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 3,350% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −22%, AGTEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1200 Fair Value $0.1500 Bull $0.1900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.4800 78
Growth DCF $0.1700 $0.2700 $0.4200 77
5Y Revenue Exit $0.0800 $0.1000 $0.1200 74
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.4800 78
5Y Revenue Exit $0.0800 $0.1000 $0.1200 74
10Y Revenue Exit $0.1200 $0.1400 $0.1800 68
Multiples
EV/Revenue $0.0300 $0.0400 $0.0400 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0300 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.1700 $0.2700 $0.4200 77

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−111.3% (2019) → −11.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.1% a year for the price.

AGTEF screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with Evolution AB →

Compare AGTech Holdings Limited with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 50 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +155.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 36.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.88× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.16× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 2.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 68

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

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Lottomatica Group LTMC €26.54 €29.19 +10%
Super Group SGHC $11.72 $12.89 +10%
Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO $77.14 $102.32 +33%
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN $76.16 $105.50 +39%
Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI $19.87 $21.86 +10%
FDJ United FDJU €21.14 €23.25 +10%
Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL $9.89 $13.37 +35%

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AGTech Holdings Limited · Fair Value
$0.1500 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AGTech Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGTEF

Frequently asked questions

Is AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1500 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.1932, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGTEF?
Our model-based fair value for AGTech Holdings Limited is $0.1500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.1932.
What is the quality score of AGTEF?
AGTech Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1200, optimistic scenario $0.1900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGTech Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1500, about −22% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.1932 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1200, optimistic scenario $0.1900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
AGTech Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$713M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AGTech Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGTEF use?
Our models discount AGTech Holdings Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AGTech Holdings Limited that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AGTech Holdings Limited grew +28.6 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AGTech Holdings Limited (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.47 %: that much free cash flow AGTech Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGTech Holdings Limited it is $0.1500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1932. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AGTech Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AGTEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1932, fair value $0.1500, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGTEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1932); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1500). For AGTech Holdings Limited the two are $0.0432 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGTech Holdings Limited worth?
The market values AGTech Holdings Limited at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1932; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGTEF?
Our models span a range for AGTech Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.1200, base $0.1500, optimistic $0.1900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1932). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AGTech Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGTEF from its 52-week high?
AGTech Holdings Limited trades at $0.1932, at its 52-week high of $0.1932 and 3,350% above the low of $0.0056 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGTech Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGTech Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1932, calculated fair value $0.1500 (−22%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGTEF calculated?
We run AGTech Holdings Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AGTech Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.1932. Our model-based fair value is $0.1500, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGTech Holdings Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of AGTech Holdings Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
The market capitalisation of AGTech Holdings Limited is $2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AGTech Holdings Limited is 1.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
The net margin of AGTech Holdings Limited is −14.7% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGTech Holdings Limited is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGTech Holdings Limited is −2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF)?
Revenue at AGTech Holdings Limited is growing +36.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does AGTech Holdings Limited (AGTEF) hold?
AGTech Holdings Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$2.5B net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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