AHES GMYO (AHSGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AHES GMYO is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range 4.71 TRY – 996,130 TRY · fair‑value band 6.61 TRY – 13.55 TRY · the 17.09 TRY price screens above the 9.32 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Ahes Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi Anonim Sirketi engages in the real estate, construction, and contracting and engineering businesses in Turkey. It invests in and develops hotel, commercial, and residential real estate projects. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
AHES GMYO (AHSGY) currently trades at 17.09 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.32 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 83.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 46.44 TRY per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the 17.09 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 8.53 TRY, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 6.61 TRY (bear) to 13.55 TRY (bull), the price of 17.09 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AHES GMYO reported revenue of 524M TRY in FY2025 versus 36.6M TRY in FY2021, a compound +94.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.1B TRY in FY2025, compounding +90.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 13.9B TRY (≈ $286M) · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 23.9 · EPS (TTM) 4.26 TRY · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 597% · Return on equity 41.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −45%, AHSGY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.61 TRYFair Value 9.32 TRYBull 13.55 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.95 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+355.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+134.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +68.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+67.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.911% → 75%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 214% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)41% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)66% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)4.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.55× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AHES GMYO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHSGY
Frequently asked questions
Is AHES GMYO (AHSGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9.32 TRY versus a price of 17.09 TRY, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AHSGY?
Our model-based fair value for AHES GMYO is 9.32 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.09 TRY.
What is the quality score of AHSGY?
AHES GMYO has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9.32 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.61 TRY, optimistic scenario 13.55 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AHES GMYO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9.32 TRY, about −45% upside versus a price of 17.09 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.61 TRY, optimistic scenario 13.55 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
AHES GMYO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 524M TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does AHES GMYO pay a dividend?
AHES GMYO currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AHES GMYO would have to grow free cash flow by +35.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +94.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AHSGY use?
Our models discount AHES GMYO at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AHES GMYO that is +35.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AHES GMYO (AHSGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at AHES GMYO grew +94.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AHES GMYO (AHSGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AHES GMYO (+35.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.85 %: that much free cash flow AHES GMYO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AHES GMYO it is 9.32 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 17.09 TRY. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AHES GMYO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AHSGY trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.09 TRY, fair value 9.32 TRY, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHSGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.09 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9.32 TRY). For AHES GMYO the two are 7.77 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AHES GMYO worth?
The market values AHES GMYO at about 13.9B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 17.09 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 9.32 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHSGY?
Our models span a range for AHES GMYO: cautious scenario 6.61 TRY, base 9.32 TRY, optimistic 13.55 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 17.09 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AHSGY?
AHES GMYO trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 9.32 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for AHES GMYO (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 41.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to AHES GMYO?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AHES GMYO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 17.09 TRY, calculated fair value 9.32 TRY (−45%), Quality Score 71/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHSGY calculated?
We run AHES GMYO through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 9.32 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. AHES GMYO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with AHES GMYO right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (13.55 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (6.61 TRY to 13.55 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AHES GMYO
How large is the market capitalisation of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The market capitalisation of AHES GMYO is 13.9B TRY (≈ $286M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AHES GMYO is 23.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
Earnings per share at AHES GMYO are 4.26 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The dividend yield of AHES GMYO is 0.4% (payout 1.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The net margin of AHES GMYO is 597% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AHES GMYO is 41.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AHES GMYO is 8.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
The operating margin of AHES GMYO is 66.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
Revenue at AHES GMYO is growing +22.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +134%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AHES GMYO (AHSGY)?
Earnings per share at AHES GMYO are growing +21.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AHES GMYO (AHSGY) carry?
The net debt of AHES GMYO is 231M TRY (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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