Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 2, 2026: fair value of Senmiao Technology Ltd $2.70, price $2.00, upside +35.1%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Senmiao Technology Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.02 – $115.00 · fair‑value band $1.56 – $4.90 · the $2.00 price screens below the $2.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Senmiao Technology in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Senmiao Technology is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Senmiao Technology Limited engages in the automobile transaction and related services business in the People's Republic of China. It also provides car rental services to individual customers; and auto finance solutions through financing leases.
Show more
Senmiao Technology Limited engages in the automobile transaction and related services business in the People's Republic of China. It also provides car rental services to individual customers; and auto finance solutions through financing leases. In addition, the company engages in automobile sales comprising sale of new purchased or used cars; and the provision of supporting services. Further, the company offers new energy vehicles leasing, automobile purchase, and management services, such as ride-hailing driver training, and assisting with a series of administrative procedures, as well as credit assessment, installation of GPS devices, ride-hailing driver qualification, and other administrative procedures. Senmiao Technology Limited was founded in 2014 and is based in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS) currently trades at $2.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.70, implying the stock looks roughly 26.0% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.56 (bear) to $4.90 (bull), the price of $2.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Senmiao Technology Ltd reported revenue of $3.4M in FY2025 versus $2.2M in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0M · P/S ratio 1.91 · EPS (TTM) $−3.04 · Net margin −110% · Return on equity −136% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.9% · Operating margin −306% · Revenue (TTM) $3.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 35%, AIHS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.56Fair Value $2.70Bull $4.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.5%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.8% (2020) → −114.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−27.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −29.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 95 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+35% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−45% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−116% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.91× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF12.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)80· sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 64
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.70 versus the last price from Sep 2, 2026 of $2.00, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AIHS?
Our model-based fair value for Senmiao Technology Ltd is $2.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 2, 2026): $2.00.
What is the quality score of AIHS?
Senmiao Technology Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $4.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Senmiao Technology Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.70, about +35% upside versus the last price from Sep 2, 2026 of $2.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $4.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
Senmiao Technology Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Senmiao Technology Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -27.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -26.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIHS use?
Our models discount Senmiao Technology Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Senmiao Technology Ltd that is -27.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Senmiao Technology Ltd grew -26.4 % a year. The price currently implies -27.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Senmiao Technology Ltd (-27.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.76 %: that much free cash flow Senmiao Technology Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Senmiao Technology Ltd it is $2.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.00. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Senmiao Technology Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AIHS trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.00, fair value $2.70, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIHS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.70). For Senmiao Technology Ltd the two are $0.6998 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Senmiao Technology Ltd worth?
The market values Senmiao Technology Ltd at about $6.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.00; our models calculate a fair value of $2.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIHS?
Our models span a range for Senmiao Technology Ltd: cautious scenario $1.56, base $2.70, optimistic $4.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Senmiao Technology Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIHS from its 52-week high?
Senmiao Technology Ltd trades at $2.00, about 48% below its 52-week high of $3.87 and 96% above the low of $1.02 (as of Sep 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Senmiao Technology Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Senmiao Technology Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.00, calculated fair value $2.70 (+35%), Quality Score 35/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIHS calculated?
We run Senmiao Technology Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Senmiao Technology Ltd currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 2, 2026 and stands at $2.00. Our model-based fair value is $2.70, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Senmiao Technology Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($1.56 to $4.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Senmiao Technology Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The market capitalisation of Senmiao Technology Ltd is $6.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Senmiao Technology Ltd is 1.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
Earnings per share at Senmiao Technology Ltd are $−3.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The net margin of Senmiao Technology Ltd is −110% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Senmiao Technology Ltd is −136% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Senmiao Technology Ltd is −47.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
The operating margin of Senmiao Technology Ltd is −306% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS)?
Revenue at Senmiao Technology Ltd is growing −20.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Senmiao Technology Ltd (AIHS) hold?
Senmiao Technology Ltd holds more cash than debt, $463K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Senmiao Technology Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Senmiao Technology Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026